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Trainer profile

Paul Attwater

179 runners in the last 5 seasons · 41 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 355 days ago 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2022
9–179
Wins / Runs
5%
Strike rate
n=179
39 (22%)
Placed
0.69
Fair A/E
n=179 · 0.59 incl. margin
−105.62
£1 level stake
n=179 at SP · −59.0%
£184k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.69).

Deterministic profile computed from 179 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Edward Greatrex: 7.8% from 51
The read

Edward Greatrex rides 28% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.8% vs 5%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (9.1%, n=33). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 5: Fair A/E 0.34 across 85 runners (2.4% strike, −66.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%+0.0
n=40 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.3%−0.7
n=23 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.0
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+5.0
n=20 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
10%
n=10 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −7.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−5.0
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.0
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At trips under 6f 9.1% vs 5% · n=33
In Class 5 2.4% vs 5% · n=85
With Edward Greatrex 7.8% vs 5% · n=51
On Standard (AW) going 2.8% vs 5% · n=107
Off a 31-60-day break 7.5% vs 5% · n=40
In Class 4 7% vs 5% · n=43
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 176 9 5.1% −102.62
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00
Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 107 3 2.8% −89.12
Good to Firm 29 3 10.3% +3.00
Good 25 2 8% −11.50
Soft 7 0 0% −7.00
Good to Soft 6 1 16.7% +4.00
Firm 3 0 0% −3.00
Heavy 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW) 24 1 4.2% −12.00
Kempton (AW) 22 1 4.5% −19.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 22 1 4.5% −19.12
Lingfield (AW) 19 0 0% −19.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Windsor 14 2 14.3% +6.00
Nottingham 6 1 16.7% +1.00
Newcastle (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00
Bath 5 0 0% −5.00
Ascot 5 1 20% +5.00
Newbury 4 1 25% +8.00
Brighton 4 0 0% −4.00
Haydock 4 0 0% −4.00
Leicester 3 0 0% −3.00
Goodwood 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 85 2 2.4% −66.00
Class 4 43 3 7% −23.12
Class 6 27 1 3.7% −20.50
Class 2 11 1 9.1% −1.00
Class 3 9 2 22.2% +9.00
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 1 10% 0.33 −7.00
2nd–3rd fav 24 3 12.5% 0.80 −9.12
4th–6th fav 61 4 6.6% 0.97 −20.50
7th+ in betting 84 1 1.2% 0.48 −69.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Brosay (GB)from Diego Dias · then Charlie Pike 12 3 6 24 Oct 25
Dayzee (IRE)from Barry Brennan 10 1 1 20 Oct 25
Lil Brother (GB)then Michael Keady 8 2 4 10 Oct 25
Timeless Spirit (GB)then Stephanie Cassidy 8 0 3 16 Aug 25
Over Spiced (GB)from Tom Clover · then Grace Harris 8 0 2 28 Mar 25
Blue Sky Boy (IRE)from Dominic Ffrench Davis · then Tristan Davidson 7 0 2 27 Mar 25
Blackwaterfoot (USA)from Dominic Ffrench Davis · then Charlie Pike 6 1 1 23 Oct 25
Muddy Mooy (IRE)from Barry Brennan · then Charlie Pike 6 1 4 20 Jul 25
Rory's Gold (IRE)then Simon Waugh 6 0 1 9 Jul 25
Tiny Rebel (GB) 6 0 1 28 Apr 25
Brodie's Boy (FR)from Barry Brennan · then Tony Carroll 6 0 1 15 Apr 25
Jake Loves Laura (GB)from Dominic Ffrench Davis · then Clare Hobson 6 0 1 11 Mar 25
All 41 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 41 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dominic Ffrench Davis (7) and Barry Brennan (6); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

27 have since run for another yard, most often for Charlie Pike (15) and Tony Carroll (3); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
01300010111011007
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderEdward Greatrex
28% of all rides
7.8% SR · A/E 1.00
RiderRWSR£1
Edward Greatrex 51 4 7.8% −17.62
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
9
Archived wins
£184k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 8 wins
Brosay (GB) — Racing League Race 25 Handicap Windsor · Aug 2025 · Class 3
£25,770
Brosay (GB) — Racing To School Reaches 250,000 Handicap Ascot · Sep 2025 · Class 2
£18,039
Bella's Path (FR) — Irish EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) Kempton (AW) · Sep 2025 · Class 3
£8,246
Notable horses
Brosay (GB) Lil Brother (GB) Dayzee (IRE) Blackwaterfoot (USA) Muddy Mooy (IRE) Bella's Path (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Land Force (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,452 runs since 2008 (155 horses).
Tasleet (GB) 25% · 3–12
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,172 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15.9% from 107. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 354.
Ghaiyyath (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 15.5% of 1,101 runs since 2008 (182 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19% from 305. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 12.2% from 287.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,628 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Oasis Dream (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,999 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Adaay (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,957 runs since 2008 (192 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6% from 497.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 179 · newest first

The latest 50 of 179 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 July 2024 to 30 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
30 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Midnight Ravens (IRE)J: Kieran Shoemark Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 9/2
24 Oct 25 Doncaster Brosay (GB)J: Harry Davies William Hill Each Way Extra HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 12 ran 12th 12/1
23 Oct 25 Nottingham Blackwaterfoot (USA)J: Edward Greatrex PricedUp The Flat HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Heavy · 15 ran 13th 28/1
22 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) Miss Allsorts (IRE)J: Edward Greatrex Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 7th 125/1
20 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Lady V (IRE)J: Edward Greatrex Hotel & Conferencing At Wolverhampton Racecourse EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 66/1
20 Oct 25 Plumpton Dayzee (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Betty Chantler And Trevor Downing Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 17/2
16 Oct 25 Brighton Love You Millions (IRE)J: William Cox Buzz Bingo Full House HandicapClass 6 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 33/1
15 Oct 25 Nottingham Greatbritishdream (GB)J: Edward Greatrex British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 12/1
10 Oct 25 York Lil Brother (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Parsonage Hotel And Cloisters Spa NurseryClass 3 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 9th 8/1
09 Oct 25 Bath Wood Whisperer (IRE)J: Kieran O'Neill BetWright Safer Gambling HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 15/2
08 Oct 25 Kempton (AW) Tasdeed (FR)J: Kieran O'Neill Ted Palmer Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 10th 50/1
07 Oct 25 Brighton Love You Millions (IRE)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin JenningsBet In Brighton HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 40/1
06 Oct 25 Yarmouth Bella's Path (FR)J: Oisin Murphy bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 5th 7/4F
03 Oct 25 Ascot Brosay (GB)J: Harry Davies BetMGM HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 4/1
26 Sep 25 Haydock Lil Brother (GB)J: Hollie Doyle Thomas Hardie Commercials 40th Year Anniversary NurseryClass 3 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 3/1F
23 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Greatbritishdream (GB)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Ben Woollacott Memorial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 200/1
23 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Redbud Sixteen (IRE)J: Rossa Ryan Ben Woollacott Memorial Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 10/3
20 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Blackwaterfoot (USA)J: Pierre-Louis Jamin Bridey Jo Barbers Wombourne HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 15/2
20 Sep 25 Newmarket Wood Whisperer (IRE)J: Jason Watson Turners Of Soham Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 5th 33/1
06 Sep 25 Ascot Brosay (GB)J: Harry Davies Racing To School Reaches 250,000 HandicapClass 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 1st 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Attwater's strike rate?
Paul Attwater has won 9 of 179 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Paul Attwater?
Edward Greatrex, with 51 runners since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (7.8%).
What is Paul Attwater's Fair A/E?
0.69, from 179 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).