Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.5%+5.2
n=16 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +12.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
22.2%+14.9
n=9 · A/E 5.74 · £1 +19.30
Debutants · first career start
7.7%+0.4
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.60
First-time headgear · true-first definition
33.3%+26.0
n=3 · A/E 7.53 · £1 +13.80
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +1.40
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.3%+7.0
n=7 · A/E 1.78 · £1 +4.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.3
n=1 · A/E — · £1 —
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races5.1% vs 7.3% · n=39
With a new jockey booking9.4% vs 7.3% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat3925.1%−7.70
Hurdle2150%+2.40
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)1915.3%−2.20
Good900%−7.00
Soft7114.3%+5.50
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Heavy3133.3%+1.40
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)1317.7%+3.80
Saint-Cloud (FR)10110%+3.50
Chantilly (FR)700%−6.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)500%−5.00
Longchamp (FR)400%−4.00
Strasbourg11100%+3.40
Enghien (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%—
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3133.3%0.00+1.40
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav5120%2.37+6.50
7th+ in betting2114.8%1.47−4.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f1500%−15.00
1m2f – 1m4f1200%−9.00
1m5f – 2m7114.3%+4.50
6f – 7f5120%+11.80
2m1f – 2m4f2150%+2.40
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008300%—
2010500%−5.00
2011800%−8.00
2012400%−4.00
2013300%−3.00
20142150%+2.40
20155120%+11.80
2016400%−4.00
20173133.3%+8.50
2018100%−1.00
2019200%−2.00
2023100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1119.1%+5.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners1915.3%−2.20
17+ runners900%−9.00
8-10 runners6116.7%+6.50
11-13 runners400%−4.00
2-4 runners2150%+3.40
5-7 runners100%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 21 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001700000020330
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Chartbreaker (FR) — Prix de Feucherolles (Claimer) (4yo+) (Turf) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2017
£8,120
Battante (FR) — Prix des Valbasses (Handicap) (5yo+) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Nov 2015
£7,364
Audientia (GER) — Prix General Le Bleu (Hurdle) Strasbourg · Mar 2014
Progeny have won 15.7% of 127 runs since 2008 (13 horses).
Banyumanik (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.6% of 152 runs since 2008 (12 horses).
Muhtathir (GB)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,718 runs since 2008 (494 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.9% from 967.
Kalatos (GER)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 5.6% of 71 runs since 2008 (16 horses).
Acatenango (GER)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9.4% of 637 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.8% from 126.
American Post (GB)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,964 runs since 2008 (263 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.9% from 108.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 45 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Frau Marion Rotering's 45 archived runners, from 10 July 2005 to 12 October 2023, newest first — 3 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Frau Marion Rotering's strike rate?
Frau Marion Rotering has won 3 of 41 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Frau Marion Rotering's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 36 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Frau Marion Rotering·SR 7.3%·A/E 0.76
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