Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.09).
Deterministic profile computed from 238 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026
The read
Debutants struggle at 2.9% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.74). The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (9.5%, n=42). 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Totepool Two-year-old Trophy at Redcar (Oct 2009, £94,692). The stable star of the record: Moscow Eight (IRE) — 10 wins from 66 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.7%−2.6
n=54 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −22.20
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
2.9%−3.4
n=35 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −25.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.3
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
25%
n=8 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +0.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.3
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants2.9% vs 6.3% · n=35
Over 1m2f – 1m4f9.5% vs 6.3% · n=42
Over 1m – 1m1f4.2% vs 6.3% · n=48
On Soft going7.8% vs 6.3% · n=51 · A/E 1.39
Off a 15-30-day break7.7% vs 6.3% · n=65 · A/E 1.23
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good7345.5%−37.00
Standard (AW)6746%−47.90
Soft5147.8%−21.00
Good to Soft3738.1%+3.20
Heavy800%−8.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)4224.8%−31.50
Curragh2400%−24.00
Chantilly (FR)1700%−17.00
Naas1715.9%−4.00
Deauville (FR)1417.1%−2.80
Longchamp (FR)1218.3%−3.60
Leopardstown1218.3%+1.00
Down Royal1100%−11.00
Navan1000%−10.00
Fairyhouse8225%+8.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)7114.3%+13.60
Sligo7114.3%−2.50
Killarney500%−5.00
Tipperary500%−5.00
Galway5120%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11100%−11.00
Class 43266.7%+5.60
Class 5300%−3.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9222.2%1.07−0.40
2nd–3rd fav30413.3%1.01−8.10
4th–6th fav52713.5%1.70+9.20
7th+ in betting14721.4%0.52−113.40
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f10765.6%−42.20
1m – 1m1f4824.2%−26.60
1m2f – 1m4f4249.5%−21.00
Under 6f29310.3%−10.90
1m5f – 2m1200%−12.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225036%−9.80
20237633.9%−49.90
202465710.8%−21.50
20253326.1%−17.50
20261400%−14.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps136139.6%−24.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners7111.4%−67.00
11-13 runners6334.8%−33.30
8-10 runners5223.8%−37.90
17+ runners32412.5%+18.50
5-7 runners19526.3%+8.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 51 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 51 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 44 had their first archived run for this yard.
18 have since run for another yard, most often for Mark Fahey (2); 33 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3380220137580025
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
267
Archived wins
13
Pattern / graded wins
£4.54m
Prize money
2005
Best season · 33 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Lucky Like (FR) — Totepool Two-year-old Trophy (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2009 · Listed
£94,692
Vital Equine (IRE) — Sportsman Champagne Stakes (Group 2) York · Sep 2006 · Group 2
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,851 runs since 2008 (351 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 148.
Acclamation (GB)10% · 3–30
Progeny have won 10% of 19,692 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 194.
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,139 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 847.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,462 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,462 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 31 January 2005 to 20 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is E J O'Neill's strike rate?
E J O'Neill has won 15 of 238 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does E J O'Neill do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 42 runners (4.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is E J O'Neill in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is E J O'Neill's Fair A/E?
1.09, from 238 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
E J O'Neill·SR 6.3%·A/E 1.09
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