Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.21).
Deterministic profile computed from 175 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceTabitha Worsley: 0.6% from 174Claiming riders: 0.7%
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 0.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.25 and −123.00 to a £1 stake over 152 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tabitha Worsley rides 99% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (0.6%, A/E 0.21). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.00 across 73 runners (0% strike, −73.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 0.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−0.6
n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−0.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−0.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−0.6
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−0.6
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0.7%+0.1
n=152 · A/E 0.25 · £1 −123.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 0.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break1.8% vs 0.6% · n=55 · A/E 0.53
Over 2m1f – 2m4f1.5% vs 0.6% · n=65 · A/E 0.45
On Good going0% vs 0.6% · n=73 · A/E 0.00
In Chase races0% vs 0.6% · n=72 · A/E 0.00
Over 2m5f – 3m0% vs 0.6% · n=57 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9911%−70.00
Chase7200%−72.00
NH Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good7300%−73.00
Good to Soft4612.2%−17.00
Soft4100%−41.00
Heavy1200%−12.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen1900%−19.00
Worcester1700%−17.00
Huntingdon1400%−14.00
Ffos Las1400%−14.00
Ludlow1300%−13.00
Southwell1300%−13.00
Fontwell1200%−12.00
Uttoxeter1000%−10.00
Chepstow800%−8.00
Stratford800%−8.00
Hereford700%−7.00
Warwick600%−6.00
Bangor-on-Dee400%−4.00
Lingfield400%−4.00
Sedgefield400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 513710.7%−108.00
Class 43300%−33.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav500%0.00−5.00
4th–6th fav4200%0.00−42.00
7th+ in betting12710.8%0.46−98.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f6511.5%−36.00
2m5f – 3m5700%−57.00
1m5f – 2m3300%−33.00
Over 3m2000%−20.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224000%−40.00
20233900%−39.00
20244200%−42.00
20253200%−32.00
20262214.5%+7.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps15410.6%−125.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners7100%−71.00
5-7 runners4600%−46.00
11-13 runners3712.7%−8.00
14-16 runners1300%−13.00
2-4 runners600%−6.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 20 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nick Gifford (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
006000000000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,531 runs since 2008 (290 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 221. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.3% from 289. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Progeny have won 8% of 3,566 runs since 2008 (358 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.6% from 333. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 125. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 179.
Whitmore's Conn (USA)0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 9% of 1,102 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 329.
Ballingarry (IRE)0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 10.4% of 2,430 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 125.
Progeny have won 12% of 1,827 runs since 2008 (203 horses).
Shantou (USA)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,819 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 273 · newest first
The latest 50 of 273 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 May 2012 to 10 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Georgie Howell's strike rate?
Georgie Howell has won 1 of 175 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 0.6% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Georgie Howell?
Tabitha Worsley, with 174 runners since 2022 — 99% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (0.6%).
What is Georgie Howell's Fair A/E?
0.21, from 174 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Georgie Howell·SR 0.6%·A/E 0.21
KTB
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