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Trainer profile

Ian Duncan

749 runners in the lifetime window · 82 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
53–749
Wins / Runs
7.1%
Strike rate
n=749
164 (22%)
Placed
0.96
Fair A/E
n=748 · 0.83 incl. margin
−283.47
£1 level stake
n=749 at SP · −37.8%
£558k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96).

Deterministic profile computed from 749 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb Derek Fox: 5.8% from 120
The read

The record is strongest at Carlisle (12.5%, n=56), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −73.50 to a £1 stake over 195 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Derek Fox rides 16% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.8%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (16.9%, n=77) and beyond 3m (14.7%, n=75). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 99 runners, 7.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.17 across 158 runners (0.6% strike, −117.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Jessiemac (IRE) — 5 wins from 41 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.6%−2.5
n=195 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −73.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
5%−2.1
n=20 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=59 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −59.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.6%−1.5
n=36 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +39.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
34.8%
n=23 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +0.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.8%−1.3
n=277 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −127.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.1
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 8-14-day break 16.9% vs 7.1% · n=77
Over 1m5f – 2m 0.6% vs 7.1% · n=158
Beyond 3m 14.7% vs 7.1% · n=75
In NH Flat races 0% vs 7.1% · n=99
With debutants 0% vs 7.1% · n=59
At Carlisle 12.5% vs 7.1% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 414 34 8.2% −103.47
Chase 236 19 8.1% −81.00
NH Flat 99 0 0% −99.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 264 17 6.4% −73.62
Good 171 9 5.3% −83.75
Good to Soft 153 11 7.2% −57.67
Heavy 149 16 10.7% −56.43
Good to Firm 8 0 0% −8.00
Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ayr 313 24 7.7% −57.99
Hexham 75 3 4% −59.56
Perth 62 2 3.2% −54.42
Carlisle 56 7 12.5% −6.25
Kelso 54 5 9.3% +0.50
Newcastle 42 4 9.5% −3.00
Musselburgh 32 3 9.4% −13.75
Sedgefield 26 0 0% −26.00
Cartmel 14 2 14.3% −1.00
Down Royal 13 0 0% −13.00
Catterick 12 1 8.3% −7.50
Downpatrick 12 0 0% −12.00
Wetherby 9 1 11.1% −4.00
Doncaster 7 0 0% −7.00
Bangor-on-Dee 5 1 20% −1.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 331 29 8.8% −130.35
Class 5 256 15 5.9% −76.62
Class 3 72 5 6.9% −40.50
Class 2 23 3 13% +10.00
Class 6 23 1 4.3% −2.00
Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 28 9 32.1% 1.13 +1.70
2nd–3rd fav 123 17 13.8% 0.84 −37.67
4th–6th fav 254 22 8.7% 1.24 −28.50
7th+ in betting 344 5 1.5% 0.54 −219.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
78.8% completed · 650 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 236 71.6% 13 7 46 0 1
Hurdle 414 82.9% 10 5 56 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Jessiemac (IRE) 41 5 13 21 Apr 23
Finaghy Ayr (IRE) 31 4 9 20 Nov 19
Celestial Fashion (GB) 29 5 11 1 Nov 26
Maura Jeanne (GB) 29 2 7 31 Oct 26
No No Mac (IRE)from Charlie Longsdon 28 2 8 5 Jun 21
Cave Hill (GB) 26 2 4 31 Oct 26
Imperial Prince (IRE)from Sandy Thomson 25 0 4 1 Mar 21
Lochnell (IRE)from Jim Goldie 24 5 11 9 Mar 18
Golden Sparkle (IRE) 24 4 12 15 Apr 16
Ballycolin (GB) 24 1 4 5 Oct 14
King Of Fashion (IRE) 23 2 7 12 Jan 23
Tread Softly Now (GB) 22 4 9 23 May 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 82 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from R Mike Smith (2) and Tim Vaughan (2); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 56 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8965500008712
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDerek Fox
16% of all rides
5.8% SR · A/E 0.99
RiderRWSR£1
Derek Fox 120 7 5.8% −62.50
Conor O'Farrell 72 2 2.8% −38.00
Graham Watters 72 8 11.1% +15.08
Alan Doyle 66 4 6.1% −34.25
Callum Bewley 58 6 10.3% −24.25
Thomas Willmott 33 1 3% −28.50
Brian Hughes 30 1 3.3% −27.62
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
56
Archived wins
£632k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Milborough (IRE) — Betfred Eider (Handicap Chase) Newcastle · Feb 2015 · Class 2
£43,792
Another Rum (IRE) — National Hunt Amateurs' Novices' Chase Cheltenham · Mar 2005 · Class 2
£29,000
Finaghy Ayr (IRE) — Northern Lights Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Carlisle · Dec 2017 · Class 2
£15,475
Notable horses
Jessiemac (IRE) Celestial Fashion (GB) Lochnell (IRE) Finaghy Ayr (IRE) Golden Sparkle (IRE) Tread Softly Now (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Samraan (USA) 10.6% · 5–47
Progeny have won 6.1% of 131 runs since 2008 (23 horses).
Sholokhov (IRE) 11.1% · 5–45
Progeny have won 12.5% of 4,269 runs since 2008 (422 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.9% from 157.
Lahib (USA) 9.3% · 4–43
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Telescope (IRE) 13.2% · 5–38
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,915 runs since 2019 (297 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 1.9% from 106. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13% from 284.
Champs Elysees (GB) 13.9% · 5–36
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,127 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Kayf Tara (GB) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,755 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 867 · newest first

The latest 50 of 867 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 February 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Celestial Fashion (GB)J: Callum Bewley Pricedup Boosted Prices Daily Houghton Mares' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good · 4 ran 4th 40/1
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Cushendun (GB)J: Callum Bewley Pricedup Now With Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 28/1
31 Oct 26 Ayr Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Jack Power Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 9th 6/1
31 Oct 26 Ayr Cave Hill (GB)J: Sean Quinlan Bsb Structural Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 7/2
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Pony Express (GB)J: Callum Bewley GA Wilson Plastering Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 5 ran 5th 14/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Jack Dempsey (GB)J: William Maggs Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div II)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 20/1
20 Oct 26 Hexham The Jeweller's Pet (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 8th 20/1
20 Oct 26 Hexham Moira My Love (GB)J: Callum Bewley Download The At The Races App Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 5 ran 4th 100/1
07 Jun 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Callum Bewley Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 33/1
23 May 26 Cartmel Tread Softly Now (GB)J: Ryan Mania PSR Marquees Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 8/1
13 May 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Charlie Maggs Murrayshall Meetings And Events Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 18/1
13 May 26 Perth Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Callum Bewley Murrayshall Golf Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 20/1
06 May 26 Kelso Pony Express (GB)J: William Maggs Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 28/1
02 May 26 Hexham Adveram (GB)J: Ryan Mania Winchcombe Working Mens FC Tour 2026 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 15 ran 11th 40/1
02 May 26 Hexham Cave Hill (GB)J: Sean Quinlan Elizabeth Elliott Birthday Celebration Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 4th 12/1
24 Apr 26 Perth The Coffey Boy (IRE)J: Callum Bewley One Place. Every Race. Racing TV Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 7th 11/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Celestial Fashion (GB)J: Callum Bewley Join Racing TV Now Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 5 ran 5th 18/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Highland Fashion (GB)J: Callum Bewley Perth Racecourse Racing & Events Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 26.5f · Good · 12 ran 5th 14/1
24 Apr 26 Perth Jack Dempsey (GB)J: Callum Bewley GS Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 100/1
22 Apr 26 Perth Maura Jeanne (GB)J: Mr S Connor Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 6th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 22 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 31 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ian Duncan's strike rate?
Ian Duncan has won 53 of 749 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ian Duncan do best at?
Carlisle by strike rate: 7 wins from 56 runners (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Ian Duncan?
Derek Fox, with 120 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (5.8%).
Is Ian Duncan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ian Duncan's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 748 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).