Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%−0.9
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.4
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
16.7%+11.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +2.30
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E — · £1 +6.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−5.4
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1700%−15.00
Chase1516.7%−7.70
Flat5120%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2000%−19.00
Heavy1000%−9.00
Standard (AW)4125%−3.00
Good2150%+5.30
Good to Soft100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)1900%−19.00
Deauville (FR)3133.3%−2.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)300%−3.00
Nantes (FR)300%−3.00
Angers (FR)200%−1.00
Jallais11100%+6.30
Saint-Brieuc (FR)100%—
Chantilly (FR)100%−1.00
Enghien (FR)100%−1.00
Chateaubriant (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%—+6.30
4th–6th fav800%0.00−8.00
7th+ in betting2500%0.00−25.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f2613.8%−16.70
2m5f – 3m600%−6.00
1m2f – 1m4f2150%−1.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200811100%—
2011100%−1.00
201311100%+6.30
2014400%−4.00
2015100%−1.00
2016100%−1.00
2017200%−2.00
2018100%−1.00
2019300%−3.00
2020500%−5.00
2021500%−4.00
2022900%−8.00
2023200%−2.00
2024100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1715.9%−16.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners1300%−12.00
8-10 runners1000%−9.00
11-13 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners22100%+6.30
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 18 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 18 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M Seror (6); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001710000··0000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Happy Story (FR) — Prix de Manerbe (Handicap) (All-Weather) Deauville (FR) · Mar 2008
£6,250
Della Royal (FR) — Prix des Mauges Prix du Courrier de lOuest) (Chase) Jallais · Apr 2013
Progeny have won 7.8% of 3,307 runs since 2013 (315 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 225. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.1% from 195.
Dream Well (FR)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,165 runs since 2008 (135 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.2% from 210. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 0% from 111. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 190. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.5% from 185.
Sinndar (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,410 runs since 2008 (394 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.2% from 256. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.3% from 132.
Della Francesca (USA)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10% of 1,477 runs since 2008 (172 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13% from 338. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16% from 100. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.3% from 160.
Progeny have won 11.5% of 1,115 runs since 2014 (122 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5% from 119.
Poliglote (GB)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 15.6% of 4,224 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.8% from 234. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19% from 691. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 196.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 38 archived runs · newest first
Every one of J-L Bertin's 38 archived runners, from 30 June 2007 to 16 November 2024, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-L Bertin's strike rate?
J-L Bertin has won 2 of 37 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J-L Bertin's Fair A/E?
0.00, from 33 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J-L Bertin·SR 5.4%·A/E 0.00
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