Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them.
Deterministic profile computed from 115 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 7.1% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.22). The market has also underrated the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 1.18 across 76 runners (14.5% strike, +2.80 to a £1 stake). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grand Prix du Conseil General Des Alpes Maritimes - Defi Du Galop 2012 at Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) (Feb 2012, £31,250). The stable star of the record: Griraz (FR) — 7 wins from 21 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.1%−5.1
n=42 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−12.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
11.1%−1.1
n=27 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
13.3%+1.1
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +11.00
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +9.70
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−12.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
10%−2.2
n=40 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −4.70
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking8.7% vs 12.2% · n=69
Over 1m2f – 1m4f14.5% vs 12.2% · n=76
On Soft going14.3% vs 12.2% · n=49
In Class 110% vs 12.2% · n=40
In Group / Graded races10% vs 12.2% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1031413.6%+5.10
Hurdle1100%−10.00
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft49714.3%+6.50
Standard (AW)2015%−11.40
Good17211.8%+1.00
Heavy15320%+8.00
Good to Soft1417.1%−10.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)1616.3%−8.50
Cagnes-Sur-Mer16318.8%−8.70
Toulouse1119.1%+1.00
Chantilly (FR)1100%−11.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat9111.1%−6.00
Deauville (FR)8112.5%+0.60
Longchamp (FR)7114.3%+11.00
Auteuil (FR)500%−5.00
La Teste De Buch400%−3.00
Enghien (FR)400%−4.00
Royan La Palmyre3133.3%+15.00
Pau3133.3%+0.70
Marseille Borely3266.7%+13.20
Dax (FR)300%−3.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 140410%−4.70
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9222.2%0.00+9.70
2nd–3rd fav16318.8%1.67+5.80
4th–6th fav34411.8%1.43+1.60
7th+ in betting4112.4%0.68−23.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f761114.5%+2.80
2m1f – 2m4f1119.1%−2.40
1m5f – 2m10220%+10.70
1m – 1m1f1000%−9.00
6f – 7f800%−8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008200%—
2009200%−1.00
201010330%+13.00
201110220%+0.50
201216318.8%−6.00
2013800%−8.00
20143133.3%+7.00
20158112.5%+9.00
201610110%+0.80
2017900%−9.00
201811327.3%+13.80
2019700%−7.00
20201500%−15.00
2021300%−3.00
2022100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4524.4%−17.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2700%−27.00
8-10 runners25416%+7.60
11-13 runners2114.8%−11.50
2-4 runners20735%+19.70
17+ runners1516.7%+3.00
5-7 runners7114.3%+2.30
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 37 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 37 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive; 27 had their first archived run for this yard.
8 have since run for another yard, most often for P Sogorb (3); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
4380610132000103810
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Griraz (FR) — Grand Prix du Conseil General Des Alpes Maritimes - Defi Du Galop 2012 () Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) · Feb 2012 · Listed
£31,250
Star Victory (FR) — Grand Prix de Marseille () (3yo+) (Turf) Marseille Borely (FR) · Nov 2018 · Listed
£26,549
Star Victory (FR) — Grand Prix des Provinces-Prix Andre Baboin (Prix de Boulogne) () (4yo+) (Turf) Marseille Borely (FR) · Oct 2018 · Listed
Progeny have won 10.8% of 490 runs since 2008 (68 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.9% from 118.
Tot Ou Tard (IRE)15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 16% of 200 runs since 2008 (27 horses).
Solon (GER)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.7% of 367 runs since 2008 (54 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.1% from 111. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.7% from 106.
Elusive City (USA)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.7% of 8,431 runs since 2008 (636 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.4% from 1,123.
Kaldounevees (FR)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.9% of 669 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.2% from 164. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 152. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.7% from 106.
Deportivo (GB)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,285 runs since 2008 (125 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.7% from 407. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 101. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.8% from 226.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 116 · newest first
The latest 50 of 116 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 March 2007 to 26 February 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is J-L Dubord's strike rate?
J-L Dubord has won 14 of 115 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.2% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is J-L Dubord's Fair A/E?
1.00, from 90 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
J-L Dubord·SR 12.2%·A/E 1.00
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