Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95).
Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Hexham (12.5%, n=56), clear of the yard's 8% baseline. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (13.5%, n=37) and in Class 5 (12.1%, n=58). The record reads poorly in Class 4 — 2.9% over 35 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Chase races: Fair A/E 0.63 across 60 runners (6.7% strike, −33.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Cudgel (GB) — 6 wins from 52 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−8.0
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+25.3
n=3 · A/E 2.53 · £1 +2.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−8.0
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break13.5% vs 8% · n=37
In Class 42.9% vs 8% · n=35
At Hexham12.5% vs 8% · n=56
In Class 512.1% vs 8% · n=58
In Hurdle races10% vs 8% · n=40
In Chase races6.7% vs 8% · n=60 · A/E 0.63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase6046.7%−33.00
Hurdle40410%−7.38
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3438.8%−15.38
Soft2913.4%−23.50
Good to Soft27311.1%+3.00
Heavy10110%−4.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hexham56712.5%−11.38
Kelso900%−9.00
Carlisle800%−8.00
Perth600%−6.00
Catterick600%−6.00
Musselburgh600%−6.00
Sedgefield500%−5.00
Newcastle4125%+11.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 558712.1%−1.00
Class 43512.9%−32.38
Class 3700%−7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite500%0.00−5.00
2nd–3rd fav21523.8%1.39+2.62
4th–6th fav3825.3%0.70−17.00
7th+ in betting3612.8%1.12−21.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m4548.9%−14.00
2m1f – 2m4f2713.7%−12.00
1m5f – 2m21314.3%−7.38
Over 3m700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202229310.3%−9.00
20232229.1%−11.00
20242000%−20.00
202515213.3%+2.62
20261417.1%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7579.3%−18.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4112.4%−36.00
5-7 runners26415.4%+5.50
11-13 runners24312.5%−0.88
2-4 runners500%−5.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 12 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 12 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 10 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
092318680·0000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
39
Archived wins
£337k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Central Flame (GB) — 888sport AP's Last Ride At Haydock 'Fixed Brush' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Haydock · Apr 2015 · Class 3
£8,123
Central Flame (GB) — Kirkley Hall Ltd Zoological Gardens Handicap Hurdle Hexham · Apr 2015 · Class 3
£7,148
Ripstick (GB) — Eden Handicap Chase Carlisle · Mar 2020 · Class 4
Progeny have won 10.3% of 107 runs since 2008 (5 horses).
Sulamani (IRE)10.7% · 3–28
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,243 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Progeny have won 8.1% of 3,236 runs since 2008 (195 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5% from 339.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 600 · newest first
The latest 50 of 600 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 21 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is James Walton's strike rate?
James Walton has won 8 of 100 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Walton do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 7 wins from 56 runners (12.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is James Walton's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 100 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
James Walton·SR 8%·A/E 0.95
KTB
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