Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90).
Deterministic profile computed from 503 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Mar–AprMiss Catherine Walton: 7.2% from 208
The read
Debutants struggle at 0% (n=36, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.41 and −97.50 to a £1 stake over 115 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Miss Catherine Walton rides 41% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.2%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well on Heavy going (12%, n=83). The stable star of the record: Cudgel (GB) — 6 wins from 52 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−4.2
n=115 · A/E 0.41 · £1 −97.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.8
n=36 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −36.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
20%+13.2
n=5 · A/E 1.82 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=21 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −0.34
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%−1.2
n=266 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −162.09
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners20.6% vs 6.8% · n=34
With debutants0% vs 6.8% · n=36
On Heavy going12% vs 6.8% · n=83
With Conor O'Farrell11.4% vs 6.8% · n=105
With C&D winners11.4% vs 6.8% · n=79
With horses switching code2.5% vs 6.8% · n=80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase283186.4%−162.34
Hurdle192168.3%−67.38
NH Flat2800%−28.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good168127.1%−73.63
Soft12886.3%−60.50
Good to Soft11443.5%−80.50
Heavy831012%−33.09
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Firm100%−1.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hexham183168.7%−71.75
Kelso6234.8%−45.84
Carlisle52611.5%−9.13
Newcastle5135.9%−21.00
Perth4412.3%−41.00
Sedgefield3525.7%−14.50
Catterick2300%−23.00
Cartmel1815.6%−8.00
Musselburgh1815.6%−14.50
Wetherby600%−6.00
Ayr500%−5.00
Stratford100%−1.00
Towcester100%−1.00
Cheltenham100%−1.00
Haydock11100%+7.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4243135.3%−156.01
Class 5180179.4%−51.12
Class 34524.4%−32.50
Class 63126.5%−14.09
Class 2400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite29827.6%1.13−2.84
2nd–3rd fav811619.8%1.22+5.62
4th–6th fav18973.7%0.57−112.50
7th+ in betting20431.5%0.57−148.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m172116.4%−95.38
2m5f – 3m161116.8%−90.34
2m1f – 2m4f14096.4%−70.25
Over 3m30310%−1.75
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20083200%−32.00
20091100%−11.00
2010700%−7.00
20111700%−17.00
201229620.7%−6.00
20133226.3%−19.09
20144512.2%−30.00
201535411.4%+14.50
20163000%−30.00
201716212.5%−1.00
20183825.3%−24.50
201944511.4%−8.00
202029310.3%−13.75
20213812.6%−32.50
202229310.3%−9.00
20232229.1%−11.00
20242000%−20.00
202515213.3%+2.62
20261417.1%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps321278.4%−121.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners194115.7%−99.25
5-7 runners142149.9%−49.59
11-13 runners11376.2%−67.88
14-16 runners3113.2%−21.00
2-4 runners1815.6%−15.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 48 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 48 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 44 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
74131644405085
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
39
Archived wins
£337k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Central Flame (GB) — 888sport AP's Last Ride At Haydock 'Fixed Brush' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Haydock · Apr 2015 · Class 3
£8,123
Central Flame (GB) — Kirkley Hall Ltd Zoological Gardens Handicap Hurdle Hexham · Apr 2015 · Class 3
£7,148
Ripstick (GB) — Eden Handicap Chase Carlisle · Mar 2020 · Class 4
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,246 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Progeny have won 10.3% of 107 runs since 2017 (5 horses).
Rambling Bear (GB)9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 6.6% of 362 runs since 2008 (21 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 600 · newest first
The latest 50 of 600 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 21 June 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is James Walton's strike rate?
James Walton has won 34 of 503 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Walton do best at?
Carlisle by strike rate: 6 wins from 52 runners (11.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Walton?
Miss Catherine Walton, with 208 runners since 2008 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 15 (7.2%).
What is James Walton's Fair A/E?
0.90, from 502 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
James Walton·SR 6.8%·A/E 0.90
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy