Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.66).
Deterministic profile computed from 210 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceNiall Moore: 1.7% from 59
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 1.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.43 and −68.50 to a £1 stake over 110 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Niall Moore rides 28% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (1.7%, A/E 0.34). The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (6.7%, n=75). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Boreen Belle Mares Novice Hurdle at Thurles (Dec 2017, £19,988). The stable star of the record: Like An Open Book (IRE) — 5 wins from 39 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.9
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.9
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.9
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 2.24 · £1 +3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.8%−1.1
n=110 · A/E 0.43 · £1 −68.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With E Walsh9.8% vs 2.9% · n=41
Over 2m1f – 2m4f6.7% vs 2.9% · n=75
On Good going5.5% vs 2.9% · n=73
In Flat races0% vs 2.9% · n=40
With horses switching code0% vs 2.9% · n=30
Off a 31-60-day break5% vs 2.9% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle13443%−103.50
Flat4000%−40.00
NH Flat2613.8%+8.00
Chase10110%−6.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good7345.5%−16.00
Soft5311.9%−45.50
Good to Soft5112%−47.50
Heavy2300%−23.00
Standard (AW)900%−9.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kilbeggan2500%−25.00
Wexford23313%−8.50
Cork1500%−15.00
Thurles1500%−15.00
Limerick1500%−15.00
Punchestown1300%−13.00
Listowel1218.3%+0.00
Clonmel1000%−10.00
Dundalk (AW)900%−9.00
Killarney9111.1%+25.00
Gowran Park700%−7.00
Tramore700%−7.00
Tipperary700%−7.00
Fairyhouse500%−5.00
Naas500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.94+2.00
2nd–3rd fav1800%0.00−18.00
4th–6th fav3925.1%0.75−24.00
7th+ in betting14821.4%0.70−102.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m8211.2%−74.50
2m1f – 2m4f7556.7%−14.50
2m5f – 3m1500%−15.00
1m2f – 1m4f1300%−13.00
1m – 1m1f1200%−12.00
6f – 7f1100%−11.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224912%−41.50
20234912%−41.50
20243925.1%−23.50
20253100%−31.00
20264224.8%−4.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9544.2%−64.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners9922%−61.50
11-13 runners5223.8%−41.00
17+ runners4312.3%−31.00
8-10 runners1317.7%−5.50
5-7 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 33 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 31 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Daragh Bourke (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0000351400000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£330k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Killahara Castle (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Boreen Belle Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed) Thurles · Dec 2017 · Listed
£19,988
Aurora Bell (IRE) — Fred Kenny Lifetime Service To Racing Novice Handicap Chase Fairyhouse · Apr 2015
Progeny have won 9% of 1,251 runs since 2008 (155 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.2% from 183.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 723 · newest first
The latest 50 of 723 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John M Burke's strike rate?
John M Burke has won 6 of 210 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for John M Burke?
Niall Moore, with 59 runners since 2022 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.7%).
Is John M Burke in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John M Burke's Fair A/E?
0.66, from 210 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John M Burke·SR 2.9%·A/E 0.66
KTB
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