Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 17.2%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%−5.0
n=9 · A/E 1.99 · £1 +14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−16.1
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−16.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−16.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
25%
n=12 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −0.87
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
17.2%+1.1
n=58 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +56.13
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up17.2% vs 16.1% · n=58 · A/E 1.49
In Flat races15.9% vs 16.1% · n=63 · A/E 1.53
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat631015.9%+77.50
Hurdle16212.5%+61.00
Chase8225%−1.37
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)26311.5%−1.50
Good21314.3%+59.75
Good to Firm17529.4%+70.50
Good to Soft10220%+15.88
Soft1000%−10.00
Firm200%−2.00
Heavy11100%+4.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)17317.6%+7.50
Bath14214.3%+14.50
Hereford7228.6%+70.00
Salisbury6233.3%+34.00
Fontwell600%−6.00
Kempton (AW)500%−5.00
Lingfield (AW)400%−4.00
Wincanton300%−3.00
Windsor300%−3.00
Brighton300%−3.00
Chepstow3266.7%+34.50
Taunton22100%+4.63
Warwick200%−2.00
Sandown2150%+8.00
Newton Abbot200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 431516.1%+45.63
Class 629620.7%+47.00
Class 520315%+51.50
Class 3500%−5.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite14321.4%0.84−2.87
2nd–3rd fav18316.7%0.99−2.00
4th–6th fav24520.8%3.13+82.00
7th+ in betting3139.7%3.74+60.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f25416%+28.00
1m2f – 1m4f1417.1%+9.00
6f – 7f12433.3%+47.00
Under 6f9111.1%−3.50
1m5f – 2m8112.5%+18.00
Over 3m8112.5%+43.00
2m1f – 2m4f700%−7.00
2m5f – 3m4250%+2.63
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202533515.2%+79.50
202654916.7%+57.63
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps661218.2%+98.13
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners32412.5%+15.50
8-10 runners28310.7%+42.88
5-7 runners20630%+82.25
14-16 runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners3133.3%+0.50
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Bill Turner (9); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
03340013038131419130
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,727 runs since 2019 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 645. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Progeny have won 11% of 3,158 runs since 2021 (337 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.9% from 334. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 321.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 87 · newest first
The latest 50 of 87 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 August 2025 to 4 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026
KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 6 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
What is Kathy Turner's strike rate?
Kathy Turner has won 14 of 87 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Kathy Turner in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kathy Turner's Fair A/E?
1.56, from 87 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Kathy Turner·SR 16.1%·A/E 1.56
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