Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.4
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
50%+44.6
n=2 · A/E 13.20 · £1 +17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.4
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.2
n=18 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat2514%+4.00
Hurdle2414.2%−5.00
Chase4125%+7.00
NH Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy1300%−13.00
Good to Soft1100%−11.00
Good11327.3%+48.00
Standard (AW)1100%−11.00
Soft800%−8.00
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)1100%−11.00
Punchestown500%−5.00
Ballinrobe400%−4.00
Limerick400%−4.00
Gowran Park4125%+25.00
Leopardstown300%−3.00
Navan300%−3.00
Naas300%−3.00
Fairyhouse200%−2.00
Downpatrick200%−2.00
Bellewstown2150%+17.00
Roscommon200%−2.00
Wexford200%−2.00
Kilbeggan200%−2.00
Killarney100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav1100%0.00−11.00
4th–6th fav1317.7%0.95−2.00
7th+ in betting2926.9%2.26+19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f1815.6%+11.00
1m5f – 2m1500%−15.00
2m5f – 3m900%−9.00
2m1f – 2m4f8112.5%+11.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
6f – 7f200%−2.00
Over 3m2150%+9.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221218.3%+17.00
20231200%−12.00
2024900%−9.00
20251200%−12.00
202611218.2%+19.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3738.1%+22.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2926.9%+19.00
11-13 runners1417.1%−3.00
17+ runners1000%−10.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
8-10 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 5 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 5 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 4 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000014·01325000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Oscar Time (IRE) — Paddy Power Chase (0-145) (Grade B Handicap) Leopardstown · Dec 2009 · Grade B
£106,800
Keep It Cool (IRE) — Tipperary Summer Festival 19th & 20th July Hurdle Tipperary · May 2008
£13,020
Oscar Time (IRE) — Free Entrance To The Sin Bin Hurdle Limerick · Apr 2008
Progeny have won 9.4% of 2,980 runs since 2008 (302 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.1% from 191.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 256 · newest first
The latest 50 of 256 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 April 2006 to 9 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is M M Lynch's strike rate?
M M Lynch has won 3 of 56 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is M M Lynch in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is M M Lynch's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 56 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
M M Lynch·SR 5.4%·A/E 0.75
KTB
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