Patrick McGettigan
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 120 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05).
The record is strongest at Leopardstown (13.9%, n=36), clear of the rider's 7.7% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.1% (n=95, Fair A/E 0.25). First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 7.3% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.15 and +3.62 to a £1 stake over 286 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. J P Murtagh supplies 14% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.3% vs 7.7%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (17.5%, n=40) and at trips under 6f (12.7%, n=55). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1.4% over 72 rides, 6.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 0-7-day break: Fair A/E 0.18 across 52 rides (1.9% strike, −46.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2024→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 575 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 575 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 August 2024 to 1 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 4 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 30 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Patrick McGettigan's strike rate?
- Patrick McGettigan has won 44 of 575 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Patrick McGettigan do best at?
- Leopardstown by strike rate: 5 wins from 36 rides (13.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Patrick McGettigan ride most for?
- J P Murtagh, with 80 rides since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (11.3%).
- Is Patrick McGettigan in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Patrick McGettigan's Fair A/E?
- 1.05, from 574 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.