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Trainer profile

M M Lynch

210 runners in the lifetime window · 30 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 29 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
11–210
Wins / Runs
5.2%
Strike rate
n=210
52 (25%)
Placed
0.82
Fair A/E
n=210 · 0.62 incl. margin
−66.75
£1 level stake
n=210 at SP · −31.8%
£556k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.82).

Deterministic profile computed from 210 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5.6%
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −26.00 to a £1 stake over 108 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (11.1%, n=54) and in NH Flat races (10%, n=30). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 30 runners, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.24 across 57 runners (1.8% strike, −28.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown (Dec 2009, £106,800).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.1%−2.1
n=64 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −48.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.2
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+9.1
n=7 · A/E 2.35 · £1 +12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
27.3%
n=11 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −1.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.4
n=108 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −26.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.1%+5.9
n=9 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 11.1% vs 5.2% · n=54
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 5.2% · n=30
In NH Flat races 10% vs 5.2% · n=30
With Mr M J Lynch 10% vs 5.2% · n=30
With horses switching code 8.9% vs 5.2% · n=45
In Flat races 1.8% vs 5.2% · n=57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 99 4 4% −60.75
Flat 57 1 1.8% −28.00
NH Flat 30 3 10% +21.75
Chase 24 3 12.5% +0.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 62 5 8.1% +4.50
Heavy 60 2 3.3% −50.25
Good 40 3 7.5% +19.00
Good to Soft 22 0 0% −22.00
Standard (AW) 16 0 0% −16.00
Good to Firm 9 0 0% −9.00
Firm 1 1 100% +7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse 22 1 4.5% −19.75
Navan 17 2 11.8% −2.00
Thurles 16 1 6.3% −12.75
Dundalk (AW) 15 0 0% −15.00
Naas 14 0 0% −14.00
Leopardstown 14 1 7.1% −3.00
Punchestown 13 0 0% −13.00
Limerick 12 1 8.3% −8.25
Roscommon 10 0 0% −10.00
Ballinrobe 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 9 1 11.1% +20.00
Kilbeggan 7 0 0% −7.00
Tipperary 7 1 14.3% +1.00
Cork 6 1 16.7% +35.00
Downpatrick 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 9 1 11.1% +2.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 3 25% 1.18 −2.75
2nd–3rd fav 31 2 6.5% 0.45 −16.00
4th–6th fav 48 3 6.3% 0.91 −18.00
7th+ in betting 119 3 2.5% 0.95 −30.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
90.2% completed · 123 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 24 83.3% 1 1 2 0 0
Hurdle 99 91.9% 0 1 5 2 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Oscar Time (IRE)then Robert Waley-Cohen 30 4 20 6 Apr 13
Leabaland (IRE)from M Halford 27 1 4 26 Aug 25
Adatara (IRE) 16 0 3 5 Jul 13
Mini Getaway (IRE) 14 1 7 9 Oct 26
Keep It Cool (IRE)from D K Weld · then P F O'Donnell 12 1 4 9 Aug 09
Beyond The Obvious (IRE) 11 2 3 26 Apr 17
Urban Dusk (IRE)then Mark Michael McNiff 9 0 1 18 Feb 15
Inside Shadow (IRE) 9 0 4 26 Dec 11
Ardgillan (IRE)from M Halford & T Collins 7 1 1 28 Sep 26
Eusebius (IRE) 6 0 0 10 Jul 18
Sainte Careigne (FR)from W P Mullins 6 0 0 26 Sep 12
Sister Lord (IRE) 6 0 0 26 Mar 09
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive; 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
66115110069056
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMr M J Lynch
14% of all rides
10% SR · A/E 1.58
RiderRWSR£1
Mr M J Lynch 30 3 10% +26.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
12
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£570k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 3 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Oscar Time (IRE) — Paddy Power Chase (0-145) (Grade B Handicap) Leopardstown · Dec 2009 · Grade B
£106,800
Keep It Cool (IRE) — Tipperary Summer Festival 19th & 20th July Hurdle Tipperary · May 2008
£13,020
Oscar Time (IRE) — Free Entrance To The Sin Bin Hurdle Limerick · Apr 2008
£11,056
Notable horses
Oscar Time (IRE) Beyond The Obvious (IRE) Leabaland (IRE) Mini Getaway (IRE) Keep It Cool (IRE) Market Minstrel (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oscar (IRE) 12.8% · 6–47
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Cappella Sansevero (GB) 3.7% · 1–27
Progeny have won 6.3% of 536 runs since 2019 (46 horses).
Getaway (GER) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,001 runs since 2016 (1,031 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.
Celtic Swing (GB) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,248 runs since 2008 (160 horses).
Spinning World (USA) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 10.3% of 914 runs since 2008 (61 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.3% from 181. Weakest on Good going: 5.4% from 202.
Golan (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,151 runs since 2008 (288 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 258.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 256 · newest first

The latest 50 of 256 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 April 2006 to 9 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good · 14 ran 2nd 100/30F
30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Sligo Races Handicap Steeplechase26f · Good · 12 ran 1st 10/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Ardgillan (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 10th 9/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Racing Again October 25th & 26th Handicap Steeplechase25f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 20/1
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Ardgillan (IRE)J: Joshua Halford Money Back Daily Specials With Tote.ie Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 1st 18/1
10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 12th 14/1
08 Aug 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Ardgillan (IRE)J: Joshua Halford Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 10th 22/1
08 May 26 Downpatrick Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Remembering Caughoo Handicap Chase (0-100)23.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 9/1
04 Mar 26 Naas Mini Getaway (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Lily & Wild Restaurant At The Post First Year Anniversary Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 4th 15/2
02 Mar 26 Leopardstown Genepi George (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Trackman Range At Leopardstown Golf Centre Novice Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Soft To Heavy · 18 ran 5th 6/1
25 Jan 26 Naas Genepi George (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle18.5f · Heavy · 16 ran 6th 20/1
29 Dec 25 Limerick Genepi George (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Limerick Racecourse Vets Maiden Hurdle (In Memory Of Andrew McNamara)19f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 3rd 5/2
06 Dec 25 Navan Ardgillan (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Timeless Sash Windows Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 26 ran 22nd 250/1
06 Dec 25 Navan Genepi George (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Timeless Sash Windows Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 26 ran 5th 200/1
13 Nov 25 Punchestown Ardgillan (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Matchbook Supporting Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 21 ran 13th 150/1
03 Oct 25 Gowran Park Ardgillan (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Gowran Park Racing Club Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 200/1
26 Aug 25 Bellewstown Leabaland (IRE)J: Patrick McGettigan Gibneys Malahide Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)8f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 6th 9/1
09 Aug 25 Kilbeggan Ardgillan (IRE)J: Mr T A Halford Well Of Moate Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 7th 66/1
26 Jul 25 Gowran Park Leabaland (IRE)J: Dylan O'Connor Racing TV Apprentice Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)9.5f · Good · 13 ran 6th 7/1
10 Jul 25 Leopardstown Leabaland (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish Champions Festival Handicap (0-60)9f · Good To Firm · 20 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 9 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is M M Lynch's strike rate?
M M Lynch has won 11 of 210 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is M M Lynch's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 210 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).