Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.3%−8.4
n=12 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −6.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.3%−8.4
n=12 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −6.50
Debutants · first career start
100%+83.3
n=2 · A/E 6.13 · £1 +9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
100%+83.3
n=2 · A/E 6.13 · £1 +9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−16.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
66.7%
n=3 · A/E 1.72 · £1 +1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
19.2%+2.5
n=26 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −5.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1100%−11.00
Soft8337.5%+5.50
Good to Soft7114.3%−5.00
Heavy3133.3%+2.50
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham9111.1%−3.50
Taunton300%−3.00
Exeter3133.3%+2.50
Leicester3133.3%+2.50
Aintree300%−3.00
Ludlow200%−2.00
Stratford11100%+1.50
Warwick100%−1.00
Wetherby100%−1.00
Worcester100%−1.00
Chepstow100%−1.00
Hereford100%−1.00
Kelso11100%+1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 516425%+3.00
Class 4500%−5.00
Class 6400%−4.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 32150%+0.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite3266.7%1.72+1.50
2nd–3rd fav12325%1.31+4.50
4th–6th fav700%0.00−7.00
7th+ in betting800%0.00−8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m17317.6%−3.50
Over 3m6116.7%−4.00
2m1f – 2m4f400%−4.00
1m5f – 2m3133.3%+2.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2009400%−4.00
2010200%−2.00
2011100%−1.00
2013100%−1.00
2016400%−4.00
2019100%−1.00
202022100%+6.00
2021200%−2.00
20246350%+7.00
2025100%−1.00
2026600%−6.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners11327.3%+2.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
5-7 runners400%−4.00
11-13 runners3133.3%−0.50
2-4 runners2150%+3.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A L T Moore (2); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard, most often for Matt Sheppard (2); 6 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
010025018·······
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Yippee Ki Yay (IRE) — Borders Growers & Distillers Corinthian Spirit 'Grassroots' Hunters' Chase Series Final Kelso · May 2024 · Class 3
£5,820
Risk And Roll (FR) — Dick Saunders Novices' Hunters' Chase Leicester · Feb 2020 · Class 5
£3,120
Risk And Roll (FR) — Low6 Sports Betting Reborn Novices' Hunters' Chase Stratford · Mar 2020 · Class 5
Progeny have won 14.4% of 3,170 runs since 2016 (440 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.5% from 955.
Supreme Leader (GB)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 31 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mrs N Sheppard's 31 archived runners, from 27 April 2005 to 24 April 2026, newest first — 5 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mrs N Sheppard's strike rate?
Mrs N Sheppard has won 5 of 30 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mrs N Sheppard's Fair A/E?
1.20, from 30 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mrs N Sheppard·SR 16.7%·A/E 1.20
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