Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.89).
Deterministic profile computed from 102 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well in Hurdle races (18.6%, n=43) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (15.6%, n=45). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 0% over 37 runners, 8.8pts below the baseline. 25 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National Chase at Fairyhouse (Apr 2011, £141,000). The stable star of the record: Mansony (FR) — 10 wins from 45 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%−3.8
n=20 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −1.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
33.3%+24.5
n=3 · A/E 4.23 · £1 +16.00
Debutants · first career start
22.2%+13.4
n=9 · A/E 3.92 · £1 +9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
40%
n=10 · A/E 1.56 · £1 +2.33
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.5%−4.3
n=22 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −17.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races18.6% vs 8.8% · n=43
In Chase races0% vs 8.8% · n=37
Over 2m1f – 2m4f15.6% vs 8.8% · n=45
Off a 15-30-day break2.5% vs 8.8% · n=40
With Donagh Meyler15.2% vs 8.8% · n=33
With Ricky Doyle6.7% vs 8.8% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle43818.6%+12.16
Chase3700%−37.00
NH Flat1317.7%−8.00
Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5359.4%−10.92
Heavy2727.4%−20.42
Good1715.9%−12.00
Good to Soft4125%+2.50
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse17317.6%+6.50
Naas12325%−3.67
Gowran Park8112.5%−3.67
Navan800%−8.00
Down Royal6116.7%−1.00
Punchestown600%−6.00
Cork600%−6.00
Downpatrick500%−5.00
Sligo4125%+15.00
Galway400%−4.00
Leopardstown400%−4.00
Limerick300%−3.00
Kilbeggan300%−3.00
Wexford300%−3.00
Curragh300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1900%−9.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite12433.3%1.39+0.33
2nd–3rd fav25312%0.83−9.17
4th–6th fav3612.8%0.37−23.00
7th+ in betting2913.4%1.09−10.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f45715.6%+6.41
1m5f – 2m2414.2%−21.75
2m5f – 3m1915.3%−12.50
Over 3m600%−6.00
6f – 7f400%−4.00
1m – 1m1f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222229.1%−5.00
202312216.7%−4.79
202414214.3%+8.20
20252727.4%−15.50
20262713.7%−24.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5247.7%−19.30
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2727.4%−7.50
14-16 runners2328.7%+0.00
8-10 runners23417.4%−7.59
17+ runners2214.5%−19.75
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 15 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 15 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
14210141000001700
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
208
Archived wins
25
Pattern / graded wins
£4.77m
Prize money
2006
Best season · 23 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Organisedconfusion (IRE) — Ladbrokes Irish Grand National Chase (Extended Handicap) (Grade A) Fairyhouse · Apr 2011 · Grade A
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,471 runs since 2008 (389 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15% from 227. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 184.
Kalanisi (IRE)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,742 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,771 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,771 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 10 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is A L T Moore's strike rate?
A L T Moore has won 9 of 102 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is A L T Moore in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is A L T Moore's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
A L T Moore·SR 8.8%·A/E 0.89
KTB
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