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Trainer profile

Nicolas Guilbert

107 runners in the lifetime window · 20 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–107
Wins / Runs
6.5%
Strike rate
n=107
21 (20%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=107 · 0.83 incl. margin
+17.40
£1 level stake
n=107 at SP · +16.3%
£150k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 107 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=35, Fair A/E 0.40). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 3.2% over 31 runners, 3.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−3.6
n=35 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.5
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.5
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.5%+0.0
n=31 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −21.10

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Standard (AW) going 3.2% vs 6.5% · n=31
With a new jockey booking 3.7% vs 6.5% · n=54
With Mme Lea Bails 8.9% vs 6.5% · n=45
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 105 7 6.7% +19.40
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 31 1 3.2% +27.00
Soft 29 3 10.3% −1.10
Good to Soft 28 2 7.1% +7.50
Good 9 1 11.1% −6.00
Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR) 29 2 6.9% +37.50
Chantilly 22 2 9.1% −12.10
Saint-Cloud 20 1 5% +7.00
Longchamp (FR) 16 1 6.3% −6.80
Clairefontaine (FR) 7 0 0% −7.00
Lyon Parilly (FR) 3 1 33.3% +8.80
Le Mans (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00
Compiegne (FR) 2 0 0% −2.00
Dieppe (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Nancy (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Auteuil (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Amiens (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00
Le Touquet (FR) 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 3 11 1 9.1% −2.50
Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 1 16.7% 0.63 −3.00
2nd–3rd fav 13 2 15.4% 1.39 +3.10
4th–6th fav 18 1 5.6% 0.66 −9.50
7th+ in betting 70 3 4.3% 1.35 +26.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Sijoux (IRE) 19 2 4 14 Oct 26
Simancas (FR)from C Laffon-Parias 15 1 4 28 Oct 26
Topy'sim (FR) 11 2 5 20 Aug 26
Duke Of Conker (FR) 10 1 3 5 Nov 23
La Venezzia (FR) 8 0 1 16 Aug 25
La Billebaude (FR) 6 0 0 27 Sep 26
Salsa Queen (FR) 6 0 0 27 Oct 22
Standing Stone (IRE)from H-F Devin 5 1 2 24 Apr 26
Navamarin (IRE) 4 0 0 7 Sep 26
Joukovka (FR)from M Boutin · then Caroline Auvray 4 0 0 25 Nov 25
Intriguator (FR) 4 0 2 5 Sep 24
Falcon (FR) 3 0 0 26 Dec 24
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 20 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000140222060009
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMme Lea Bails
42% of all rides
8.9% SR · A/E 1.02
RiderRWSR£1
Mme Lea Bails 45 4 8.9% −17.40
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
7
Archived wins
£150k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 4 wins
Topy'sim (FR) — Prix de l'Hotel Carnavalet - Grand Prix des Femmes Jockeys (Handicap) (Fillies & Mares) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Jun 2026
£22,130
Sijoux (IRE) — The Aga Khan Studs Prix De Glanville Deauville (FR) · Aug 2026 · Class 3
£10,550
Duke Of Conker (FR) — Prix du Cercle de l'Union (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · Jun 2022
£10,504
Notable horses
Sijoux (IRE) Topy'sim (FR) Simancas (FR) Duke Of Conker (FR) Standing Stone (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Decorated Knight (GB) 10.5% · 2–19
Progeny have won 9.8% of 976 runs since 2021 (84 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.2% from 287. Weakest on Soft going: 5.7% from 141.
Seabhac (USA) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 9.6% of 429 runs since 2022 (62 horses).
Recoletos (FR) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 9.4% of 818 runs since 2022 (115 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13% from 200.
Authorized (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,030 runs since 2011 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,044. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.
Bobby's Kitten (USA) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 7.9% of 1,673 runs since 2020 (144 horses).
Caravaggio (USA) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.8% of 1,775 runs since 2021 (201 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.3% from 166.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 107 · newest first

The latest 50 of 107 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 September 2019 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Simancas (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Jean MenandClass 4 · 9.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 13th 8/1
20 Oct 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Hermano (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Px Merci Aux Pro Des Courses Venus A Clairefontaine (Px Des Astrances)14.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 6th 20/1
14 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Sijoux (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Des Boucles De La Seine10f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 8th 8/1
11 Oct 26 Nancy (FR) Hermano (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Du Journal "Paris Turf"Class 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 11/2
10 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Simancas (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix De La ColleraieClass 3 · 9f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 8/1
27 Sep 26 Amiens (FR) La Billebaude (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Du Pdv Pmu L'ocean Equihen-plage (Prix Edouard Acker)Class 4 · 8f · Soft · 14 ran 12th 14/1
24 Sep 26 Compiegne (FR) Sijoux (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix De BlerancourtClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 2/1F
11 Sep 26 Le Mans (FR) La Billebaude (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix De Saint-saturninClass 4 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 10/1
08 Sep 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Azaleah (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Du Munet8f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 18/1
07 Sep 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Navamarin (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Du Pays D'ortheClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 25/1
07 Sep 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Sijoux (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Des LandesClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 4/1
23 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Simancas (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Sumbe Prix De JumiegesClass 2 · 10f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 9th 13/2
20 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Topy'sim (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Du Cheval De Loisir (Prix Du Havre)Class 2 · 7.5f · Standard · 15 ran 11th 10/1
20 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Navamarin (IRE)J: Mme Frida Valle Skar Prix Du Cheval De Spectacle (Prix De Fecamp)Class 3 · 7.5f · Standard · 16 ran 15th 50/1
16 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Sijoux (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails The Aga Khan Studs Prix De GlanvilleClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 1st 15/2
14 Aug 26 Clairefontaine (FR) La Billebaude (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Eqwin (Prix De Brucourt)Class 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 10/1
14 Aug 26 Clairefontaine (FR) La Billebaude (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Eqwin (Prix De Brucourt)Class 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 10/1
09 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Topy'sim (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Grand Handicap De DeauvilleClass 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 7th 20/1
08 Aug 26 Deauville (FR) Sea Diamond (FR)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix Des Marettes7.5f · Soft · 12 ran 9th 33/1
07 Aug 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Navamarin (IRE)J: Mme Lea Bails Prix De L'Art Impressionniste - Prix Des PaturagesClass 3 · 9f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 15th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nicolas Guilbert's strike rate?
Nicolas Guilbert has won 7 of 107 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.5% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Nicolas Guilbert in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nicolas Guilbert's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 107 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).