Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.46).
Deterministic profile computed from 162 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 7.4%
The read
The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 35 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.00 across 55 runners (1.8% strike, −54.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.4%+1.2
n=54 · A/E 0.45 · £1 −35.90
New recruits · first run for the yard
5%−1.2
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
15.4%+9.2
n=13 · A/E 1.98 · £1 +1.70
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.2
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −4.40
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−6.2
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f0% vs 6.2% · n=35
Off a 15-30-day break1.8% vs 6.2% · n=55
On Standard (AW) going3.3% vs 6.2% · n=61
Over 1m2f – 1m4f8.9% vs 6.2% · n=56
Over 1m – 1m1f3.9% vs 6.2% · n=51
On Soft going8.3% vs 6.2% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat158106.3%−104.20
Hurdle300%−3.00
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6123.3%−30.50
Good3937.7%−22.70
Soft3638.3%−31.00
Good to Soft2129.5%−19.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)5535.5%−24.50
Saint-Cloud3026.7%−27.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)2613.8%−12.30
Chantilly (FR)2200%−22.00
Longchamp (FR)20315%−15.40
Auteuil (FR)400%−4.00
Le Croise-Laroche (FR)200%−2.00
Nancy100%−1.00
Strasbourg11100%—
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6116.7%0.67−4.40
2nd–3rd fav1200%0.00−12.00
4th–6th fav3400%0.00−34.00
7th+ in betting10033%0.96−57.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f5658.9%−20.90
1m – 1m1f5123.9%−36.30
6f – 7f3500%−35.00
1m5f – 2m7228.6%−4.00
Under 6f7114.3%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f600%−6.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20097571.4%—
20104237.1%+2.20
20116223.2%−59.40
20124100%−41.00
2013900%−9.00
2026100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps12065%−83.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners6822.9%−38.50
17+ runners6100%−60.00
11-13 runners1600%−16.00
2-4 runners10660%−1.00
8-10 runners7228.6%+7.30
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 33 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from U Suter (3) and D Fechner (2); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
13 have since run for another yard, most often for Nicolas Lefebvre (2); 20 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·05411011622136
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mofa Bere (FR) — Prix du Palais de Glace (Handicap) Longchamp (FR) · Apr 2005
£16,000
Mofa Bere (FR) — Prix du Mandinet (Handicap) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Apr 2005
£16,000
Zafeereli (GB) — Prix Illinois II (Maiden) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Apr 2009
Progeny have won 7.4% of 54 runs since 2009 (5 horses).
King Cugat (USA)27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 29.3% of 41 runs since 2008 (4 horses).
Johannesburg (USA)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 9.8% of 2,562 runs since 2008 (191 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 244. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.8% from 104.
Kyllachy (GB)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 180 · newest first
The latest 50 of 180 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 March 2005 to 18 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P Lacroix's strike rate?
P Lacroix has won 10 of 162 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Lacroix do best at?
Saint-Cloud by strike rate: 2 wins from 30 runners (6.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is P Lacroix's Fair A/E?
0.46, from 151 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P Lacroix·SR 6.2%·A/E 0.46
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