Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5.4%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%+1.0
n=19 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −17.56
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+20.7
n=4 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −2.56
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 1.52 · £1 +0.44
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.4%+1.1
n=37 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −14.56
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races6.3% vs 4.3% · n=32
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 96.3% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase3226.3%−9.56
Hurdle1100%−11.00
NH Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1715.9%+4.00
Soft10110%−8.56
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Good to Soft800%−8.00
Heavy400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newton Abbot1317.7%+8.00
Stratford900%−9.00
Exeter600%−6.00
Cheltenham500%−5.00
Wincanton300%−3.00
Newbury3133.3%−1.56
Taunton200%−2.00
Worcester100%−1.00
Chepstow100%−1.00
Ffos Las100%−1.00
Fontwell100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Aintree100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41700%−17.00
Class 613215.4%+9.44
Class 5800%−8.00
Class 3500%−5.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%1.52+0.44
4th–6th fav1300%0.00−13.00
7th+ in betting3313%1.16−12.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Over 3m2114.8%+0.00
2m5f – 3m1915.3%−17.56
2m1f – 2m4f600%−6.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2009100%−1.00
20108225%+14.44
2011600%−6.00
2012400%−4.00
20131200%−12.00
2014400%−4.00
2015500%−5.00
2016400%−4.00
2021200%−2.00
2023100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2000%−20.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners1317.7%+8.00
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners900%−9.00
14-16 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
2-4 runners3133.3%−1.56
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 7 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 7 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 4 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00100110000000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Joaaci (IRE) — M & C Carpets Hunters' Chase Newbury · Mar 2010 · Class 6
£1,420
Apollo Blaze (IRE) — Teign Suite Restaurant Hunters' Chase Newton Abbot · May 2010 · Class 6
Progeny have won 9.2% of 6,324 runs since 2011 (609 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.1% from 142.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 50 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Patricia Shaw's 50 archived runners, from 9 March 2006 to 5 May 2023, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Patricia Shaw's strike rate?
Patricia Shaw has won 2 of 47 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Patricia Shaw's Fair A/E?
0.87, from 47 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Patricia Shaw·SR 4.3%·A/E 0.87
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