What is Ian Popham's strike rate?

Ian Popham has won 134 of 1,649 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ian Popham do best at?

Towcester by strike rate: 11 wins from 61 rides (18%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ian Popham ride most for?

Martin Keighley, with 306 rides since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 38 (12.4%).

What is Ian Popham's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 1,649 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ian Popham

1,649 rides in the lifetime window · 728 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jan 2018 99% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

134–1,649

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=1,649

424 (26%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=1,649 · 0.78 incl. margin

−703.84

£1 level stake

n=1,649 at SP · −42.7%

£1.40m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 150 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (148 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,649 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 34.7% when favourite Martin Keighley: 12.4% from 306 LTO winners: 13.5% Claiming: 10.1% Group/Graded: 11.9% Rode the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Towcester (18%, n=61), clear of the rider's 8.1% baseline. It is weakest at Warwick (0% over 46 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.5% (n=148, Fair A/E 0.80), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=391, Fair A/E 0.88). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.73 and −228.48 to a £1 stake over 419 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Martin Keighley supplied 19% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.4% vs 8.1%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham (Nov 2015, £91,120). The standout partner of the record was Annacotty (IRE) — 6 wins from 21 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.8%−1.3

n=725 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −376.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.5%+5.4

n=148 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −40.62

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.3%−2.8

n=419 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −228.48

When favourite

34.7%

n=121 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −0.87

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.1%+2.0

n=665 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −251.54

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.1%−3.0

n=391 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −154.24

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

11.9%+3.8

n=59 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +36.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Paul Nicholls 20.2% vs 8.1% · n=84

At Towcester 18% vs 8.1% · n=61

At Warwick 0% vs 8.1% · n=46

On last-time-out winners 13.5% vs 8.1% · n=148

With Richard Phillips 2.6% vs 8.1% · n=116

With C&D winners 13.2% vs 8.1% · n=129

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 998 66 6.6% −504.68

Chase 474 56 11.8% −109.16

NH Flat 168 12 7.1% −81.00

Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 593 43 7.3% −248.90

Good to Soft 398 34 8.5% −192.50

Soft 309 26 8.4% −113.62

Good to Firm 199 15 7.5% −99.80

Heavy 124 14 11.3% −37.02

Standard (AW) 21 1 4.8% −12.00

Firm 5 1 20% +0.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newton Abbot 137 7 5.1% −69.00

Exeter 107 10 9.3% −25.60

Chepstow 105 7 6.7% −81.09

Uttoxeter 96 6 6.3% −48.75

Taunton 95 11 11.6% −28.69

Worcester 84 5 6% −19.00

Fontwell 79 10 12.7% −19.15

Cheltenham 79 6 7.6% −18.12

Stratford 71 4 5.6% −43.62

Wincanton 69 4 5.8% −47.12

Towcester 61 11 18% +11.95

Kempton 55 4 7.3% −0.75

Huntingdon 48 4 8.3% −26.75

Ludlow 47 4 8.5% −21.50

Southwell 47 4 8.5% −21.83

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 745 60 8.1% −438.50

Class 5 394 26 6.6% −162.18

Class 3 221 21 9.5% −48.42

Class 6 130 15 11.5% −39.62

Class 2 82 3 3.7% −53.00

Class 1 77 9 11.7% +37.88

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 141 46 32.6% 1.07 −8.71

2nd–3rd fav 310 44 14.2% 0.91 −85.63

4th–6th fav 473 27 5.7% 0.76 −215.50

7th+ in betting 725 17 2.3% 0.78 −394.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.7% completed · 1,472 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 474 73.8% 23 15 82 3 1

Hurdle 998 86.9% 17 6 103 2 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Deep Pockets (IRE) 22 5 11 28 May 11

Annacotty (IRE) 21 6 9 14 Mar 17

Bally Legend (GB) 21 5 10 4 Oct 14

Monty's Revenge (IRE) 17 3 4 20 Jun 16

The Fox's Decree (GB) 17 2 10 21 Jul 13

Kyles Faith (IRE) 16 2 6 8 Oct 15

Muthabir (IRE) 14 2 4 9 Nov 17

Benbane Head (USA) 14 2 7 15 Mar 14

Seymour Eric (GB) 13 3 6 1 Mar 16

Pyleigh Lass (GB) 13 2 4 25 Apr 14

Sound Stage (GB) 13 2 10 25 Jun 13

Georgian King (GB) 11 1 7 17 Dec 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 728 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

71379718776138

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMartin Keighley

19% of all rides
12.4% SR · A/E 1.03

TrainerRWSR£1

Martin Keighley 306 38 12.4% −46.08

Caroline Keevil 266 21 7.9% −74.32

Richard Phillips 116 3 2.6% −101.88

Dan Skelton 97 12 12.4% −23.68

Paul Nicholls 84 17 20.2% −11.08

Oliver Greenall 58 3 5.2% −35.83

Claire Dyson 45 4 8.9% −16.00

Ron Hodges 43 2 4.7% −29.00

Jeremy Scott 40 3 7.5% −30.74

Carroll Gray 34 1 2.9% −29.67

John Flint 31 2 6.5% −11.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

135

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.41m

Prize money

2013

Best season · 35 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Annacotty (IRE) — Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Cheltenham · Nov 2015 · Grade 3

£91,120

Poquelin (FR) — Vote A.P. Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Cheltenham · Dec 2010 · Class 1

£85,515

Bally Legend (GB) — BetBright Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Kempton · Feb 2014 · Grade 3

£56,950

Notable horses

Annacotty (IRE) Deep Pockets (IRE) Bally Legend (GB) Monty's Revenge (IRE) Seymour Eric (GB) Creepy (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Midnight Legend (GB) 12.8% · 10–78

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,310 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 10.3% · 6–58

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,744 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Beneficial (GB) 19% · 8–42

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 9.5% · 4–42

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,282 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Milan (GB) 7.1% · 3–42

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Court Cave (IRE) 10.8% · 4–37

Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,942 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,668 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,668 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 17 October 2006 to 16 January 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Jan 18 Hereford Asking Questions (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall myracing.com For Free Bets And Tips Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 6/1

13 Jan 18 Wetherby First Up (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall Bet At Racinguk.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 9/1

13 Jan 18 Wetherby Midnight Merlot (GB)T: Noel Williams Racing UK In Stunning HD 'Confined' Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 50/1

13 Jan 18 Wetherby Leskinfere (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall Racing Uk Jump To It Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 20/1

12 Jan 18 Huntingdon Classula (GB)T: Claire Dyson Smarkets Ebf 'national Hunt' Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 15 ran 12th 125/1

11 Jan 18 Leicester Christo (GB)T: Oliver Greenall Roa/racing Post Owners' Jackpot Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 12 ran PU 33/1

10 Jan 18 Ludlow Zalvados (FR)T: Oliver Greenall Racing UK Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 13 ran 1st 4/6F

09 Jan 18 Taunton Blairs Cove (GB)T: Dan Skelton Greenslade Taylor Hunt Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 19f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 14/1

06 Jan 18 Chepstow Court Duty (IRE)T: John Flint Coral Best Price Guaranteed Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 8th 50/1

04 Jan 18 Bangor-on-Dee Alderson (GB)T: Oliver Greenall Budweiser Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Heavy · 4 ran 3rd 25/1

04 Jan 18 Bangor-on-Dee Western Morning (IRE)T: Oliver Greenall Stella Artois Cidre 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 9th 50/1

03 Jan 18 Ludlow Lord County (FR)T: Oliver Greenall Best Wishes For 2018 Juvenile HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 16/1

01 Jan 18 Fakenham Fresh New Dawn (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Fakenham Racecourse Annual Members Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 7 ran 2nd 13/8F

01 Jan 18 Fakenham Crookstown (IRE)T: Ben Case North Norfolk Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 20f · Heavy · 6 ran PU 12/1

31 Dec 17 Warwick Lincoln County (GB)T: Oliver Greenall Local Parking Security Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19f · Heavy · 9 ran PU 9/1

31 Dec 17 Warwick Wood Pigeon (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Lps Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 7 ran UR 6/1

30 Dec 17 Taunton Drumlee City (IRE)T: Nick Mitchell Totescoop6 Play Today Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Soft · 14 ran 8th 20/1

26 Dec 17 Fontwell Undefined Beauty (IRE)T: Olly Murphy Southern Contract Lifting Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 8/1

26 Dec 17 Fontwell Its'afreebee (IRE)T: Dan Skelton Winner Plant And Access Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 10/1

26 Dec 17 Fontwell Navajo War Dance (GB)T: Ali Stronge James Todd Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 17.5f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Ian Popham's strike rate?: Ian Popham has won 134 of 1,649 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ian Popham do best at?: Towcester by strike rate: 11 wins from 61 rides (18%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ian Popham ride most for?: Martin Keighley, with 306 rides since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 38 (12.4%).
What is Ian Popham's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 1,649 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.