What is Micheal Nolan's strike rate?

Micheal Nolan has won 107 of 915 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Micheal Nolan do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 13 wins from 71 rides (18.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Micheal Nolan ride most for?

Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, with 334 rides since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (16.5%).

What is Micheal Nolan's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 913 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Micheal Nolan

915 rides in the last 5 seasons · 252 individual horses

As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2025 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

107–915

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=915

274 (30%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=913 · 0.88 incl. margin

−350.80

£1 level stake

n=915 at SP · −38.3%

£1.41m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 180 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (112 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 915 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 11 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Mar 42% when favourite Philip Hobbs & Johnson White: 16.5% from 334 LTO winners: 23.2% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

It is weakest at Worcester (3.2% over 31 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.2% (n=112, Fair A/E 1.08), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=120, Fair A/E 1.11). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 8.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −122.88 to a £1 stake over 196 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Philip Hobbs & Johnson White supplies 37% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16.5% vs 11.7%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (18.1%, n=166). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 3% over 33 rides, 8.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.71 across 94 rides (5.3% strike, −64.45 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the William Hill Betting Done Properly Handicap Chase at Aintree (Dec 2024, £18,484). The standout partner of the record: Tommie Beau (IRE) — 9 wins from 31 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.8%−2.9

n=216 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −72.65

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

23.2%+11.5

n=112 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −33.42

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.2%−3.5

n=196 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −122.88

When favourite

42%

n=88 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +10.81

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.7%−5.0

n=120 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −44.59

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.7%−5.0

n=15 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −12.12

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 23.2% vs 11.7% · n=112

In Class 3 18.1% vs 11.7% · n=166

With horses switching code 5.5% vs 11.7% · n=145

In Class 1 3% vs 11.7% · n=33

At Worcester 3.2% vs 11.7% · n=31

Off a break of 180+ days 5.3% vs 11.7% · n=94

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 524 58 11.1% −227.34

Chase 328 42 12.8% −125.28

NH Flat 60 6 10% −21.18

Flat 3 1 33.3% +23.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 365 41 11.2% −115.69

Good to Soft 242 24 9.9% −131.67

Soft 209 26 12.4% −74.76

Heavy 85 13 15.3% −27.75

Good to Firm 14 3 21.4% −0.93

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Exeter 114 14 12.3% −32.41

Wincanton 79 11 13.9% −19.58

Taunton 73 12 16.4% −33.12

Newton Abbot 71 13 18.3% −20.64

Chepstow 61 6 9.8% −33.55

Fontwell 59 7 11.9% −13.50

Plumpton 53 7 13.2% −19.97

Newbury 40 5 12.5% −19.12

Worcester 31 1 3.2% −8.00

Ffos Las 26 3 11.5% −14.65

Stratford 25 1 4% −22.75

Cheltenham 24 0 0% −24.00

Hereford 24 4 16.7% −1.00

Huntingdon 23 1 4.3% −17.00

Uttoxeter 19 1 5.3% −17.27

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 389 47 12.1% −120.36

Class 5 274 25 9.1% −112.00

Class 3 166 30 18.1% −48.92

Class 2 53 4 7.5% −39.40

Class 1 33 1 3% −30.12

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 102 43 42.2% 1.29 +16.82

2nd–3rd fav 217 41 18.9% 1.04 −28.62

4th–6th fav 292 21 7.2% 0.91 −84.00

7th+ in betting 304 2 0.7% 0.23 −255.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.9% completed · 852 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 328 83.8% 6 4 42 0 1

Hurdle 524 88.7% 8 7 41 1 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tommie Beau (IRE) 30 8 14 29 Jun 25

Romanor (GB) 23 3 6 13 Jul 25

I See You Well (FR) 16 2 4 20 Jan 25

Sassified (IRE) 15 4 7 20 Jul 25

Lazy Sunday (GB) 14 4 9 22 Mar 25

Kentford Mallard (GB) 14 2 5 6 Nov 24

Miss Fedora (IRE) 14 1 4 21 Jul 24

Getupearly (GB) 13 0 4 7 May 25

Sheldon (IRE) 13 3 3 6 Mar 25

Gingerbred (GB) 13 1 5 29 Oct 24

En Coeur (FR) 13 2 5 23 Oct 23

Imperial Saint (FR) 12 5 9 5 Apr 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 252 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1413146920517208814

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPhilip Hobbs & Johnson White

37% of all rides
16.5% SR · A/E 1.02

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 334 55 16.5% −96.18

Seamus Mullins 307 31 10.1% −134.39

Philip Hobbs 74 4 5.4% −50.00

Richard Mitford-Slade 46 4 8.7% −25.65

Syd Hosie 36 4 11.1% −12.13

Carroll Gray 33 2 6.1% −24.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→

258

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.63m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 37 wins

Imperial Saint (FR) — William Hill Betting Done Properly Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Aintree · Dec 2024 · Class 2

£18,484

Lowry's Bar (IRE) — Coral 'We're Here For It' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Chepstow · Dec 2024 · Class 2

£18,211

Beau Du Brizais (FR) — Tanners Champagne Handicap Chase Ludlow · Dec 2018 · Class 3

£15,335

Notable horses

Tommie Beau (IRE) Imperial Saint (FR) Pointed And Sharp (IRE) Samuel Jackson (GB) Sassified (IRE) Thomas Wild (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 6.6% · 4–61

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,024 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Mahler (GB) 11.1% · 4–36

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,892 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Brian Boru (GB) 26.7% · 8–30

Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 11.1% · 3–27

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,767 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Malinas (GER) 23.1% · 6–26

Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,961 runs since 2010 (419 horses).

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,888 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,568 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,568 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 March 2008 to 15 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

15 Oct 25 Worcester Can You Hear Me (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White CopyBet and Worcester Racecourse 2026 Partnership/EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good · 15 ran F 28/1

15 Oct 25 Worcester Western Cross (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 10/3

11 Oct 25 Chepstow French Ship (GB)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 19.5f · Good · 14 ran UR 7/2

10 Oct 25 Chepstow Murphy's Milan (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White David Pipe Racing Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 16 ran 7th 15/2

10 Oct 25 Chepstow Kilwaughter (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 12/1

10 Oct 25 Chepstow Doctors Hill (GB)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 9/4

10 Oct 25 Chepstow Call Me Legend (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Wasdell Group Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 4th 28/1

21 Aug 25 Newton Abbot Canastero (IRE)T: Carroll Gray Royal Air Force Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26.5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 66/1

20 Jul 25 Newton Abbot Sassified (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Jack Challis Turns 12 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 11/8F

14 Jul 25 Newton Abbot Sassified (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Par Inn Sponsors St. Blazey CC Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/2

13 Jul 25 Stratford Romanor (GB)T: Seamus Mullins University Hospitals Birmingham Charity Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 5/1

04 Jul 25 Newton Abbot Miss Popalong (GB)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White South West Rail Solutions Ltd Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 3/1F

29 Jun 25 Cartmel Tommie Beau (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Oakmere Homes Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 7th 11/2

24 Jun 25 Newton Abbot Romanor (GB)T: Seamus Mullins St. Austell Brewery Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 4th 4/1

17 Jun 25 Stratford Masonbrook Meadow (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins 20th July Is Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 18/1

13 Jun 25 Newton Abbot Sassified (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White WCT Tooling Solutions Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 1st 15/8J

07 Jun 25 Worcester Three Figs (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White BePartofIt Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/2

04 Jun 25 Newton Abbot Balboa (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Clearance Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 5th 16/1

31 May 25 Stratford Romanor (GB)T: Seamus Mullins Supporting Dogs For Good Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 6/1

31 May 25 Stratford Masonbrook Meadow (IRE)T: Seamus Mullins Shirley Guest 80th Birthday Celebration Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Micheal Nolan's strike rate?: Micheal Nolan has won 107 of 915 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Micheal Nolan do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 13 wins from 71 rides (18.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Micheal Nolan ride most for?: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, with 334 rides since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (16.5%).
What is Micheal Nolan's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 913 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.