Micheal Nolan
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 180 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 23% (112 rides).
It is weakest at Worcester (3.2% over 31 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 23.2% (n=112, Fair A/E 1.08), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.7% (n=120, Fair A/E 1.11). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 8.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −122.88 to a £1 stake over 196 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Philip Hobbs & Johnson White supplies 37% of the rides and edges the rider's average (16.5% vs 11.7%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well in Class 3 (18.1%, n=166). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 3% over 33 rides, 8.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.71 across 94 rides (5.3% strike, −64.45 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the William Hill Betting Done Properly Handicap Chase at Aintree (Dec 2024, £18,484). The standout partner of the record: Tommie Beau (IRE) — 9 wins from 31 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Mar.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2008→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 2,568 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 2,568 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 30 March 2008 to 15 October 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Micheal Nolan's strike rate?
- Micheal Nolan has won 107 of 915 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Micheal Nolan do best at?
- Newton Abbot by strike rate: 13 wins from 71 rides (18.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Micheal Nolan ride most for?
- Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, with 334 rides since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 55 (16.5%).
- What is Micheal Nolan's Fair A/E?
- 1.02, from 913 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.