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Trainer profile

Paul Henderson

142 runners in the last 5 seasons · 26 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2023 99% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
6–142
Wins / Runs
4.2%
Strike rate
n=142
35 (25%)
Placed
0.53
Fair A/E
n=142 · 0.46 incl. margin
−66.00
£1 level stake
n=142 at SP · −46.5%
£120k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.53).

Deterministic profile computed from 142 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
The read

The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (7.8%, n=51). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 0% over 40 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.74 across 60 runners (6.7% strike, −3.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Doitforthevillage (IRE) — 8 wins from 48 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.2
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.2
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.2
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
14.3%+10.1
n=7 · A/E 2.27 · £1 +3.00
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −4.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.2
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Nick Scholfield 10% vs 4.2% · n=30
On Soft going 0% vs 4.2% · n=40
With Tom O'Brien 0% vs 4.2% · n=34
With horses switching code 0% vs 4.2% · n=33
On Good to Soft going 7.8% vs 4.2% · n=51
Off a 15-30-day break 6.7% vs 4.2% · n=60
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 84 4 4.8% −15.75
Chase 53 2 3.8% −45.25
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft 51 4 7.8% +18.25
Good 47 2 4.3% −40.25
Soft 40 0 0% −40.00
Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Plumpton 25 3 12% +23.75
Fontwell 22 2 9.1% −4.75
Warwick 11 0 0% −11.00
Newton Abbot 9 0 0% −9.00
Lingfield 8 1 12.5% +2.00
Hereford 7 0 0% −7.00
Fakenham 7 0 0% −7.00
Ascot 6 0 0% −6.00
Chepstow 6 0 0% −6.00
Exeter 5 0 0% −5.00
Uttoxeter 4 0 0% −4.00
Wincanton 4 0 0% −4.00
Ffos Las 3 0 0% −3.00
Newbury 3 0 0% −3.00
Leicester 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 65 2 3.1% −51.75
Class 4 62 3 4.8% −14.25
Class 3 12 1 8.3% +3.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 2 16.7% 0.61 −6.50
2nd–3rd fav 15 1 6.7% 0.37 −10.50
4th–6th fav 46 2 4.3% 0.62 −21.00
7th+ in betting 69 1 1.4% 0.49 −28.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
75.9% completed · 137 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 53 69.8% 2 0 14 0 0
Hurdle 84 79.8% 2 1 14 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
San Pedro (IRE)from J Halley · then Chris Gordon 15 2 5 18 May 23
Small Bad Bob (IRE)from Paul Nolan · then Chris Gordon 15 2 6 18 May 23
Shaw's Cross (IRE)from E J O'Grady · then Andy Irvine 13 1 7 8 Apr 23
Allardyce (GB)from E J O'Grady 12 0 2 27 May 23
Kylenoe Dancer (GB)then Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 10 0 1 7 Jun 23
Megalodon (IRE) 9 0 0 29 May 23
Entre Deux (FR) 8 0 1 17 May 23
Kay's Light (IRE) 8 0 1 21 Apr 23
Good Man Vinnie (IRE)from Denis Leahy 7 0 3 24 Jul 22
Tzunami (GB) 6 0 3 28 May 23
Our Champ (IRE)from J Halley · then Chris Gordon 6 0 3 25 Mar 23
Storm Hill (IRE)from Maike Magnussen 5 1 2 20 Dec 22
All 26 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 26 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from E J O'Grady (3) and J Halley (2); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Chris Gordon (5) and Andy Irvine (3); 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
412001400·0000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom O'Brien
24% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Tom O'Brien 34 0 0% −34.00
Nick Scholfield 30 3 10% −12.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
141
Archived wins
£1.37m
Prize money
2017
Best season · 18 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Un Beau Roman (FR) — Betvictor Handicap Chase Cheltenham · Nov 2016 · Class 2
£28,152
Doitforthevillage (IRE) — Betvictor Handicap Chase Cheltenham · Nov 2017 · Class 2
£28,152
Doitforthevillage (IRE) — Download The Coral App Handicap Chase Chepstow · Dec 2018 · Class 2
£21,896
Notable horses
Doitforthevillage (IRE) Mount Vesuvius (IRE) Life Of A Luso (IRE) Medburn Cutler (GB) Medburn Dream (GB) Crossley Tender (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Big Bad Bob (IRE) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,568 runs since 2008 (314 horses).
Black Sam Bellamy (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,681 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.
Gleneagles (IRE) 13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,536 runs since 2008 (444 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 278.
Mr Dinos (IRE) 7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 7.3% of 409 runs since 2008 (33 horses).
Norse Dancer (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.3% of 1,799 runs since 2008 (157 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.4% from 277. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 207.
Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,898 runs since 2008 (1,025 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,832 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2006 to 7 June 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
07 Jun 23 Newton Abbot Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Racing Partnership Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 18/1
31 May 23 Newton Abbot Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings William Hill Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 40/1
29 May 23 Huntingdon Megalodon (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Join Racing Tv Now Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 66/1
28 May 23 Uttoxeter Tzunami (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Alan Mayne 80th Birthday Celebration Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 10/1
27 May 23 Cartmel Allardyce (GB)J: Aaron Anderson Black & Amber Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 16/1
18 May 23 Fontwell San Pedro (IRE)J: Harry Cobden At The Races App Market Movers Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good · 6 ran 1st 5/4F
18 May 23 Fontwell Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Play With The Finest Bookmaker, Fitzdares..... Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 13/8F
17 May 23 Newton Abbot Entre Deux (FR)J: Nick Scholfield St Austell Brewery Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 9 ran 4th 8/1
14 May 23 Plumpton Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Olivia Mellett Belated 21st Birthday Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 7/2
10 May 23 Fontwell Doyen Queen (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Best Prices Guaranteed Daily At Vickers.Bet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 12 ran PU 16/1
10 May 23 Fontwell Allardyce (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Download The Vickers.Bet App Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good To Soft · 8 ran F 28/1
10 May 23 Fontwell Tzunami (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Vickers.Bet Weekly Free Bet Club Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 22/1
01 May 23 Warwick Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Watch Irish Racing On RacingTV Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2
01 May 23 Warwick Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Nick Scholfield eventmasters.co.uk Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 50/1
27 Apr 23 Warwick Entre Deux (FR)J: Ciaran Gethings Watch On Racing TV Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 4th 16/1
27 Apr 23 Warwick Doyen Queen (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Coop And Alis 40th Birthday Celebration Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 4th 18/1
23 Apr 23 Plumpton San Pedro (IRE)J: Luke Scott Winston's Wish Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 9/2
21 Apr 23 Exeter Megalodon (IRE)J: Luke Scott Globe Inn Chudleigh Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 22/1
21 Apr 23 Exeter Kay's Light (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Henrys Bar Mount Pleasant Exeter Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good · 18 ran 17th 18/1
21 Apr 23 Fontwell Tzunami (GB)J: James Best JEB Homes Building Your Future Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Henderson's strike rate?
Paul Henderson has won 6 of 142 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Henderson's Fair A/E?
0.53, from 142 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).