Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.73).
Deterministic profile computed from 158 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceSarah-Jayne Davies: 1.9% from 54
The read
Sarah-Jayne Davies supplies 34% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (1.9% vs 5.1%, A/E 0.55). The rider also reads well off a 31-60-day break (8.5%, n=47) and over 2m5f – 3m (8.6%, n=35). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 1.9% over 52 rides, 3.2pts below the baseline. 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the European Breeders' Fund Matchbook VIP 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final at Sandown (Mar 2018, £42,203). The standout partner of the record: Time For Rupert (IRE) — 7 wins from 16 rides together.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.7%−0.4
n=64 · A/E 0.86 · £1 +43.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
25%+19.9
n=8 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +17.62
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
2.7%−2.4
n=37 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −14.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −0.38
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−5.1
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break8.5% vs 5.1% · n=47
With Sarah-Jayne Davies1.9% vs 5.1% · n=54
Over 1m5f – 2m1.9% vs 5.1% · n=52
Over 2m5f – 3m8.6% vs 5.1% · n=35
In Chase races7.9% vs 5.1% · n=63
Off a 15-30-day break2.1% vs 5.1% · n=47
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle7822.6%+7.50
Chase6357.9%−5.63
NH Flat1616.3%−13.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5823.4%+26.00
Good to Soft4612.2%−43.38
Soft4224.8%−12.00
Heavy12325%+17.25
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hereford1500%−15.00
Southwell1400%−14.00
Ffos Las1100%−11.00
Chepstow10110%−7.00
Warwick1000%−10.00
Leicester800%−8.00
Uttoxeter800%−8.00
Ludlow700%−7.00
Bangor-on-Dee6116.7%+15.00
Market Rasen6116.7%−3.38
Taunton5120%+2.00
Wincanton500%−5.00
Fontwell500%−5.00
Newton Abbot5120%+76.00
Fakenham400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57034.3%−41.50
Class 46746%+27.37
Class 31616.3%+7.00
Class 2300%−3.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6233.3%0.91−0.38
2nd–3rd fav19210.5%0.59−10.75
4th–6th fav5535.5%0.82−4.00
7th+ in betting7811.3%0.60+3.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f5347.5%+76.50
1m5f – 2m5211.9%−49.00
2m5f – 3m3538.6%−21.63
Over 3m1700%−17.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202210176.9%+40.37
20235711.8%−52.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps11254.5%−54.63
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6211.6%−55.00
5-7 runners40615%+17.87
11-13 runners2813.6%+53.00
14-16 runners1800%−18.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 89 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
6431000000009
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
445
Archived wins
7
Pattern / graded wins
£3.84m
Prize money
2017
Best season · 67 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sam's Gunner (GB) — European Breeders' Fund Matchbook VIP 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Sandown · Mar 2018 · Grade 3
£42,203
Ebony Express (GB) — William Hill Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Sandown · Mar 2015 · Grade 3
£39,865
Time For Rupert (IRE) — Totepool Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Aintree · Apr 2009 · Listed
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,878 runs since 2014 (788 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Black Sam Bellamy (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,687 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 4,905 · newest first
The latest 50 of 4,905 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 September 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is William Kennedy's strike rate?
William Kennedy has won 8 of 158 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does William Kennedy ride most for?
Sarah-Jayne Davies, with 54 rides since 2022 — 34% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.9%).
What is William Kennedy's Fair A/E?
0.73, from 158 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
William Kennedy·SR 5.1%·A/E 0.73
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