What is Paul Henderson's strike rate?

Paul Henderson has won 140 of 1,803 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Henderson do best at?

Ffos Las by strike rate: 7 wins from 41 runners (17.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Henderson?

Tom O'Brien, with 531 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 51 (9.6%).

What is Paul Henderson's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 1,801 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Henderson

1,803 runners in the lifetime window · 173 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jun 2023 94% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

140–1,803

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=1,803

413 (23%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=1,801 · 0.81 incl. margin

−680.88

£1 level stake

n=1,803 at SP · −37.8%

£1.36m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,803 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 34.3% when favourite Tom O'Brien: 9.6% from 531 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Plumpton (16.4%, n=171) and Ffos Las (17.1%, n=41) — all clear of the yard's 7.8% baseline. It is weakest at Newbury (0% over 64 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 1.8% (n=57, Fair A/E 0.53). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.60 and −221.50 to a £1 stake over 349 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tom O'Brien rides 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.3% over 149 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Doitforthevillage (IRE) — 8 wins from 48 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.4%−4.4

n=349 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −221.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.3%−2.5

n=113 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −57.50

Debutants · first career start

1.8%−6.0

n=57 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −50.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.1%−2.7

n=39 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −12.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.9%−1.9

n=51 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −8.50

When favourite

34.3%

n=99 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +10.34

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.5%−3.3

n=314 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −181.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.8

n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 17.6% vs 7.8% · n=136

At Plumpton 16.4% vs 7.8% · n=171

At Ffos Las 17.1% vs 7.8% · n=41

Off a break of 180+ days 1.3% vs 7.8% · n=149

At Newbury 0% vs 7.8% · n=64

With Paddy Brennan 13.3% vs 7.8% · n=188

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 860 45 5.2% −465.47

Chase 759 80 10.5% −136.82

Flat 101 10 9.9% −51.84

NH Flat 83 5 6% −26.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 521 37 7.1% −212.15

Good to Soft 452 33 7.3% −162.40

Soft 439 38 8.7% −106.55

Heavy 202 14 6.9% −119.75

Good to Firm 158 18 11.4% −49.03

Standard (AW) 29 0 0% −29.00

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Fontwell 235 16 6.8% −101.50

Wincanton 210 7 3.3% −117.00

Newton Abbot 186 19 10.2% −57.80

Plumpton 171 28 16.4% +71.01

Warwick 68 6 8.8% −33.00

Kempton 66 3 4.5% −24.00

Newbury 64 0 0% −64.00

Stratford 63 4 6.3% −37.50

Chepstow 61 8 13.1% −15.72

Fakenham 60 6 10% −21.00

Exeter 51 4 7.8% −22.50

Lingfield 50 6 12% −14.62

Cheltenham 42 3 7.1% +8.50

Ffos Las 41 7 17.1% −5.25

Worcester 38 1 2.6% −34.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 781 50 6.4% −402.94

Class 5 550 43 7.8% −238.35

Class 3 283 30 10.6% −8.50

Class 2 82 8 9.8% +6.75

Class 6 73 9 12.3% −3.84

Class 1 34 0 0% −34.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 121 37 30.6% 1.15 −0.16

2nd–3rd fav 282 48 17% 1.03 −36.22

4th–6th fav 617 38 6.2% 0.80 −189.50

7th+ in betting 783 17 2.2% 0.71 −455.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 555 32 5.8% −305.75

2m1f – 2m4f 550 51 9.3% −141.95

1m5f – 2m 403 25 6.2% −125.97

Over 3m 230 26 11.3% −79.84

1m2f – 1m4f 26 1 3.8% −22.00

1m – 1m1f 21 4 19% +10.25

6f – 7f 17 1 5.9% −14.62

Under 6f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 29 3 10.3% −8.00

2009 48 2 4.2% +12.00

2010 66 4 6.1% −24.75

2011 83 9 10.8% −21.50

2012 129 14 10.9% +3.88

2013 164 16 9.8% −25.25

2014 174 15 8.6% −70.75

2015 178 6 3.4% −149.59

2016 140 16 11.4% −4.53

2017 158 18 11.4% −72.21

2018 136 11 8.1% −63.75

2019 113 5 4.4% −61.75

2020 83 5 6% −37.25

2021 160 10 6.3% −91.43

2022 85 2 2.4% −29.00

2023 57 4 7% −37.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,449 131 9% −439.33

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 628 53 8.4% −193.12

11-13 runners 440 19 4.3% −188.00

5-7 runners 425 54 12.7% −71.34

14-16 runners 200 3 1.5% −160.00

17+ runners 71 0 0% −71.00

2-4 runners 39 11 28.2% +2.58

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

78.7% completed · 1,619 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 759 73.9% 31 15 151 1 0

Hurdle 860 82.9% 19 10 117 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mount Vesuvius (IRE)from A J Kennedy 68 5 21 17 Oct 19

Doitforthevillage (IRE) 48 8 16 8 Dec 21

Un Beau Roman (FR)from W P Mullins 41 3 9 26 May 21

Life Of A Luso (IRE)from Eoghan O'Grady 36 5 13 31 Aug 15

Rior (IRE)from Ms Debbie Hartnett 34 2 9 25 Jul 16

Lidjo De Rouge (FR)then Richard Hawker 33 2 6 9 Mar 11

Turban (FR)from W P Mullins 31 3 5 12 Jun 19

Medburn Cutler (GB)from George Baker · then Peter Hedger 31 5 17 15 Oct 17

Shaw's Cross (IRE)from E J O'Grady · then Andy Irvine 30 3 13 8 Apr 23

Megalodon (IRE) 29 1 4 29 May 23

Oncle Kid (FR) 29 2 8 27 Apr 12

Talk Of The South (IRE)then G Chambers 27 3 13 8 May 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 173 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 11 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A J Kennedy (2) and E J O'Grady (2); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Chris Gordon (5) and Peter Hedger (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

768913154711577

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom O'Brien

29% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.05

RiderRWSR£1

Tom O'Brien 531 51 9.6% −147.42

Nick Scholfield 275 23 8.4% −98.55

Paddy Brennan 188 25 13.3% −13.67

Richard Johnson 87 7 8% −22.25

James Best 71 4 5.6% −40.62

Jamie Moore 44 3 6.8% −25.40

Mr Bradley Paris-Crofts 37 0 0% −37.00

Mr Gordon Treacy 32 1 3.1% −28.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

141

Archived wins

£1.37m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 18 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Un Beau Roman (FR) — Betvictor Handicap Chase Cheltenham · Nov 2016 · Class 2

£28,152

Doitforthevillage (IRE) — Betvictor Handicap Chase Cheltenham · Nov 2017 · Class 2

£28,152

Doitforthevillage (IRE) — Download The Coral App Handicap Chase Chepstow · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£21,896

Notable horses

Doitforthevillage (IRE) Mount Vesuvius (IRE) Life Of A Luso (IRE) Medburn Cutler (GB) Medburn Dream (GB) Crossley Tender (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

King's Theatre (IRE) 9% · 7–78

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Spartacus (IRE) 7.4% · 5–68

Progeny have won 6.5% of 1,325 runs since 2008 (113 horses).

Luso (GB) 10.9% · 7–64

Progeny have won 6.7% of 3,516 runs since 2008 (389 horses).

Turtle Island (IRE) 15% · 9–60

Progeny have won 7.5% of 3,325 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.7% from 215.

Beneficial (GB) 11.9% · 7–59

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 16.7% · 8–48

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,832 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2006 to 7 June 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Jun 23 Newton Abbot Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Racing Partnership Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 18/1

31 May 23 Newton Abbot Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings William Hill Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 40/1

29 May 23 Huntingdon Megalodon (IRE)J: Sean Houlihan Join Racing Tv Now Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 8th 66/1

28 May 23 Uttoxeter Tzunami (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Alan Mayne 80th Birthday Celebration Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 10/1

27 May 23 Cartmel Allardyce (GB)J: Aaron Anderson Black & Amber Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 16/1

18 May 23 Fontwell San Pedro (IRE)J: Harry Cobden At The Races App Market Movers Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good · 6 ran 1st 5/4F

18 May 23 Fontwell Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Play With The Finest Bookmaker, Fitzdares..... Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 13/8F

17 May 23 Newton Abbot Entre Deux (FR)J: Nick Scholfield St Austell Brewery Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good · 9 ran 4th 8/1

14 May 23 Plumpton Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Olivia Mellett Belated 21st Birthday Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 6 ran 1st 7/2

10 May 23 Fontwell Doyen Queen (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Best Prices Guaranteed Daily At Vickers.Bet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 12 ran PU 16/1

10 May 23 Fontwell Allardyce (GB)J: Sean Houlihan Download The Vickers.Bet App Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 26f · Good To Soft · 8 ran F 28/1

10 May 23 Fontwell Tzunami (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Vickers.Bet Weekly Free Bet Club Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 22/1

01 May 23 Warwick Small Bad Bob (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Watch Irish Racing On RacingTV Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

01 May 23 Warwick Kylenoe Dancer (GB)J: Nick Scholfield eventmasters.co.uk Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 50/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Entre Deux (FR)J: Ciaran Gethings Watch On Racing TV Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran 4th 16/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Doyen Queen (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Coop And Alis 40th Birthday Celebration Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 4th 18/1

23 Apr 23 Plumpton San Pedro (IRE)J: Luke Scott Winston's Wish Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 9/2

21 Apr 23 Exeter Megalodon (IRE)J: Luke Scott Globe Inn Chudleigh Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17.5f · Good · 10 ran PU 22/1

21 Apr 23 Exeter Kay's Light (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Henrys Bar Mount Pleasant Exeter Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Good · 18 ran 17th 18/1

21 Apr 23 Fontwell Tzunami (GB)J: James Best JEB Homes Building Your Future Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 80/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Henderson's strike rate?: Paul Henderson has won 140 of 1,803 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Henderson do best at?: Ffos Las by strike rate: 7 wins from 41 runners (17.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Henderson?: Tom O'Brien, with 531 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 51 (9.6%).
What is Paul Henderson's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 1,801 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.