Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.38). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 5% off breaks of two months or more (43 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 113 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 4.7%
The read
The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (6.7%, n=30). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.34 across 60 runners (1.7% strike, −29.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Claude Gindre - Grand Steeple Chase de Lyon at Lyon Parilly (FR) (Jun 2020, £20,593).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.7%+2.0
n=43 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −35.80
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
3.1%+0.4
n=32 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.7
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E — · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−2.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
8.3%+5.6
n=12 · A/E 1.94 · £1 −6.80
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a break of 180+ days6.7% vs 2.7% · n=30
Over 1m2f – 1m4f0% vs 2.7% · n=37
In Flat races1.7% vs 2.7% · n=60 · A/E 0.34
On Soft going3.7% vs 2.7% · n=54 · A/E 0.72
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat6011.7%−29.00
Hurdle4112.4%−38.00
Chase1119.1%−2.80
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5423.7%−16.80
Heavy2600%−25.00
Good to Soft1200%−10.00
Good10110%−8.00
Standard (AW)1000%−10.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2900%−29.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)1900%−19.00
Lyon Parilly16212.5%+21.20
Vichy (FR)800%−8.00
Enghien (FR)700%−7.00
Chantilly (FR)600%−6.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)500%−5.00
Vittel (FR)400%−4.00
Longchamp (FR)300%−3.00
Compiegne (FR)200%−2.00
Aix-Les-Bains (FR)200%−2.00
Moulins (FR)200%−1.00
Strasbourg (FR)200%−2.00
Nancy (FR)200%—
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41500%−15.00
Class 11218.3%−6.80
Class 3400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%—−1.00
2nd–3rd fav1119.1%0.62−5.80
4th–6th fav2400%0.00−24.00
7th+ in betting6811.5%0.52−39.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4524.4%−33.80
1m2f – 1m4f3700%−36.00
1m – 1m1f1218.3%+17.00
1m5f – 2m900%−8.00
2m5f – 3m600%−6.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2010500%−5.00
2011100%—
2012200%−2.00
2013500%−4.00
2014200%−2.00
2015300%−3.00
2016400%−4.00
2017100%−1.00
2018600%−6.00
20191500%−13.00
202010220%+27.20
2021200%−2.00
2022700%−7.00
20231100%−11.00
20241000%−10.00
20254125%−3.00
20262500%−24.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5123.9%−15.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners4012.5%−33.80
8-10 runners2400%−23.00
14-16 runners2314.3%+6.00
5-7 runners1218.3%−10.00
17+ runners900%−9.00
2-4 runners400%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 40 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 40 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from F Matzinger (2); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
··00151700000·
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Derby De Tendron (FR) — Prix Claude Gindre - Grand Steeple Chase de Lyon (Chase) (Listed Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · Jun 2020 · Listed
£20,593
Lorlisalsa (FR) — Grand Prix de Parilly (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · May 2020
£7,161
Derby De Tendron (FR) — Prix Groupama (Prix Des Potiers) (Hurdle) (Conditions) (5yo+) (Turf) Wissembourg (FR) · May 2025
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2010 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Kapgarde (FR)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,631 runs since 2008 (725 horses).
American Post (GB)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,964 runs since 2008 (263 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.9% from 108.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 114 · newest first
The latest 50 of 114 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 31 October 2006 to 30 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Eveno's strike rate?
S Eveno has won 3 of 113 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is S Eveno in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is S Eveno's Fair A/E?
0.38, from 102 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Eveno·SR 2.7%·A/E 0.38
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