4:20 Perth
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth over 2m4f35y on good ground brings together a field of ten with a clear KTB hierarchy. Follow Charlie tops the Fit ratings on 72 and is the selection, while the next four principals are tightly bunched between 65 and 57. The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with little pressure on the front, which sets up an interesting test for the prominent and held-up runners alike.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated as a lone leader carrying high confidence, one horse is expected to bowl along clear with minimal company. Most of the field, including the top two in the market, are held-up types who will be asked to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove difficult for the closers to reel in on this good ground, particularly given the strong course records of several principals.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Follow Charlie KTB Selection72/100
Follow Charlie is a smart performer with a solid record here at Perth, where he has won three times from eight starts including a recent success. He has won three times on good ground from six attempts and is proven at this trip with five wins from 16 starts overall. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that will see him biding his time behind the expected lone leader. Trainer R Mike Smith has a modest 7% strike rate at the track from 378 runs with an A/E of 0.69, but this is offset by jockey Murray Dodd's strong 38% strike rate at Perth from eight rides with an A/E of 3.31. Recent form of 94-411 underlines his current wellbeing, and he is taken to land this.
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2Annie Agnew65/100
Annie Agnew is a useful mare who has shown her best form at this track, finishing second twice from four runs here. She is competitive on good ground, having placed on two of five starts, and has also placed at today's trip though she is still seeking her first win in either sphere. The six-year-old is another who is usually held up and produces her effort late, fitting the profile of those who will need to close on the clear leader. Trainer Gerald Stephen Quinn has an 18% strike rate at Perth from 40 runs with an A/E of 1.12, while jockey Mr D McGill posts a 27% strike rate at the track from 11 rides with an A/E of 2.17. Her recent form of 5P-402 suggests she remains in reasonable order.
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3Spit Spot64/100
Spit Spot is a smart performer who has won twice over this course from seven runs and arrives off the back of a fall last time out. He drops back from three miles to a trip at which he has been placed once from two starts, though his record on good ground is only modest with one win from twelve attempts. The seven-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see him ideally placed in what is expected to be a lone-leader scenario. Trainer Lucinda Russell has an 8% strike rate at Perth from 100 runs with an A/E of 0.64, while Jack Power is operating at a 20% strike rate from 25 rides with an A/E of 1.25. Recent form reads 647P-F.
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4Lets Mingle62/100
Lets Mingle is a smart performer who has already won twice here including at this trip. Solid placed efforts sandwich a recent win and the good-ground record reads well enough with two wins from seven starts and three places. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, meaning he will be among those trying to bridge the gap to the uncontested leader. Trainer Lucinda Russell has a modest 8% strike rate at the track from 100 runs with an A/E of 0.64, but jockey Gregor Walkingshaw is operating above expectations with a 15% strike rate at Perth from 20 rides and an A/E of 1.18. His recent form is U-3515.
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5Garrick Painter57/100
Garrick Painter is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Perth. He has been below form in two completed starts this year yet his overall profile and course record of one win from one start still command respect. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, in keeping with the majority of the field. Trainer Noel C Kelly has an 11% strike rate at Perth from 46 runs with an A/E of 0.74, which is offset by James Bowen's strong record of 26% at the track from 107 rides with an A/E of 1.33. He steps up in trip today with recent form reading /1-06S.
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6Lowlands57/100
Lowlands is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just three visits. He has been consistent in stronger company lately but now drops back from 2m7f, with recent form of 3-1244. Trainer Nicky Richards has a solid 15% strike rate here from 652 runs with an A/E of 0.89, though jockey Danny McMenamin posts an 11% record at Perth from 234 rides with an A/E of 0.77.
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7Kinbara Firstdraft56/100
Kinbara Firstdraft is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy but the figures still back him up as competitive at this level, and he steps up in class with form of 574546. Trainer and jockey both have established records here though neither is especially potent.
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8Hawkseye View52/100
Hawkseye View is a useful performer who has won at today's trip and placed twice from six runs on good ground. Recent form is mixed and this is his first run at Perth, removing any course knowledge from the equation. Trainer and jockey both hold steady rather than strong records at the track.
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9Bogha Baiste49/100
Bogha Baiste is a smart performer who showed useful form when placed three times last season and ran a solid race when fourth on reappearance here over two miles. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, with recent form P334-4. Trainer has a strong record at Perth while the jockey's strike rate at the track is more modest.
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10Tigress Lilly36/100
Tigress Lilly is a fair mare who has been well exposed at Perth, finishing no better than fifth from seven starts here without placing. She steps up in trip for the first time today having looked limited over shorter, with recent form 00-665. Both trainer and jockey have modest 8% strike rates at the track from large samples and the yard's recent runners suggest she will need to improve to get competitive.
KTB verdict
Follow Charlie is the KTB Selection. He brings a smart level of ability, a strong course record of three wins from eight starts at Perth, and proven effectiveness on good ground as well as at this trip. His held-up style should allow him to travel into the race before delivering his effort late in what is likely to be an uncontested lead up front. The main dangers are Annie Agnew, who has shown her best form with two seconds at the track, and the course winners Spit Spot and Lets Mingle, both of whom bring solid Perth form and recent competitiveness.
KTB Selection Follow Charlie
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Spit Spot tends to make the running or race on the pace and fits the lone-leader pace shape.
How many course winners are in the field?
Follow Charlie (3 from 8), Spit Spot (2 from 7), Lets Mingle (2 from 5), Garrick Painter (1 from 1), Lowlands (1 from 3) and Kinbara Firstdraft (1 from 9) have all won at Perth.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Perth?
Murray Dodd has a 38% strike rate at Perth from eight rides with an A/E of 3.31.
Who is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Bogha Baiste steps up in trip today for the first time, as does Tigress Lilly.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Perth among those represented?
Gerald Stephen Quinn has an 18% strike rate at Perth from 40 runs with an A/E of 1.12.
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