3:42 Epsom
This Class 4 apprentices' Derby handicap over 1m4f at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together a compact field of seven. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Charmaine and Crooked Path sharing a 58 score, just ahead of Galaxy Star on 57 and Gordon Grey on 54. Overall the numbers suggest a race where course knowledge, proven stamina at the trip and the ability to handle an uncontested lead will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Gordon Grey making the running with little to no pressure from the others. The bulk of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort late. This sets up a key question of whether the clear leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back on this stiff track, or whether the closers can bridge the gap in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Charmaine KTB Selection58/100
Charmaine arrives in decent nick having won last time out and carries a KTB Fit of 58. She is a fair performer who has scored twice from eight starts at this trip. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces her effort late. James Fanshawe has a 12% strike rate at Epsom from 76 runs, though the yard and jockey combination shows 1 win from 11 rides with an A/E of 0.69. She has no experience at the track and only one run on good to soft ground in which she failed to place.
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2Crooked Path58/100
Crooked Path is rated a modest performer yet has shown some spark this year, posting a win and a second from his last two starts to match the top KTB Fit score of 58. He has already placed over course and distance on good to soft ground. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. James Owen holds a strong 21% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.36 from 14 runs, while jockey Mason Paetel is even better at 33% with an A/E of 1.92 from nine rides. Stall one could prove handy if he settles early.
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3Galaxy Star57/100
Galaxy Star is a fair performer with a KTB Fit of 57 who has shown mixed results this year, including a win on good-to-soft ground. He has failed to land a blow in two tries at this trip but is dropping in class. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. Alan King has a 16% strike rate at Epsom from 45 runs with an A/E of 1.2, though the yard and jockey line reads 0 from 7. The 3lb claimer is unproven at the track, yet the yard's record and the horse's proven ability on this ground provide a solid base.
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4Gordon Grey54/100
Gordon Grey is a fair performer with a KTB Fit of 54 who knows his way around Epsom, having won three of his six starts here. He has also won at this trip and is proven on good to soft ground, though he has never managed a win on it. He tends to make the running or race prominently. George Baker has an 11% strike rate at the track from 122 runs with an A/E of 0.85, but the yard and jockey combination shows 2 wins from 20 rides with an A/E of 0.86. The jockey is still seeking his first win from seven rides at Epsom.
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5Naval Command48/100
Naval Command is a fair performer with a KTB Fit of 48 who has shown mixed results since a promising start, finishing no better than fifth in his last four starts. He has already tried this trip without success and was well held when fifth on his only visit to Epsom. Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate at the track from 243 runs.
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6Duc De Kent47/100
Duc De Kent is a modest performer with a KTB Fit of 47 who has been largely out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has never won or placed on good to soft ground from three attempts and has also failed to trouble the judge in two runs at this trip. Ian Williams has an 11% strike rate at Epsom from 122 runs.
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7Epictetus46/100
Epictetus is a fair performer with a KTB Fit of 46 who has won once and placed here from four runs at Epsom. He has shown competitive form on good to soft ground without winning and has been placed at this trip. Jamie Osborne has a modest 6% strike rate at the track from 88 runs.
KTB verdict
Charmaine is the KTB Selection. She arrives in decent nick after a recent win, boasts two wins from eight starts at the trip and is a fair performer who can be expected to come from off the pace. The combination of recent form and stamina at the distance gives her a strong chance in a race where the pace is likely to be dominated by one clear leader. The main dangers are Crooked Path, who has course-and-distance form on similar ground plus strong trainer and jockey figures at Epsom, and Galaxy Star, who brings a win on good to soft and the benefit of his trainer's solid record at the track.
KTB Selection Charmaine
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Gordon Grey, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the field are typically held-up types?
The bulk of the field, with Charmaine, Crooked Path, Galaxy Star, Naval Command, Duc De Kent and Epictetus all described as held up.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Epsom?
Crooked Path's trainer James Owen has a 21% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.36 from 14 runs.
Which runner has won the most times at Epsom?
Gordon Grey, having won three of his six starts here.
Which horse has scored twice from eight starts at this trip?
Charmaine.
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