3:07 Epsom
This Class 5 handicap over 1m2f17y at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together a field of ten modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. The race features several horses with previous experience around this idiosyncratic track, though the majority are making their first visit. Overall the KTB numbers highlight a contest in which course knowledge, ability to handle the trip and a proven record on good to soft ground will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace shape is likely to be strong and the race could collapse in the closing stages. Bobacious and Barry's Boy are the two most likely to take the field along from their wide draws, setting a searching gallop that could stretch the field early. This strongly favours the hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn lower and will look to come from off the pace once the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Bobacious KTB Selection62/100
Bobacious is a modest performer who has won twice from four runs at Epsom and knows his way around this track. He has won at this trip but is only placed once from five runs on good to soft and has been hit and miss this year. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here though the jockey's small sample gives little to go on. As a habitual front-runner he is sure to set the pace from draw 9 in a race where the pace is expected to be strong, which could play against him late on. His course form remains the strongest positive in the race and he steps up in class off the back of recent efforts that include a win.
-
2Beach Point60/100
Beach Point is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win over 1m1f last time. He steps up in trip today to a distance at which he has won three times from 19 starts, and his record on good to soft is a positive with one win from two starts. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Epsom though this is the horse's first run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally suited by the strong pace that is anticipated and could be well placed to pick up the pieces if the leaders fold. His recent winning form gives him a solid platform.
-
3Super Hit55/100
Super Hit is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Epsom and steps up in trip today having scored twice from four starts at this distance. Recent form of 131375 shows mixed results but he has been competitive at this level. The trainer posts a 21% strike rate at Epsom while the jockey is 18% here though the horse has failed to place in his only run on good to soft ground. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace and his course record is a definite plus. The combination of course and distance ability keeps him firmly in the picture.
-
4Carnival Day55/100
Carnival Day is a modest performer who has run creditably around here without winning often. One win from six visits to Epsom plus a solid record on good to soft ground and at this trip give him each-way claims on his best days. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest strike rate at the track is another negative. Dropping in class from a low draw he is another who will be held up and produced late, which looks ideal given the expected strong pace. His course and going record provide the main reasons for interest.
-
5Patrol51/100
Patrol is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency that includes two placed efforts in his last three starts. He has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground and at this trip though he is yet to win at either. The yard holds a respectable record at Epsom while the jockey is still seeking a first success here. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be another looking to benefit from the strong pace collapsing late on. His consistency makes him a reliable each-way contender on his best form.
-
6Skibo49/100
Skibo is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing placed once in three starts at this trip. Recent efforts have been below that level and the yard's record here is too small a sample to judge. The jockey has a solid 14% strike rate from 21 rides at Epsom.
-
7Thankyou Baroness47/100
Thankyou Baroness is a modest performer who has struggled since winning a weak handicap at Kempton last summer. She drops back from 1m4f to a trip she has tried three times without success and has never raced on good to soft ground. The trainer has only two runs at Epsom while the jockey holds a solid 24% strike rate here.
-
8Moonrunner46/100
Moonrunner is a fair performer on the balance of his five runs and has shown consistent placed form this year. He has already tried this trip once without success and the yard's modest record at Epsom offers little encouragement. The jockey's own modest strike rate here adds to the negatives.
-
9Barry's Boy45/100
Barry's Boy is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts. He has only run once on good to soft ground and once at this trip so both are unproven at this level. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Epsom.
-
10Yokkell34/100
Yokkell is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and is now dropping back in trip having last run over 1m4½f. He has won twice at this distance from 14 attempts and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground. The yard has yet to strike at Epsom from six runs while the jockey has a 9% strike rate here from 35 rides.
KTB verdict
Bobacious is the KTB Selection. He knows this track better than any of his rivals having won twice from four runs at Epsom and his proven ability to make the running fits the shape of the race, even if the strong pace could test his stamina late on. His course record and the yard's respectable strike rate at the venue give him the strongest claims. The main dangers are Beach Point, who arrives in form, has a good record on good to soft and is ideally suited by the strong pace from the rear, and Super Hit, who has already won at Epsom and at the trip. Carnival Day and Patrol are the best of the rest and could place if the race falls apart in the straight.
KTB Selection Bobacious
This is the narrative read of the 3:07 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most likely to set the early pace?
Bobacious and Barry's Boy are the two habitual front-runners in the field.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace is likely to be strong with two or more front-runners, which could cause the leaders to collapse late on.
Which horse has the best course record at Epsom?
Bobacious has won twice from four runs at Epsom.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Epsom in this race?
James Owen has a 21% strike rate at Epsom.
Which principals are proven on good to soft ground?
Beach Point has one win from two starts on good to soft, Carnival Day has one win from three, and Patrol has been placed once from four starts on the surface.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies