4:17 Epsom
A Class 6 handicap over 1m4f6y at Epsom on good to soft ground brings together a field of fifteen three-year-olds, most of whom are still unproven at the trip and on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Flag Of Eva, Shirakawa and A Daughters Love all rated in the low sixties, underlining how modest the overall standard is. Several runners are dropping in class while the majority step up in distance for the first time, so stamina and how they handle the genuine pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape expected, a front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types in what should develop into a fair test. Flag Of Eva is the most forward of the principals from his prominent style, while Blue Hill can also race handily. The remainder are predominantly held-up runners, which sets up the key question of whether the prominent horses can dictate and hold off the late challengers coming from off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Flag Of Eva KTB Selection63/100
Flag Of Eva is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form without winning in four starts. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 16% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.45 from 44 runs while jockey Harry Davies posts a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 1.2 from 35 rides here. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track. He races prominently, usually handily on or close to the lead, though that read comes with limited evidence and low confidence. Dropping in class from a wide draw of 15, he remains unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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2Shirakawa62/100
Shirakawa is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having never raced beyond 1m3f so this is a fresh question while he is also unproven on good to soft ground. The yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Epsom from 157 runs with an A/E of 1.13 and the jockey is even better with a 33% record and A/E of 2.11 from his 27 rides here. Dropping in class, he is held up and usually produces his effort late with medium confidence in that run-style. He has no course form on record.
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3A Daughters Love61/100
A Daughters Love is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two placed efforts from her last six starts. She drops back from 1m6f to a trip she has won over already, though she has never raced on good to soft ground. Trainer David Flood has a strong 14% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.78 from only seven runs while the jockey's 8% record from 13 rides is more modest with an A/E of 0.43. She is held up and usually produces her effort late with high confidence in that run-style. She has no course form on record and is dropping in class.
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4Sullom Voe61/100
Sullom Voe is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date. He steps up in trip today for a yard that operates at a solid 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.03 from 38 runs. The 3lb claimer has an excellent recent record at the track with a 33% strike rate and A/E of 1.92 from nine rides. He is held up and usually produces his effort late though that comes with limited evidence and low confidence. Dropping in class, the small amount of form on offer makes this one hard to fancy and he remains unproven on good to soft ground with no course form on record.
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5Blue Hill59/100
Blue Hill is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three runs, finishing fifth, fourth and fifth without looking like winning. The step up to 1m4f is a fresh question and the wide draw in stall 13 will not help on this track. Jockey Benoit de la Sayette has a solid 24% strike rate from 37 rides at Epsom with an A/E of 1.52. The trainer and jockey combined record shows 0% from 16 runs with an A/E of 0.00. He races prominently, usually handily on or close to the lead with limited evidence and low confidence in that style, is dropping in class and remains unproven on good to soft ground with no course form on record.
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6Time To Sparkle55/100
Time To Sparkle is a modest performer who has been busy and shown some consistency with form of 153231 from 11 starts. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the good to soft ground has produced just one unplaced run so far. This is the first run at Epsom for both horse and connections.
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7Eshowe54/100
Eshowe is a limited performer who has been beaten a long way in three starts to date. Stall one hands him the rail but offers no compensation for his lack of competitiveness at this trip. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates around here.
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8Antiquarian52/100
Antiquarian has shown very little in three starts since a fair debut fifth, finishing well beaten on each occasion and looking a modest performer on the balance of his form. The step up to 1m4f is a fresh question for this lightly-raced 3-year-old. Trainer Gary and Josh Moore hold a solid 15% strike rate at Epsom from 60 runs while jockey Rhys Clutterbuck records a 17% strike rate from 81 rides here.
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9Eze Sur Mer52/100
Eze Sur Mer is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut fourth and has looked limited in four starts since. Drawn wide here and still has a question to answer at this trip. Trainer has a modest 9% strike-rate at Epsom while the jockey is operating above expectations with an 18% record at the track.
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10Tenison51/100
Tenison is a modest performer who has shown some spark, winning a weak handicap last month before a creditable seventh in better company at Newmarket. He drops back in trip to 1m4f today having last run over 1m6f, which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Epsom from 77 runs while the jockey records 9% from 35 rides here.
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11Daretobedifferent47/100
Daretobedifferent is a modest performer who has been busy this year and shown bits of form without winning since a 1m maiden success on debut. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while his only previous run on good to soft ground brought no win or place. Trainer has only two runs at Epsom so far while the jockey holds a solid 14% strike rate here from 173 rides.
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12Darkest Red46/100
Darkest Red is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing in the first four on six of his last seven starts. He has run just once at Epsom, finishing a fair fourth, while the trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at the track. Dropping back in trip today having been outstayed over further last time, he remains unproven on good to soft ground.
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13Fletcher41/100
Fletcher is a limited performer who has shown his best at this track with two placed efforts from three runs here. He steps up in trip today having looked one-paced over shorter last time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a modest record at Epsom while the 5lb claimer adds a bit of value from a small-sample positive strike-rate.
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14Cormorant Rock40/100
Cormorant Rock is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in eight starts and failed to place in two runs at Epsom. The yard's modest 8% strike-rate here from a big sample is another negative while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. Tyler Heard's 14% strike-rate at the track offers a small positive and the colt has placed once at today's trip.
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15Dijon Gone37/100
Dijon Gone is a limited performer on the balance of his form and ratings. He steps up in trip again today having shown little spark in seven runs and is drawn widest of all in stall 16 at a track where both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates. The yard's 9% record from 32 runs at Epsom and the jockey's 10% from 20 rides give no strong pointers either way.
KTB verdict
Flag Of Eva is the KTB Selection. He is a modest performer with steady placed form behind him and the combination of trainer and jockey both having solid records at Epsom gives him the strongest claims in a race where most are still unproven at the trip and on the ground. The prominent run-style should see him well placed in a genuinely-run contest. His main dangers are Shirakawa, who arrives in good heart with recent wins and placings, and A Daughters Love, who drops back to a winning trip with a solid recent record. Sullom Voe and Blue Hill are next in the KTB Fit scores but have less to recommend them on current form.
KTB Selection Flag Of Eva
This is the narrative read of the 4:17 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up to 1m4f for the first time and has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Flag Of Eva with a KTB Fit Score of 63/100.
How many recent wins has Shirakawa recorded in his last four starts?
Two wins and two seconds from his last four starts.
Which runner drops back from 1m6f to a trip it has already won over?
A Daughters Love.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Epsom for the yard of Sullom Voe?
18% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.03 from 38 runs.
Which horse has shown the most consistency with six of its last seven starts finishing in the first four?
Darkest Red.
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