5:05 Worcester
This Class 5 handicap hurdle division at Worcester over 2m4f on good ground features a field of nine where the KTB Fit scores range from 60 down to 36. The top four in the KTB ranking are separated by only nine points and all hold solid rather than outstanding trainer and jockey track records. Bathara heads the KTB figures as the selection while several others arrive in consistent form or with strong course placings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types for a fair test. Bathara is expected to take them along from the front while Traveling Soldier and Usyk should race prominently. Ikigai Star and American Empire prefer to be held up, as do most of the others, so the key question is whether the early pace holds up or if the race falls apart for those coming from off it.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bathara KTB Selection60/100
Bathara is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race record. He has shown ability on good ground with a win from five starts and shaped well when third on his most recent outing. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question while both trainer and jockey have solid rather than standout records at Worcester. Dropping in class looks a positive and his recent form figures of 12P4-3 underline that he remains competitive at this level. As a confirmed front-runner with high confidence in that run-style he is likely to set the pace in a genuinely-run race. The Jonjo O'Neill yard posts an 11% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.91 from 120 runs and Jonjo O'Neill Jr. has a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.85 from 146 rides.
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2Traveling Soldier58/100
Traveling Soldier is a fair performer who has been placed on four of his five starts at Worcester, including three seconds over this trip. He has shown consistent form this year with two placed efforts from his last three starts and acts on good ground. The yard and jockey both hold solid 22% strike rates at the track. His recent form reads 3P-P32 and he has been placed four times from seven starts on good ground without winning. With a prominent run-style he should be on or close to the early pace in what is set to be a genuinely-run contest. Olly Murphy has a 22% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.96 from 155 runs while Sean Bowen matches that 22% strike rate with an A/E of 1.09 from 449 rides.
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3Ikigai Star54/100
Ikigai Star is a useful performer who has placed on three of four starts at Worcester and arrives in reasonable form after a solid fifth last time. He drops back to a trip he has won at before though he stays further and his recent efforts suggest he may be vulnerable to anything sharper on the day. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track without being dominant. His form figures read 33-P35 and he has three wins from 16 starts on good ground with five placings. A held-up run-style means he will be produced late in a race that should be run at a proper gallop. Charlie Longsdon has a 15% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.87 from 330 runs and David Bass has a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.98 from 219 rides.
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4American Empire51/100
American Empire is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year without winning. He has placed here once and acts on good ground though his record at this trip remains modest. Trainer has a solid Worcester record while the jockey's strike-rate at the track is low. Recent form reads 3-3375 and he has one win from seven starts on good ground with three placings. His held-up run-style with high confidence means he will be towards the rear early in a genuinely-run affair. Donald McCain has a 13% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 0.8 from 316 runs but Theo Gillard has only a 5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.53 from 58 rides.
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5Farhh Echo47/100
Farhh Echo is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little spark when pulled up here last time. Three previous runs at Worcester produced no win or place and he remains winless on good ground from 11 attempts. The trainer's modest 8% strike-rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 20% record here.
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6Usyk42/100
Usyk is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed little at this track on his only visit and the 7 lb claimer is still looking for her first Worcester winner from seven rides. Stepping up markedly in trip asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 15% strike-rate here from 33 runs adds no real encouragement.
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7Inca40/100
Inca is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form on both starts this year after a long absence. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. Trainer and jockey both have established but unspectacular records at Worcester.
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8Dynamite Defense39/100
Dynamite Defense is a fair performer who has been placed over this trip and on this ground without winning. He has run six times at Worcester for one placing and no success, while the yard's modest 3% strike-rate here from 119 runs adds little confidence. The jockey also has a low 5% record at the track from 292 rides.
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9Babychino36/100
Babychino is a fair performer on his best days but has been inconsistent and has failed to complete in two of his last three starts. He has shown some ability at this trip and on good ground yet looks vulnerable on balance given his poor record here and the first-time headgear. Both trainer and jockey are without a winner from their respective double-figure samples at Worcester.
KTB verdict
Bathara is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race record, has shown ability on good ground, and shaped well when third last time out while dropping in class. His front-running style should see him set the pace in a genuinely-run race. The main dangers are Traveling Soldier with his excellent Worcester record and multiple placings over the trip, Ikigai Star who has placed three times here and drops back to a winning distance, and American Empire who has been consistent this year and has placed at the track.
KTB Selection Bathara
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has a front-running style?
Bathara is dropping in class, has recent form of 12P4-3, and is a front-runner with high confidence in that run-style.
How many times has Traveling Soldier been placed at Worcester?
Traveling Soldier has been placed on four of his five starts at Worcester, including three seconds over this trip.
Which runners prefer a held-up run-style?
Ikigai Star, American Empire, Farhh Echo, Dynamite Defense and Babychino are all held-up types.
What is the course record of the selection at Worcester?
Bathara has no course form on record.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Babychino is wearing first-time headgear.
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