What is Fern O'Brien's strike rate?

Fern O'Brien has won 33 of 282 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Fern O'Brien ride most for?

Fergal O'Brien, with 212 rides since 2022 — 75% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (12.3%).

Is Fern O'Brien in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Fern O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.86, from 280 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Fern O'Brien

282 rides in the last 5 seasons · 151 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

33–282

Wins / Runs

11.7%

Strike rate

n=282

93 (33%)

Placed

0.86

Fair A/E

n=280 · 0.74 incl. margin

−141.97

£1 level stake

n=282 at SP · −50.3%

£326k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 60 times a season, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.86). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 26% (38 rides). Rides mostly for Fergal O'Brien — 75% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 282 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 51.6% when favourite Fergal O'Brien: 12.3% from 212 First rides: 12.8% LTO winners: 26.3% Claiming: 12.2% Rides the favourite in 11% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 26.3% (n=38, Fair A/E 1.18), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 6.1% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.57). Fergal O'Brien supplies 75% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.3%, A/E 0.90). The rider also reads well in Class 5 (18.5%, n=108). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 5% over 40 rides, 6.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.53 across 69 rides (7.2% strike, −50.87 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

12.8%+1.1

n=148 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −56.86

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

26.3%+14.6

n=38 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −10.98

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.1%−5.6

n=66 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −45.00

When favourite

51.6%

n=31 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +11.62

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

12.2%+0.5

n=255 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −123.22

Big fields · 14+ runners

11.5%−0.2

n=26 · A/E 1.74 · £1 −11.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−11.7

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 26.3% vs 11.7% · n=38

In Class 5 18.5% vs 11.7% · n=108

On Soft going 5% vs 11.7% · n=40

In Class 3 5% vs 11.7% · n=40

In Chase races 5.7% vs 11.7% · n=35

Over 2m5f – 3m 7.2% vs 11.7% · n=69

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 180 25 13.9% −65.09

Flat 45 3 6.7% −33.00

Chase 35 2 5.7% −30.63

NH Flat 22 3 13.6% −13.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 144 19 13.2% −52.56

Good to Soft 55 6 10.9% −33.57

Soft 40 2 5% −33.25

Good to Firm 18 4 22.2% −3.50

Standard (AW) 15 1 6.7% −11.00

Heavy 10 1 10% −8.09

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Market Rasen 17 3 17.6% −9.27

Stratford 16 2 12.5% +2.25

Ludlow 15 3 20% −5.70

Newton Abbot 13 2 15.4% −4.92

Huntingdon 13 4 30.8% +3.00

Uttoxeter 13 2 15.4% +0.25

Worcester 12 0 0% −12.00

Fontwell 11 0 0% −11.00

Chepstow 10 1 10% −7.00

Cheltenham 9 0 0% −9.00

Southwell 9 0 0% −9.00

Cartmel 9 1 11.1% −2.00

Hereford 8 1 12.5% −3.67

Fakenham 7 3 42.9% +5.06

Taunton 7 1 14.3% −5.09

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 108 20 18.5% −20.68

Class 4 101 10 9.9% −64.04

Class 3 40 2 5% −30.25

Class 6 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 2 11 1 9.1% −5.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 41 18 43.9% 1.37 +9.37

2nd–3rd fav 89 11 12.4% 0.70 −38.34

4th–6th fav 88 3 3.4% 0.42 −64.00

7th+ in betting 64 1 1.6% 0.42 −49.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87.4% completed · 215 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 35 82.9% 1 2 3 0 0

Hurdle 180 88.3% 7 1 13 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Mistral Blue (GB) 12 2 5 8 Oct 26

Zhang Fei (FR) 12 2 6 30 Jun 26

Jager Time (IRE) 11 2 5 10 Oct 26

Lilting Verse (IRE) 9 0 3 24 Mar 26

Stoner's Choice (GB) 8 0 1 24 Oct 26

Snatch A Glance (GB) 6 1 1 12 Jul 26

Kingston Sunflower (FR) 5 2 2 12 Jun 26

Cooler Than Me (GB) 5 2 4 4 Apr 26

Global Esteem (IRE) 5 2 4 4 Dec 24

Zenato (IRE) 4 2 2 16 Oct 26

Casting Aspersions (IRE) 4 3 3 7 Oct 25

Roi De Baviere (FR) 4 0 0 19 May 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 151 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

81541716101219582210

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardFergal O'Brien

75% of all rides
12.3% SR · A/E 0.90

TrainerRWSR£1

Fergal O'Brien 212 26 12.3% −101.84

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

Archived wins

£341k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 12 wins

Nap Hand (IRE) — Scone Estates Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race) Perth · Aug 2026 · Class 2

£13,008

Espoir De Teillee (FR) — Pytchley Open Hunters' Chase Leicester · Feb 2023 · Class 3

£7,700

I Still Have Faith (GB) — Turners Amateur Jockeys' Cambridgeshire (Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2023 · Class 4

£7,451

Notable horses

Casting Aspersions (IRE) Zhang Fei (FR) Mistral Blue (GB) Jager Time (IRE) Cooler Than Me (GB) Lord P (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Champs Elysees (GB) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,126 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.

Blue Bresil (FR) 15.4% · 2–13

Progeny have won 12.2% of 3,527 runs since 2013 (461 horses).

Camelot (GB) 15.4% · 2–13

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,717 runs since 2017 (758 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,835 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 819.

Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11

Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,870 runs since 2013 (684 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.

Golden Horn (GB) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 13.9% of 3,752 runs since 2019 (346 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 163. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 233.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 298 · newest first

The latest 50 of 298 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 August 2021 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Carlisle Kamsinas (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 11/1

28 Oct 26 Newton Abbot Miss Spec (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 8/1

24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Stoner's Choice (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24f · Good · 19 ran PU 66/1

23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Wild Goose (IRE)T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 6/1

21 Oct 26 Fontwell County Champs (IRE)T: Chris Gordon tigerbet.co.uk Extra Place Races Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 21.5f · Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/2

17 Oct 26 Stratford Mojo Ego (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Annual Membership For Christmas Female Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Female Professional Jockeys And Amateur Riders' Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 4/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Div Ine Glance (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 6th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Zenato (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien We Buy Cars On The Go Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 14/1

15 Oct 26 Fontwell Goodwin (IRE)T: Chris Gordon BETTING.BET Free Racing Tips Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 5th 10/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Milly Ocean (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Lsl Racing Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 5/2

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Jager Time (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 9th 16/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Georgia's Charm (IRE)T: Fergal O'Brien Alan Bushell Racing Remembers Alan Davies Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 8 ran F 4/1

09 Oct 26 Chepstow Chicker (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien DragonBet Persian War Novices' Hurdle Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 8th 50/1

08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Mistral Blue (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Park Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 9/1

08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Sun Art (FR)T: Fergal O'Brien Summer Plate Ladies Day 2027 On Sale Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran PU 5/4F

05 Oct 26 Stratford Juan Bermudez (GB)T: Henry Oliver QuinnBet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 22f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 3rd 7/2

23 Sep 26 Perth Chicker (GB)T: Fergal O'Brien Harvesting What Matters Most Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 11/4

22 Sep 26 Fontwell Goodwin Face (FR)T: Chris Gordon Download The At The Races App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 9/2

20 Sep 26 Plumpton Nap Hand (IRE)T: Chris Gordon Friends & Family Remembering Norman Sharpe Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 4th 15/8F

10 Sep 26 Worcester Babychino (IRE)T: Alexander Gibbons CopyBet Bog Now For Doncaster Tomorrow Handicap Hurdle Race (Div II)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 0, 2 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 1 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Fern O'Brien's strike rate?: Fern O'Brien has won 33 of 282 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Fern O'Brien ride most for?: Fergal O'Brien, with 212 rides since 2022 — 75% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (12.3%).
Is Fern O'Brien in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Fern O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.86, from 280 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.