1:20 Ayr
This Class 4 fillies' nursery over 7f50y at Ayr on soft ground features a field of nine lightly raced two-year-olds, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up. The KTB Fit scores identify Missouri Waltz as the clear top pick on 70, with Motown Filly, Diplomata and Necromancer the only others above 55. A strong pace is anticipated, which adds an extra layer to the puzzle given the mix of front-runners and hold-up types on a surface that remains unproven for much of the field.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is likely to be strong, and the high-confidence assessment points to the possibility of it collapsing in the later stages. Missouri Waltz is the most established front-runner while Bai Tong can also go forward, potentially setting it up for those racing prominently or coming from off the pace. The key question is which hold-up performers can capitalise if the leaders go too hard, with several runners including Motown Filly, Diplomata and Necromancer all having that style in their locker.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Missouri Waltz KTB Selection70/100
Missouri Waltz showed useful promise when winning on debut over this trip before finishing second when stepped up to a mile last time. The drop back in distance looks a sensible move for a fair 2-year-old who remains lightly raced. Trainer Adrian Keatley holds a 19% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.2 from 177 runs while jockey M. P. Sheehy posts a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.24 from 14 rides. She tends to make the running or race prominently, which could be an asset if the pace does not overcook itself. The yard's overall trainer and jockey record reads 11/90 (12%) with an A/E of 1.03. Dropping in class is another plus though she remains unproven on soft ground and has no course form on record.
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2Motown Filly62/100
Motown Filly has shown fair form in three runs, finishing runner-up twice including a solid effort last time. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. The yard holds a 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.29 from 42 runs while Saffie Osborne is operating at a 27% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.47 from 11 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be suited if the race develops with a strong pace that collapses. The trainer and jockey record stands at 25/117 (21%) with an A/E of 1.29. She is dropping in class but remains unproven on soft ground with no course form on record.
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3Diplomata61/100
Diplomata is a fair performer who showed her best when winning a soft-ground maiden over this trip last time. She has a solid record on this surface and the yard and jockey both strike at a good rate around here. William Haggas has a 26% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.1 from 129 runs while Tom Marquand posts a 21% strike rate with an A/E of 1.12 from 24 rides. Usually held up with limited evidence, she could be well placed if the strong pace takes its toll late. The trainer and jockey record reads 455/2125 (21%) with an A/E of 0.91. Stepping up in class from a four-run profile, stall seven looks no hardship.
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4Necromancer56/100
Necromancer is a modest performer who has shown some promise in three runs. He won on soft ground at this trip last time and that looks a positive on today's surface. Ralph Beckett has a 19% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.08 from 58 runs while Jason Hart posts a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.95 from 564 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence, he could benefit if the race sets up for closers as the strong pace folds. The trainer and jockey record stands at 3/8 (38%). He remains lightly raced overall and has no course form on record.
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5One Shot Kodi52/100
One Shot Kodi is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second over this trip on his latest start. The Kevin Ryan yard has a 10% strike rate from 859 runs at Ayr while Oisin McSweeney is operating at an 18% strike rate from his 50 rides here. Usually held up with limited evidence, the trip looks suitable but with only four career runs the effect of soft ground remains an unknown as he steps up in class.
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6Sara's Silver Girl46/100
Sara's Silver Girl is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far, finishing fifth on her only visit to Ayr. She steps up to 7f for the first time today after two previous runs at the distance without success, and the small sample means her effectiveness on soft ground remains unknown. The Easterby yard holds an 11% strike rate here while Joanna Mason posts a 13% record from her rides at the track. Typically settles in midfield.
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7Global Success44/100
Global Success is a modest performer with consistent recent form but no wins from eight starts. He has been on the scene without landing a blow at this trip twice already and showed little on his only soft-ground run. The yard and jockey both have modest records at Ayr. Usually held up with high confidence.
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8Bai Tong43/100
Bai Tong is a modest performer on the balance of his three runs to date, finishing second on debut before two placed efforts that suggest he is still learning his job. Steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than standout records at Ayr. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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9Texting36/100
Texting is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. Steps up to 7f for the first time today after looking stretched at 6f last time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer records a modest 5% strike rate at Ayr while the jockey is more established with a 9% record at the track. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Missouri Waltz stands out as the KTB Selection. She showed useful promise when winning on debut over this trip before a solid second when stepped up to a mile, and the return to 7f looks ideal for a fair and lightly raced 2-year-old. The drop in class, prominent run-style and the yard's strong record at Ayr all add to her appeal even if soft ground is unproven. Diplomata brings soft-ground winning form and a good record for the Haggas/Marquand team, while Motown Filly and Necromancer are the other principals who could capitalise if the strong pace does collapse late.
KTB Selection Missouri Waltz
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri Waltz | 13/2 | Midnite |
| Motown Filly | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Diplomata | 6/4 | Bet365 |
| Necromancer | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| One Shot Kodi | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Sara's Silver Girl | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Global Success | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Bai Tong | 14/1 | Midnite |
| Texting | 70/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won on soft ground at this trip?
Diplomata and Necromancer have each won on soft ground at this trip.
How does the expected strong pace influence the race?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Ayr among those represented?
William Haggas has a 26% strike rate at Ayr.
Who is the only horse with course form in the field?
Sara's Silver Girl, who finished fifth on her only visit to Ayr.
Which principals are dropping in class?
Missouri Waltz and Motown Filly are dropping in class.
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