3:05 Ayr
The 3:05 at Ayr is the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes, a six-furlong contest for two-year-olds run on soft ground and carrying the Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup. A field of nine lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting Silent Beauty at the head of the Fit rankings on 70. Three of the principals come into the race off the back of recent wins, yet several runners remain unproven on soft ground, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to an already competitive Class 1 event.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace expected and at least two habitual front-runners present, the race is likely to be run at a searching gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the closing stages. Etonnante, Angels Passing, Silesia and Nour all tend to race on or near the lead, while Dark Issue is usually prominent, setting up the possibility of the pace collapsing late. That shape would play into the hands of hold-up performers, with the key question being which horse can produce its effort at the right time off this testing surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Silent Beauty KTB Selection70/100
Silent Beauty arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 70 and is the clear selection. This twice-raced winner boasts form figures of 101 and showed she handles soft ground when scoring at the first attempt on it. Usually held up, she produces her effort late, which looks ideal given the anticipated strong pace. The Kevin Philippart de Foy yard posts a 25% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.61, though the trainer-jockey combination shows a 29/178 (16%) record with an A/E of 0.78. David Egan has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.71, yet the filly's ability to act on the going and her hold-up style make her well placed to capitalise if the leaders fold.
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2Ruby Moon65/100
Ruby Moon is rated second in the KTB Fit figures on 65 and brings solid form having won on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race. She typically settles in midfield, a run-style that could prove advantageous if the pace collapses late on this soft surface. The Richard & Peter Fahey stable has a 14% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.42 from 28 runs, while the trainer-jockey record stands at 21/137 (15%) with an A/E of 1.03. Oisin Orr holds a 9% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.6 from 186 rides. The one concern is that she has no experience on soft ground, leaving her unproven under these conditions.
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3Dark Issue63/100
Dark Issue holds a KTB Fit rating of 63 and has shown useful form, winning on debut and finishing second last time out after a creditable effort in between. Usually prominent, he races handily on or close to the lead, which could leave him vulnerable if the strong pace takes its toll late. Richard Hannon's record at Ayr is 8% with an A/E of 0.81 from 40 runs, but Tom Marquand is a positive booking with a 22% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.24 from 27 rides. The trainer-jockey combination is 156/1278 (12%) with an A/E of 0.87. Like several others he is unproven on soft ground, which adds a note of caution.
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4Etonnante57/100
Etonnante is rated 57 on KTB Fit and steps up in class after winning two of her three starts, including a recent success. She tends to make the running or race prominently, which places her right in the firing line given the strong pace shape and the likelihood of it collapsing late. Karl Burke's Ayr record stands at 13% with an A/E of 0.85 from a large sample of 620 runs, while Clifford Lee has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.93 from 228 rides. The trainer-jockey partnership shows 406/2524 (16%) with an A/E of 0.93. She has no experience of soft ground, remaining unproven under these conditions.
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5Starburster54/100
Starburster is next in the KTB Fit order on 54 and steps up in class after two promising runs that yielded a win. Usually held up, he could be suited by the strong pace, yet he has no experience of soft ground and remains unproven on it. The Richard Spencer yard has a 15% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.1, while Saffie Osborne posts an 18% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.
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6Angels Passing53/100
Angels Passing holds a KTB Fit of 53 and has won one of three starts. A front-runner who tends to make the running, he could help set the strong pace but is unproven on soft ground. Kevin Ryan's record at Ayr is 10% with an A/E of 0.77 from 866 runs, and Kevin Stott has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.92.
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7Angel In My Heart50/100
Angel In My Heart is rated 50 on KTB Fit and steps up in class after consistent form that includes a win and two seconds. Usually held up, he could benefit if the pace collapses, though he remains unproven on soft ground. Adrian Keatley's Ayr record stands at 18% with an A/E of 1.19 from 181 runs, while M. P. Sheehy holds an 11% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.06.
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8Silesia46/100
Silesia has a KTB Fit of 46 and brings placed form from four of her five starts, including recent efforts. A front-runner who races on the pace, she is likely to be involved early in what is expected to be a strong gallop but has no experience of soft ground. Kevin Ryan's Ayr figures are 10% with an A/E of 0.77, and Tom Eaves has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.84.
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9Nour42/100
Nour is bottom of the KTB Fit ratings on 42 and has shown fair form with two wins and two places from four starts. She tends to race prominently and could help force the strong pace, yet she has only one run on soft ground which produced no win or place. She has also run once at Ayr, finishing sixth with no win or place. K. R. Burke's Ayr record is 13% with an A/E of 0.85, and Sam James has a 10% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.79.
KTB verdict
Silent Beauty is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 70. Her wins on debut and on soft ground, allied to a hold-up run-style that should suit the expected strong pace, give her a clear profile for this race. The selection can capitalise if the leaders go too hard and the pace collapses late. Main dangers are Ruby Moon, who settles in midfield and has strong trainer Ayr figures, and Dark Issue, whose prominent style is a slight concern but who is ridden by the in-form Tom Marquand at a track where he excels. Etonnante is likely to set the fractions but must prove she handles soft ground stepping up in class.
KTB Selection Silent Beauty
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Silent Beauty | 7/4 | 7Bet |
| Ruby Moon | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Dark Issue | 11/4 | William Hill |
| Etonnante | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Starburster | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Angels Passing | 16/1 | Bet Victor |
| Angel In My Heart | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Silesia | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Nour | 40/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Silent Beauty, who is usually held up and produces her effort late.
How many runners are proven on soft ground?
Only Silent Beauty, who has one win from one run on soft, and Nour, who has one run on soft with no win or place.
Which jockey has the strongest record at Ayr in this field?
Tom Marquand, with a 22% strike rate at Ayr and an A/E of 1.24 from 27 rides.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Ayr among those represented?
Adrian Keatley, with an 18% strike rate at Ayr and an A/E of 1.19 from 181 runs.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Held up — usually held up and produces its effort late.
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