2:30 Ayr
The Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup is a fiercely competitive Class 2 handicap over six furlongs on soft ground at Ayr, featuring a maximum field of 25 runners. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with only four points separating the top five in a race where the numbers point to a strong pace likely to test the leaders late. The selection, Toyotomi, tops the KTB Fit rankings on 62 and brings a combination of hold-up run style and key course and jockey stats into a contest where late closers could be advantaged.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the early fractions are expected to be genuine. Desert Falcon, Deep Havana, Havana Blue, Eternal Sunshine, I'm Next, Jungle Drums and Station X all have front-running or prominent tendencies that should see them contest the lead or race handily. This sets up a race that could collapse late, posing the key question of whether any hold-up performers can weave their way through tiring horses in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Toyotomi KTB Selection62/100
Toyotomi tops the KTB Fit Scores on 62 and is the clear selection. A 5-year-old with recent form figures of 631060, he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run style. David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Ayr from 633 runs with an A/E of 0.91, while Oisin Murphy boasts a 31% strike rate at the track from 26 rides with an A/E of 1.54. He has won once from five starts on soft ground with another placing, though his sole previous run at the course resulted in an 18th-place finish. The combination of hold-up tactics in a race with a strong pace and the positive trainer and jockey course stats makes him well placed to strike late.
-
2Desert Falcon58/100
Desert Falcon is rated at 58 on the KTB Fit Score and arrives with form figures of 2-0996. A 6-year-old who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, he is proven at Ayr having won one of his two starts here. Julie Camacho has a 15% strike rate at the track from 79 runs with an A/E of 1.01, though Ryan Sexton is on 4% from 56 rides with an A/E of 0.35. He has been placed once from one run on soft ground without winning, showing he handles the conditions. His course record and front-running style could see him set or share the strong pace, though he will need to repel the late challengers.
-
3Super Soldier58/100
Super Soldier also scores 58 on the KTB Fit and is a 3-year-old with form figures of 4-0000. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has been placed once from one run on soft ground without winning. K. R. Burke has a 13% strike rate at Ayr from 620 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while Clifford Lee is on 14% from 228 rides with an A/E of 0.93. He has no course form on record. His hold-up run style aligns well with the expected strong pace that could collapse late, giving him scope to close with interest if the leaders tire.
-
4Mirabeau57/100
Mirabeau is next on 57 in the KTB Fit Scores with form figures of -01200. A 4-year-old who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, he boasts solid soft-ground form with two wins from four starts and two further placings. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a 0% strike rate at Ayr from two runs with an A/E of 0, but Daniel Tudhope has a 15% strike rate from 819 rides with an A/E of 0.94. He has no course form on record. His proven ability on soft ground and hold-up style could prove valuable if the race develops as the strong pace shape suggests.
-
5Another Baar55/100
Another Baar is rated 55 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 006070. A 6-year-old who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, he has a course-and-distance placing to his name, having finished second once from two runs at Ayr without winning. Adrian Keatley has an 18% strike rate at the track from 181 runs with an A/E of 1.19, while M. P. Sheehy is on 11% from 18 rides with an A/E of 1.06. He has won once from nine starts on soft with five placings. His course record and hold-up run style fit the shape of a race where late runners could capitalise on any pace collapse.
-
6Lord Roxby54/100
Lord Roxby scores 54 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 452130. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been placed at Ayr on his sole start here and has one run on soft without placing. Nigel Tinkler has a 9% strike rate at the track from 399 runs with an A/E of 0.68, while Alex Jary has an 18% strike rate from 17 rides with an A/E of 1.41.
-
7Deep Havana53/100
Deep Havana is rated 53 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 622221. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with low confidence from limited evidence. He has no runs on soft ground so is unproven on the going, has a 0% strike rate at Ayr for his trainer from one run, but James Doyle has a 25% strike rate at the track from 28 rides with an A/E of 1.25. No course form on record.
-
8Veblen Good53/100
Veblen Good scores 53 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 334407. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been placed on soft ground once from two starts and finished third on his only previous run at Ayr. David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at the track from 633 runs with an A/E of 0.91, though Conor Whiteley is on 14% from seven rides with an A/E of 0.62.
-
9Advertised53/100
Advertised is rated 53 on the KTB Fit with form figures of -29026. Usually held up with high confidence, he has one run on soft without placing and no course form on record. Grant Tuer has a 10% strike rate at Ayr from 77 runs with an A/E of 0.62, while Oliver Stammers has a 10% strike rate from 48 rides with an A/E of 0.98.
-
10Commanche Falls52/100
Commanche Falls scores 52 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 207038. Usually held up with high confidence, he has won once from four starts on soft with a placing and has been placed once from four runs at Ayr. Michael Dods has an 11% strike rate at the track from 1260 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while Paul Mulrennan has a 14% strike rate from 1210 rides with an A/E of 0.97.
-
11Rapper's Delight52/100
Rapper's Delight is rated 52 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 992288. Usually races prominently with medium confidence and is fitted with first-time headgear. He has one run on soft without placing and no course form on record. Richard Spencer has a 15% strike rate at Ayr from 47 runs with an A/E of 1.1, while Saffie Osborne has an 18% strike rate from 17 rides with an A/E of 1.
-
12Tricky Tel51/100
Tricky Tel scores 51 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 110205. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has no runs on soft so is unproven on the ground and no course form on record. Hugo Palmer has an 11% strike rate at Ayr from 71 runs with an A/E of 0.64, while Jack Callan has no record at the track.
-
13Musical Touch50/100
Musical Touch is rated 50 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of -17103. Usually held up with high confidence, he has two runs on soft without placing and finished 15th on his only start at Ayr. Richard & Peter Fahey have a 14% strike rate at the track from 28 runs with an A/E of 1.42, though Warren Fentiman is on 4% from 26 rides with an A/E of 0.38.
-
14Havana Blue49/100
Havana Blue scores 49 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 422211. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence. He has been placed once from three starts on soft without winning and has no course form on record. Julie Camacho has a 15% strike rate at Ayr from 79 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while David Egan has an 8% strike rate from 39 rides with an A/E of 0.71.
-
15Eternal Sunshine49/100
Eternal Sunshine is rated 49 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 260210. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and has won three times from nine starts at Ayr. He has been placed twice from four starts on soft without winning. Jim Goldie has a 10% strike rate at the track from 3636 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while Lauren Young has a 12% strike rate from 84 rides with an A/E of 0.92.
-
16Goldmoyne48/100
Goldmoyne scores 48 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 422386. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has one run on soft without placing and no course form on record. James Owen has a 0% strike rate at Ayr from three runs with an A/E of 0, while Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate from 572 rides with an A/E of 0.96.
-
17I'm Next48/100
I'm Next is rated 48 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 311620. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence. He has two runs on soft without placing and no course form on record. Tim Easterby has an 11% strike rate at Ayr from 979 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while David Allan has a 12% strike rate from 684 rides with an A/E of 0.91.
-
18Korker47/100
Korker scores 47 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 806488. Usually held up with high confidence and now fitted with first-time headgear, he has won once from eight starts on soft with three placings and finished third on his only run at Ayr. K. R. Burke has a 13% strike rate at the track from 620 runs with an A/E of 0.85, though Tom Eaves is on 8% from 1060 rides with an A/E of 0.84.
-
19Trilby47/100
Trilby is rated 47 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 310412. Usually held up with high confidence, he has three wins from ten starts on soft with seven placings overall. Sam England has a 5% strike rate at Ayr from 20 runs with an A/E of 0.4, while Tom Marquand has a 22% strike rate from 27 rides with an A/E of 1.24. He finished seventh on his only course start.
-
20Jungle Drums47/100
Jungle Drums scores 47 on the KTB Fit with form figures of -05144. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence and has won once from three starts on soft with a placing. Jamie Osborne has a 0% strike rate at Ayr from four runs with an A/E of 0, while Sam James has a 10% strike rate from 221 rides with an A/E of 0.79. No course form on record.
-
21We Never Stop45/100
We Never Stop is rated 45 on the KTB Fit and is stepping up in class with form figures of 800207. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has two runs on soft without placing and finished 25th on his only start at Ayr. Kevin Ryan has a 10% strike rate at the track from 866 runs with an A/E of 0.77, while Kevin Stott has a 14% strike rate from 267 rides with an A/E of 0.92.
-
22Brazilian Rose45/100
Brazilian Rose scores 45 on the KTB Fit and is dropping in class with form figures of 569070. Usually held up with high confidence, she has two runs on soft without placing and finished 11th on her only course start. Rebecca Menzies has a 9% strike rate at Ayr from 177 runs with an A/E of 0.74, while Kaiya Fraser has a 4% strike rate from 70 rides with an A/E of 0.43.
-
23Station X44/100
Station X is rated 44 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 641310. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and has won once from four starts on soft with three placings. Bryan Smart has a 10% strike rate at Ayr from 167 runs with an A/E of 0.67, while Oisin Orr has a 9% strike rate from 186 rides with an A/E of 0.6. He finished fourth on his only course start.
-
24Wicket Keeper41/100
Wicket Keeper scores 41 on the KTB Fit with form figures of 42-460. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has no runs on soft so is unproven on the ground and finished 18th on his only start at Ayr. Antony Brittain has a 4% strike rate at the track from 23 runs with an A/E of 0.7, while Cam Hardie has a 3% strike rate from 156 rides with an A/E of 0.5.
-
25Uncle Don41/100
Uncle Don is rated 41 on the KTB Fit with form figures of -25205. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been placed once from two starts on soft without winning and has two placed efforts from two runs at Ayr. Robert Cowell has a 4% strike rate at the track from 28 runs with an A/E of 0.35, while Marco Ghiani has a 0% strike rate from five rides with an A/E of 0.
KTB verdict
Toyotomi is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit Scores in a race where his hold-up style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. He brings positive trainer and jockey Ayr stats, along with soft-ground ability, and the shape of the contest should play to his strengths as the leaders potentially tire late on. His main dangers are the other hold-up types who can also benefit if the pace collapses, particularly Mirabeau with his strong record on soft ground, Another Baar with his course placing, and Super Soldier as a lightly raced 3-year-old. Desert Falcon's course record and front-running role also demand respect in what remains a wide-open handicap.
KTB Selection Toyotomi
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Toyotomi | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Desert Falcon | 8/1 | BetMGM |
| Super Soldier | 33/1 | William Hill |
| Mirabeau | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Another Baar | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Lord Roxby | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Deep Havana | 13/2 | William Hill |
| Veblen Good | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Advertised | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Commanche Falls | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Rapper's Delight | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Tricky Tel | 40/1 | William Hill |
| Musical Touch | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Havana Blue | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Eternal Sunshine | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Goldmoyne | 16/1 | William Hill |
| I'm Next | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Korker | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Trilby | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Jungle Drums | 16/1 | William Hill |
| We Never Stop | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Brazilian Rose | 80/1 | 7Bet |
| Station X | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Wicket Keeper | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Uncle Don | 12/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses in this race?
The pace shape is assessed as strong with high confidence due to two or more habitual front-runners, meaning the pace could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horses are expected to contest the lead or race prominently?
Desert Falcon, Deep Havana, Havana Blue, Eternal Sunshine, I'm Next, Jungle Drums and Station X all have front-running or prominent tendencies.
How many wins has Eternal Sunshine recorded at Ayr?
Eternal Sunshine has won three times from nine starts at Ayr.
What is Oisin Murphy's strike rate at Ayr?
Oisin Murphy has a 31% strike rate at Ayr from 26 rides with an A/E of 1.54.
Which principal has the strongest soft-ground record?
Mirabeau has two wins from four starts on soft with two placings.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies