2:49 Perth
This Class 5 novices' limited handicap hurdle at Perth over an extended 2m on good ground features a field of nine where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 56 and 31. The race lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which positioning and timing will be key. Overall the numbers suggest a race where experience and course knowledge could prove decisive, with the top four principals holding the strongest claims on recent assessments.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runner in the field, the pace is expected to be no more than steady and the race is likely to develop into a tactical affair. Most of the field, including the top four principals, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, though Gonnino is the notable exception who races prominently. The key question will be whether those held up can find the necessary room and momentum in the straight on a track where being handy often pays in such races.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Elemental Eye KTB Selection56/100
Elemental Eye is a useful performer who has won over today's trip but has been out of form for some time. He finished a modest eighth here on his only previous visit to Perth. He has placed three times from eleven runs on good ground yet remains winless on it. Trainer Iain Jardine holds an 11% strike rate at the track while Brian Hughes posts 16%. The selection is held up, usually producing his effort late, and drops in class which should help his cause in a steadily-run affair.
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2Ribble River53/100
Ribble River is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip having looked stretched at shorter distances and tries first-time headgear in a bid to spark some improvement. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Perth from 36 runs although the jockey's strike-rate here is a more modest 9%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the new headgear and extra distance to bring about a revival on good ground where he has two wins from eleven runs.
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3Expert Analysis53/100
Expert Analysis is a useful performer who has been competitive on good ground without winning, placing twice from seven runs. He drops back in trip today having failed to score in five previous attempts at this distance. Trainer Jennie Candlish strikes at 12% here from 105 runs while jockey Sean Quinlan is operating at an 8% strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives in reasonable form with two placed efforts in his last three starts and should be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
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4Gonnino52/100
Gonnino is a useful performer who has placed without winning in three runs at Perth, finishing fifth, fourth and second. He looks suited by the return to this shorter trip having been placed over it before. Recent form is a bit patchy and he has failed to win in 13 starts overall. Trainer Gary Rutherford and jockey Callum Bewley both have modest strike rates at the track. Usually prominent, racing handily on or close to the lead, he is the one who could take advantage of the lack of an obvious leader in what is set to be a tactical contest.
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5Boston Queen51/100
Boston Queen is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. She has course connections in her favour yet the yard's modest 4% strike-rate from 119 runs at Perth tempers expectations while the 3 lb claimer is more positive with a solid 12% strike-rate here; the drop back to 2m asks a fresh question after her last run over 2m4½f.
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6Struth47/100
Struth is a fair handicapper who has been beaten 34 times without winning and looks no better than modest on recent evidence. He has run six times at Perth without placing and drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance; the yard's modest 7% strike-rate here and the jockey's 9% record add little encouragement.
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7Manhatane44/100
Manhatane is a fair performer who has shown only modest form in three starts this year, finishing no better than sixth on his latest two outings. He drops back in trip today for the first time while wearing first-time headgear, which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 111 runs at Perth but the jockey remains winless from six rides here.
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8Curious Mrs Fox43/100
Curious Mrs Fox is a fair mare who has been competitive without winning lately, finishing placed in two of her last three starts. She has shown some ability on good ground with two places from 13 runs but drops back in trip today having been placed once in five starts at this distance. The yard has a poor record at Perth while the jockey has an 11% strike rate here from 28 rides.
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9King Gold Boy31/100
King Gold Boy is a modest performer who has struggled since switching to handicaps and arrives with a poor recent record. He has tried this trip twice without success and drops back from 3m today while showing no win or place figures on good ground from three attempts. The yard's 1% strike-rate at Perth from 257 runs adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Elemental Eye is the KTB Selection. He brings useful form to the table having won over the trip, and the drop in class combined with the booking of Brian Hughes should enable him to capitalise on a steadily-run race where his held-up style can be effective. The selection has placed on good ground and the yard's record at Perth is respectable enough to give him the edge. Main dangers are Gonnino, who is proven over course and distance and could make the running in a race that lacks an obvious leader, and Expert Analysis, who is competitive on good ground and arrives in decent nick. Ribble River cannot be entirely ruled out if the first-time headgear and step up in trip bring about the required improvement.
KTB Selection Elemental Eye
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Elemental Eye | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Ribble River | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Expert Analysis | 11/10 | 7Bet |
| Gonnino | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Boston Queen | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Struth | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Manhatane | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Curious Mrs Fox | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| King Gold Boy | 150/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:49 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Elemental Eye the selection despite modest recent form?
He is a useful performer who has won over today's trip, drops in class, and is ridden by Brian Hughes who has a 16% strike rate at Perth.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The race is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most principals held up and Gonnino the one to race prominently.
Which horse has the strongest course record?
Gonnino has placed without winning in three runs at Perth, finishing fifth, fourth and second.
What is the significance of first-time headgear for Ribble River and Manhatane?
Both try first-time headgear in a bid to spark some improvement, with Ribble River also stepping up in trip.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Perth among those represented?
Lizzie Quinlan has a 14% strike rate at Perth from 36 runs.
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