2:40 Haydock
This Class 3 British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 7f 212y at Haydock on soft ground brings together a field of nine two-year-old fillies, most with limited racecourse exposure. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Miss Faithfull on 61, with the next three principals all in the 49-58 range, underlining how open the contest appears on paper. With no established leader in the pace shape, the race is expected to develop into a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing will be critical.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race where being handy should pay dividends. Woollahra is the most likely to race prominently, while the remainder are either held up or unproven in their run styles. The key question is which of these lightly raced fillies can produce the necessary improvement when the tempo lifts inside the final two furlongs on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Miss Faithfull KTB Selection61/100
Miss Faithfull shaped with fair promise when finishing fifth on debut over this trip at Newmarket. The application of first-time headgear is an interesting move for this lightly raced filly who has only that one run to judge her on. Charlie Fellowes brings a 17% strike rate at Haydock from 88 runs while Paddy Bradley has a strong 25% strike rate and A/E of 2.01 from his 12 rides at the track. She is unproven on soft ground and has no course form, yet the yard's 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.27 at Haydock add to the interest. Her run style is to be held up and produce her effort late, which should suit the anticipated steady pace. Overall she is taken to build on her debut effort.
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2Woollahra58/100
Woollahra displayed fair promise when finishing fourth on debut over 7f. This is only her second start so much remains unknown, though the yard's 20% strike rate at Haydock from five runs is a positive. She is unproven on soft ground and has no course form on record. Callum Rodriguez takes the ride with a 19% strike rate and A/E of 1.13 from 151 rides at Haydock. Her prominent run style, racing handily on or close to the lead, could be an advantage in a race lacking an obvious leader. She is capable of progressing from her debut and enters calculations.
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3Shabby53/100
Shabby makes her racecourse debut with no previous form to assess. The Michael Bell yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Haydock from a large sample of 365 runs. By Nathaniel, she has a 12% overall win rate attached to her sire from 7250 runners, though whether she is ready to go on soft ground first time will depend on pedigree and sales background. Callum Shepherd rides with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.32 from 87 rides at the track. With everything still to prove she remains something of an unknown quantity but the yard's local record commands respect.
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4Zirconic49/100
Zirconic has shown ordinary form across two starts, finishing fifth then fourth, and has not suggested she is anything better than fair at this stage. Hugo Palmer has a solid 17% strike rate from 241 runs at Haydock. She steps up in trip today which poses a fresh question and with no runs on soft ground her suitability for the conditions remains unknown from the small sample. Ashley Lewis takes the ride with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.7 from nine rides at the track. Her held-up run style should see her coming from off the pace in what is likely to be a steadily-run affair.
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5She's Got A Way49/100
She's Got A Way showed some promise when third on debut over 7f and now returns to the same trip while dropping in class. Her ability remains hard to pin down with any confidence from the small sample and she is unproven on soft ground with no course form.
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6My Girl Dee Mo49/100
My Girl Dee Mo showed some promise when third on debut here over this trip on soft ground. That run was on the same course and ground as today though her true level is still unclear from the small sample. She has course form having finished third once without winning or placing.
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7Perfect Gal47/100
Perfect Gal is lightly raced with just one run to her name and finished a respectable third on debut at this track. That leaves her with very little to go on and she steps up in class. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Haydock is offset by the jockey's solid 18% record at the track and she has one run on soft with no win or place.
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8Hotterthanjuly44/100
Hotterthanjuly is a newcomer from a yard with a solid 12% strike rate at Haydock from a large sample. The Richard Hannon stable knows the track well and Sean Levey is a regular rider for them. With no racecourse form the rest is guesswork based on pedigree and sales price.
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9Kaguyahime43/100
Kaguyahime showed promise when third on debut over today's trip and that effort carries some weight in a race lacking depth. Roger Varian has an 18% strike rate from 323 runs at Haydock. She is dropping in class, is held up in her run style and remains unproven on soft ground from only one run.
KTB verdict
Miss Faithfull is the KTB Selection. She showed fair pace on debut at Newmarket and the first-time headgear looks a positive move for a filly with just one run behind her. The Fellowes yard's record at Haydock adds further substance and her held-up style should be well suited to the steadily-run pace anticipated. The main dangers are Woollahra, who shaped with promise on debut and could benefit from a prominent position, and the debutant Shabby, whose yard has a good strike rate at the track. Kaguyahime's debut third also gives her a place in the mix in a race where several fillies have relatively little to go on.
KTB Selection Miss Faithfull
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 26 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Miss Faithfull | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Woollahra | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Shabby | 33/1 | Bet Victor |
| Zirconic | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| She's Got A Way | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| My Girl Dee Mo | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Perfect Gal | 11/1 | Bet Victor |
| Hotterthanjuly | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Kaguyahime | 10/11 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to race prominently?
Woollahra is the most likely to race prominently as her run style is to race handily, on or close to the lead.
How many of the runners have previous soft-ground form?
Only two runners have previous soft-ground form: My Girl Dee Mo, who finished third on debut here on soft, and Perfect Gal, who has one run on soft with no win or place.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Haydock among those represented?
Jack Morland has a 20% strike rate at Haydock from five runs, the highest among the trainers in this field.
Which jockey has the best Haydock record in this race?
Paddy Bradley has a 25% strike rate at Haydock with an A/E of 2.01 from 12 rides, the strongest jockey record here.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
Miss Faithfull has a KTB Fit Score of 61.
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