5:07 Bath
This Class 5 handicap division at Bath over 5f 161y on good to firm ground brings together a field of ten modest performers, several of whom have shown placed form at the track without winning. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but unspectacular contest, with Rumble Ruby heading the numbers on 68 while the remainder sit between 59 and 42. Several runners are dropping in class and the majority have proven effectiveness on good to firm, setting up a race where experience of the venue and the ability to handle a strong pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is likely to be strong and the early fractions could be testing on this sharp track. Silver Wraith and Kiss And Run are both inclined to race prominently and set a solid gallop, while the likes of Rumble Ruby, Control Room, The Thames Boatman, Distant Rumble, Pull The Rug, Legendsoftheland and Name The Day are all hold-up types. This sets up the key question of whether the leaders will fold late, allowing the patiently ridden horses to come through and dominate the finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rumble Ruby KTB Selection68/100
Rumble Ruby is a modest performer who has been busy this year and shown a fair level of consistency. She has already won on this ground and at today's trip, both of which count as positives, while the yard's record at Bath is respectable. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride and the trainer-jockey combination has produced a 1 from 12 record with an A/E of 1.00. The class drop is another plus although stall 10 looks far from ideal on a sharp track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be well suited if the strong pace materialises as expected.
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2Control Room59/100
Control Room is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Bath and looks suited by this slightly longer trip having already placed over it once. Consistent rather than progressive with six placed efforts from ten starts and no win on the board yet, she arrives with figures of 232442. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from a big sample of 311 runs while the 3lb claimer Seamus Cronin adds value on the figures with a 33% strike rate at the track from just 12 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, she is likely to be produced late in a race where the pace could collapse.
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3The Thames Boatman55/100
The Thames Boatman is a modest performer with a solid record here, finishing second on both previous visits to Bath. Consistent rather than progressive lately with form figures of 145220, he steps up in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past. Richard Hughes has a 13% strike-rate at the track from 159 runs and Finley Marsh is aboard with a 14% strike rate at Bath from 255 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he has been competitive on good to firm without winning and the drop in class could help him get closer to the target.
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4Silver Wraith55/100
Silver Wraith is a modest performer who has won two of three starts at Bath and steps back up to a trip at which he has scored twice from nine attempts. He has shown consistent competitiveness on good to firm ground without winning and arrives in reasonable form having mixed placings with lesser efforts over the past year. Emma Lavelle holds a solid 13 percent strike rate here from 39 runs while Charles Bishop also knows the track. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he is likely to set the tempo in what is expected to be a strong pace.
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5Distant Rumble54/100
Distant Rumble is a fair performer who has been placed on both previous starts over this course and trip. He has won on good to firm ground and at today's distance, though his recent form has been patchy with just one win from his last 12 starts. Roger Teal holds an 11% strike rate at Bath from 142 runs and Lewis Edmunds takes the ride. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the pace if the strong gallop materialises as the pace shape suggests.
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6Evie Ross52/100
Evie Ross is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without progressing. She drops back to her favoured trip having looked stretched over 7f last time and she has already shown she handles this ground. Clive Cox has a solid 18% strike rate at Bath while Rossa Ryan is up. Typically settles in midfield.
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7Kiss And Run49/100
Kiss And Run is a modest performer who has won once here from eight visits and also has a win to her name at today's trip. Recent form is patchy with a single victory in the last six runs but she has shown enough placed efforts on good to firm to suggest the ground is fine. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Bath from 27 runs offers little encouragement. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Pull The Rug48/100
Pull The Rug is a modest performer who has won once in nine starts at this trip but has struggled to build on it lately with a string of modest efforts. Has never placed from three runs on good to firm ground and makes his first visit to Bath today. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from a large sample. Usually held up.
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9Legendsoftheland46/100
Legendsoftheland is a limited performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from three starts at Bath. Recent form of 213132 shows consistency at this level and the horse has won three times over today's trip from ten attempts. Adrian Wintle has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from 278 runs while Joe Leavy takes the ride. Usually held up.
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10Name The Day42/100
Name The Day is a modest performer who has shown little since a winning debut on this ground last season. Dropping back from 7f to a trip where she has twice been well beaten is another negative, though the first-time headgear could sharpen her up. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Bath from a big sample. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Rumble Ruby is the KTB Selection. She has already won on this ground and at today's trip, possesses a fair level of consistency, and is dropping in class while the yard's record at Bath is respectable. Her hold-up style could prove ideal if the strong pace collapses late as the shape suggests. The main dangers are Control Room, who has been placed on both previous visits to Bath and is suited by the trip, and The Thames Boatman, who also boasts a solid course record with two seconds from two runs here. Silver Wraith's proven record at the venue and his front-running style add further interest while Distant Rumble cannot be entirely dismissed on his course-and-distance placings.
KTB Selection Rumble Ruby
This is the narrative read of the 5:07 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won two of its three starts at Bath?
Silver Wraith
How many placed efforts has Control Room recorded from ten starts?
Six
What is the trainer's strike rate at Bath for the yard of The Thames Boatman?
13% from 159 runs
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Name The Day
How many wins has Rumble Ruby recorded on good to firm ground?
One win from three runs
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