What is Oliver Carmichael's strike rate?

Oliver Carmichael has won 16 of 201 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Oliver Carmichael ride most for?

Eve Johnson Houghton, with 106 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (12.3%).

Is Oliver Carmichael in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Oliver Carmichael's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 201 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Oliver Carmichael

201 rides in the last 5 seasons · 104 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 4 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)

from 1 Jan 2022

16–201

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=201

39 (19%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=201 · 0.94 incl. margin

+24.00

£1 level stake

n=201 at SP · +11.9%

£177k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.10). Rides mostly for Eve Johnson Houghton — 53% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 201 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Eve Johnson Houghton: 12.3% from 106

The read

Eve Johnson Houghton supplies 53% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.3% vs 8%, A/E 1.52) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 8-14-day break (15.9%, n=44) and in Class 4 (13.3%, n=45).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.7%−1.3

n=104 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −7.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

4.8%−3.2

n=21 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −16.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

0%−8.0

n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

When favourite

40%

n=5 · A/E 1.90 · £1 +3.00

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.9%−0.1

n=191 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +27.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

0%−8.0

n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 8-14-day break 15.9% vs 8% · n=44

With C&D winners 13.6% vs 8% · n=44

In Class 4 13.3% vs 8% · n=45

With Eve Johnson Houghton 12.3% vs 8% · n=106

Over 1m – 1m1f 10.6% vs 8% · n=47

On Good going 5.9% vs 8% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 75 7 9.3% −3.00

Good to Firm 54 4 7.4% −7.50

Good 34 2 5.9% −6.50

Good to Soft 18 1 5.6% −14.00

Soft 15 2 13.3% +60.00

Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 23 2 8.7% −11.50

Wolverhampton (AW) 15 1 6.7% −9.50

Southwell (AW) 14 2 14.3% +17.00

Lingfield (AW) 13 2 15.4% +11.00

Brighton 13 3 23.1% +46.50

Yarmouth 11 1 9.1% −7.00

Bath 9 0 0% −9.00

Salisbury 9 1 11.1% +25.00

Newbury 8 0 0% −8.00

Leicester 8 0 0% −8.00

Chepstow 7 0 0% −7.00

Windsor 7 1 14.3% +34.00

Goodwood 7 1 14.3% −3.00

Ascot 6 0 0% −6.00

Newcastle (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 89 6 6.7% −31.00

Class 5 54 4 7.4% +4.00

Class 4 45 6 13.3% +64.00

Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 3 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 7 2 28.6% 1.23 +1.00

2nd–3rd fav 31 4 12.9% 0.78 −10.50

4th–6th fav 66 6 9.1% 1.15 +20.50

7th+ in betting 97 4 4.1% 1.60 +13.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Uncle Dick (GB) 17 3 4 16 Oct 25

Rotation (GB) 13 0 2 8 Oct 25

Silca Bay (GB) 11 3 4 25 Sep 26

Margorie (GB) 6 1 1 6 Jun 26

Fortunate (GB) 5 1 1 17 Sep 26

Jumby (IRE) 5 0 1 31 Jul 26

Francesco Baracca (GB) 5 1 2 8 May 26

Tilsworth Silver (GB) 5 0 0 4 Mar 26

Thornaby Pearl (GB) 4 1 2 31 Aug 26

Due To Henry (GB) 3 1 1 29 Oct 26

Silver Trumpet (GB) 3 0 0 7 Oct 26

Just Dreaming (GB) 3 0 1 16 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

670000137991200

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardEve Johnson Houghton

53% of all rides
12.3% SR · A/E 1.52

TrainerRWSR£1

Eve Johnson Houghton 106 13 12.3% +100.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→

Archived wins

£177k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 8 wins

Uncle Dick (GB) — Sapporo Japanese Premium Lager Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap Brighton · Aug 2025 · Class 4

£10,468

Uncle Dick (GB) — Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Brighton Mile Challenge Handicap Brighton · Aug 2024 · Class 4

£10,468

Silca Bay (GB) — Thelma Horne Memorial Apprentice Handicap Goodwood · Jun 2026 · Class 4

£8,191

Notable horses

Uncle Dick (GB) Silca Bay (GB) Margorie (GB) Francesco Baracca (GB) Fortunate (GB) Thornaby Pearl (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Havana Gold (IRE) 0% · 0–17

Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,060 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 117. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.

Toronado (IRE) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,879 runs since 2018 (417 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.6% from 197. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.4% from 143.

Cable Bay (IRE) 27.3% · 3–11

Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,725 runs since 2019 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 644. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.

Outstrip (GB) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,285 runs since 2019 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 634. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 264.

Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,921 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Oasis Dream (GB) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,026 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 201 · newest first

The latest 50 of 201 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 November 2023 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Bath Forever My Prince (GB)T: Michael Blake Bristol Motor Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 11/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Due To Henry (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Thank You To Our Loyal Annual Members Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 12 ran 4th 5/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Tilsworth Boe (GB)T: J. R. Jenkins Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 8th 150/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Amarachi (IRE)T: Joseph Parr Set Your Limits With Unibet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 2nd 5/1

26 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Court Alert (IRE)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 10/1

22 Oct 26 Newmarket Amarachi (IRE)T: Joseph Parr CopyBet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 11/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Ohara (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 12/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Priapos (IRE)T: Phillip Makin Northumbria Leisure For Pool Tables Selling StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 5 ran 2nd 15/2

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Pink Socks (IRE)T: Stephanie Cassidy Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 40/1

13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Pacific Prince (GB)T: James Bennett Download The Raceday Ready App Apprentice Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 40/1

08 Oct 26 Bath Forest Hills (IRE)T: Carroll Gray Your Elite Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 17f · Good · 12 ran UR 50/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Station Bar (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 8th 22/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Silver Trumpet (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 7th 9/2

05 Oct 26 Yarmouth Tilsworth Emma (GB)T: J. R. Jenkins Price Bailey LLP Norwich Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 200/1

05 Oct 26 Yarmouth Eightthreeone (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 1st 3/1F

03 Oct 26 Ascot Great Acclaim (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Betmgm Challenge Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 7f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 13th 20/1

01 Oct 26 Salisbury Due To Henry (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 1st 33/1

29 Sep 26 Bath Name The Day (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Clyde And Co Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 5.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 125/1

28 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Pink Socks (IRE)T: Stephanie Cassidy Cavani Style & Speed Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 150/1

25 Sep 26 Newmarket Silca Bay (GB)T: Eve Johnson Houghton Betway Bet £10 Get £40 Handicap StakesClass 3 · 9f · Good · 10 ran 5th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 28 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Oliver Carmichael's strike rate?: Oliver Carmichael has won 16 of 201 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Oliver Carmichael ride most for?: Eve Johnson Houghton, with 106 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (12.3%).
Is Oliver Carmichael in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 6 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Oliver Carmichael's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 201 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.