2:50 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap division at Redcar over 1m2f1y on good ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB Fit ratings suggest a fairly tight contest at the top of the weights. Hostility tops the KTB numbers on 58 with recent form that includes two wins and a third this season, while Lady Hornblower, Alessia Fernanda and Bay Dream Believer follow closely on 53, 50 and 48 respectively. The KTB assessments point to a race where course placings, good-ground proficiency and the ability to produce a late effort will be key in what looks a steadily-run affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and is rated with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy on the turn could prove advantageous. Almost every runner is described as held up, usually producing its effort late, so the field is likely to bunch early before the race develops into a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is which of these closers can best navigate the steady gallop and deliver their challenge at the right moment without getting caught wide or lacking the necessary toe.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hostility KTB Selection58/100
Hostility arrives with a KTB Fit rating of 58 and is the clear selection. Rated OR 68, the four-year-old has shown consistent ability this term with form figures of 215139 that include two wins and a third. David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.04 from 779 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination shows 9/62 (15%) with an A/E of 0.97. Conor Whiteley claims 5lb and the pair will look to overcome the horse's usual held-up run style, which is delivered with high confidence. The gelding has performed creditably on good ground with two wins from 11 starts and five places, and has been placed both times at this course without winning. The market read positions it with SP in a field of nine.
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2Lady Hornblower53/100
Lady Hornblower is rated with a KTB Fit of 53 and holds an official rating of 66. The three-year-old filly has form figures of 698371 that include a recent win, and she has shown she goes well on good ground with one win and two places from three starts. Jedd O'Keeffe's record with the jockey reads 0/12 with an A/E of 0.00, while the trainer has a 7% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.69. Connor Beasley has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.8 from 512 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence in the run-style assessment, she has already won here from one run at the course. The market read positions her with SP in a field of nine.
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3Alessia Fernanda50/100
Alessia Fernanda is next on KTB Fit of 50 and carries an OR of 67. The six-year-old has recent form of 672676 and has been competitive on good ground without winning, placing on three of twelve starts. Declan Carroll has a 9% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.93 from 346 runs, while claiming jockey Cian Horgan has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.46. The mare is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence in the run-style. She has no course form on record. The market read positions her with SP in a field of nine.
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4Bay Dream Believer48/100
Bay Dream Believer has a KTB Fit of 48 and is rated OR 63. The seven-year-old has form figures of 761533 and possesses a solid record on good ground with three wins from seventeen starts and seven places. Mark Walford and Jason Hart show 25/249 (10%) with an A/E of 0.90, though the trainer's record at Redcar is 5% with an A/E of 0.54. Jason Hart has a 14% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.06 from 524 rides. Usually held up with high confidence in the run-style, the gelding has been placed four times from five runs at Redcar without winning. The market read positions him with SP in a field of nine.
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5Recobella47/100
Recobella has a KTB Fit of 47 and is rated OR 60. The five-year-old has form of 251215 and a strong record on good ground with three wins from six starts and four places. Philip Kirby and Kevin Stott show 22/180 (12%) with an A/E of 0.98, and both have solid records at Redcar. Usually held up with high confidence in the run-style, she was seventh on her only previous run at the course.
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6Eagles Dream41/100
Eagles Dream is rated with a KTB Fit of 41 and carries an OR of 52. The four-year-old has recent form of -88050 and is stepping up in class while wearing first-time headgear. Tristan Davidson has a 25% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.25, but the jockey has yet to score at the track. Usually held up with high confidence in the run-style, the horse has been placed once from seven starts on good ground and has no course form on record.
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7Tommo's Ginjaninja40/100
Tommo's Ginjaninja has a KTB Fit of 40 and is rated OR 61. The three-year-old has form of 230940 and is usually held up with high confidence in the run-style. The Easterby team and Joanna Mason show 10% strike rate overall, though the trainer is on 5% at Redcar with an A/E of 0.54. The colt has had only one run on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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8Kitsune Power39/100
Kitsune Power is rated with a KTB Fit of 39 and carries an OR of 55. The seven-year-old has form of 134006 and two wins from sixteen starts on good ground with six places. Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.78 from a large sample, while the jockey is on 4%. Usually held up with high confidence in the run-style, he has been placed once from five runs at the course.
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9Kartini37/100
Kartini has a KTB Fit of 37 and is rated OR 58. The four-year-old has recent form of -60654 and is stepping up in class. Simon Whitaker has a modest 2% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.29, though Paul Mulrennan has a 9% strike rate at the track. Usually held up with high confidence in the run-style, she has shown no win or place from three runs on good ground and has been unplaced both times at Redcar.
KTB verdict
Hostility is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 58 with the most appealing blend of recent winning form, good-ground ability and placed efforts at this course. The selection can be expected to come from off the pace in a steadily-run race where late efforts are likely to be decisive. Main dangers are Lady Hornblower, who has already won here and handles good ground well, and the consistent course performer Bay Dream Believer, while Alessia Fernanda cannot be entirely ruled out if the race falls right.
KTB Selection Hostility
This is the narrative read of the 2:50 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Bay Dream Believer has the strongest course record among the principals, having been placed four times from five runs at Redcar.
How many of the field are rated as usually held up with high confidence in run-style?
Six of the field are rated as usually held up with high confidence in run-style: Hostility, Alessia Fernanda, Bay Dream Believer, Recobella, Eagles Dream, Tommo's Ginjaninja, Kitsune Power and Kartini.
Which horse is the only one with a previous win at Redcar?
Lady Hornblower is the only one with a previous win at Redcar, having won from one run at the course.
Who holds the best trainer strike rate at Redcar in this field?
Tristan Davidson holds the best trainer strike rate at Redcar in this field on 25% with an A/E of 1.25 from 16 runs.
Which two horses are stepping up in class?
Eagles Dream and Kartini are both stepping up in class.
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