Amie Waugh
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 170 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.82). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 11% (64 rides). Rides mostly for Jim Goldie — 52% of rides in the window.
It is weakest at Redcar (0% over 34 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 10.9% (n=64, Fair A/E 1.00), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.8% (n=113, Fair A/E 0.43). Rides in big fields of 14 or more are the standout value angle: 6.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.61 and +169.00 to a £1 stake over 109 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Jim Goldie supplies 52% of the rides and edges the rider's average (7.6% vs 5.4%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Class 2 (9.5%, n=74). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 59 rides, 5.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.22 across 157 rides (1.3% strike, −144.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Sep.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,214 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,214 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 August 2007 to 30 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Amie Waugh's strike rate?
- Amie Waugh has won 46 of 858 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Amie Waugh do best at?
- Hamilton by strike rate: 10 wins from 113 rides (8.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Amie Waugh ride most for?
- Jim Goldie, with 450 rides since 2022 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (7.6%).
- Is Amie Waugh in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Amie Waugh's Fair A/E?
- 0.82, from 850 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.