2:45 Killarney
The 2:45 at Killarney is a 2m1f0y Rated Novice Hurdle on good ground that features a compact but competitive field of seven. KTB's Fit Scores separate the principals only narrowly at the top, with Cocofred heading the numbers on 63, closely followed by No Mon No Fun on 61 and Lips Freedom on 60. The race is notable for an uncontested pace set-up that could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little pressure. Rosenborg is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and should be allowed an easy lead. The remaining six runners are all held-up types who will be looking to close late, which poses the key question of whether any of them can bridge the gap to an uncontested leader on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cocofred KTB Selection63/100
Cocofred is a smart performer who arrives in good order after a clear-cut win at this track last month. He steps up in trip today for Henry de Bromhead, whose yard operates at a 17% strike rate at Killarney with an A/E of 1.01 from 423 runs. Darragh O'Keeffe takes the ride and has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1 from 195 rides. The horse has a record of one win from two starts on good ground and holds an official rating of 117. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the KTB Selection in a race where the uncontested lead could make life difficult for closers.
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2No Mon No Fun61/100
No Mon No Fun is a useful performer who showed his best when winning over this trip last time. He drops back in distance today after his most recent run over further and has a solid record on good ground with one win from three starts and two places. Darren Collins has a 33% strike rate at Killarney from a small sample of three runs with an A/E of 2.86. Carl Millar claims 5lb and has an 8% strike rate at the track from 13 rides with an A/E of 0.81. Rated 104, he is another who usually races held up.
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3Lips Freedom60/100
Lips Freedom is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and showed strong form when winning here on his only previous visit to Killarney. He acts on good ground with one win from four starts and two places but has been below best on his last two outings. Andrew Kinirons has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.67 from 19 runs, while Donagh Meyler has a 5% strike rate from 94 rides with an A/E of 0.47. Rated 118 and usually held up with high confidence, he brings course-winning form to the table.
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4Firebrand53/100
Firebrand is a smart performer who arrives in solid nick after a recent win and has already scored over today's trip. He has been competitive on good ground without winning on it, recording one place from four starts. John J Nallen has a modest 5% strike rate at Killarney from 21 runs with an A/E of 0.39, and Alan O'Sullivan claims 5lb with a 3% strike rate from 33 rides and an A/E of 0.38. Rated 115, he is another who usually races held up with high confidence.
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5Rosenborg52/100
Rosenborg is a smart performer who has already won over this trip and shown his ability on good ground with a win from three starts. He steps up in distance today from his latest 2m run which adds a fresh question, while the trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 243 runs at Killarney and the jockey has a 0% strike rate from four rides.
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6Celtic Alliance47/100
Celtic Alliance has shown ability in two starts, winning on debut before finishing third next time. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried, which asks a fresh question. Gordon Elliott has a 13% strike rate at Killarney from 366 runs and Jack Kennedy operates at 20% from 133 rides here.
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7Belladaball42/100
Belladaball has shown mixed form this year with a win and a fall but also some weaker efforts, and she now drops back in trip having already won over this distance. The going looks suitable with a win from two starts on similar ground. Gavin Cromwell has a 7% strike rate from 219 runs at Killarney while Keith Donoghue has a 13% strike rate from 96 rides here.
KTB verdict
Cocofred stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer in good order after a clear-cut win at this track last month, he steps up in trip for a yard and jockey combination that both perform well at Killarney. The good ground is also in his favour. He will need to overcome being held up in a race with a lone leader likely to get an easy time out front. The main dangers are No Mon No Fun, who showed his best when winning over this trip last time, and Lips Freedom, who has already won over the course and distance.
KTB Selection Cocofred
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Killarney results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to set the uncontested lead?
Rosenborg is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the field usually race held up?
Six of the seven runners are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horse has course-winning form at Killarney?
Lips Freedom has won here on his only previous visit to Killarney.
What is the best trainer strike rate at Killarney among the principals?
Darren Collins has a 33% strike rate at Killarney from three runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Killarney in the field?
Jack Kennedy has a 20% strike rate at Killarney from 133 rides.
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