8:15 Kempton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap at Kempton over 1m3f219y on standard to slow ground brings together a field of ten modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Chesneys Charm heading the numbers on 58, followed closely by Lucy The Wire on 56, Golden Circet and Super Hit both on 55, and Letmebetheboss on 51. Overall the race lacks depth and looks tactical, with every runner holding up and the pace shape pointing to a steadily-run affair where positioning could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium that anyone will take the initiative. With every horse in the field usually held up and producing its effort late, the early fractions are likely to be modest and the race should develop into a steadily-run, tactical contest. Being handy on the turn and timing the run from off the pace will be important, and the key question is which of these late closers can quicken most effectively off a slow gallop in what is essentially a sprint for the line from the home turn.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Chesneys Charm KTB Selection58/100
Chesneys Charm is a modest performer who has been largely consistent in recent months without winning. His only modest form on this track and on today's surface is noted, while stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 8% strike-rate at Kempton from 182 runs adds little confidence, though Oisin Orr's 25% strike rate at the track from eight rides offers a positive angle. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be delivered from off the pace in a race where being handy pays. He carries an official rating of 64 having shown recent form of 607373.
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2Lucy The Wire56/100
Lucy The Wire is a modest performer who has shown some consistency but lacks a win in 12 starts. She finished fourth on her only previous visit to Kempton and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance. Trainer James Owen has a solid 16% strike rate here from 116 runs while Kieren Fox is aboard. Dropping in class from a mark of 65, she is another who is usually held up and produces its effort late. Her recent form reads 2457 and she remains unproven on standard to slow ground.
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3Golden Circet55/100
Golden Circet is a modest performer who has been placed twice from five runs at Kempton without winning. He has shown some competitiveness on standard to slow ground and has been placed twice at today's trip, though he steps up in distance today from 1m3f. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track from 47 runs adds a note of caution, as does the 2/38 trainer and jockey record with an A/E of 0.83. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 3, his recent form is 445688 and he drops in class off an official rating of 65.
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4Super Hit55/100
Super Hit is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track and placed three times from seven runs without winning. He steps up to 1m4f for the first time today after a string of ordinary efforts on the AW. Trainer James Owen has a solid 16% strike rate here from 116 runs, though the trainer and jockey record stands at 2/13 with an A/E of 0.53. Usually held up and producing its effort late from a wide draw of 8, he has won once from eight runs on standard to slow ground and his recent form reads 137552.
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5Letmebetheboss51/100
Letmebetheboss is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at Kempton. He has been out of form on his last two starts and steps up in trip today having only managed placed efforts at this distance without winning. Trainer Tony Carroll has an 8% strike rate from 1917 runs at the track while jockey Myla Coppins is unproven here with a 0% strike rate from six rides. Dropping in class off an official rating of 64, he is usually held up and produces its effort late from the widest draw. His recent form is 104-79 and he has won once from six runs on standard to slow ground.
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6Currumbin49/100
Currumbin is a modest performer who has been competitive on his last three starts and is placed three times from four runs at this trip. He has run well here before finishing second on his latest visit to Kempton and has shown he can handle standard to slow ground, though the yard has a poor 0% strike rate at the track from 28 runs. Usually held up, his recent form is 046222 and he remains winless after 31 starts.
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7Mrembo45/100
Mrembo is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year and has never won a handicap. He has placed twice at today's trip but showed little spark in two runs here over shorter and has failed to place on either start on this type of ground. The Portman yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at Kempton from 649 runs while Jamin is 0-11 at the track. Usually held up, his recent form is 414542.
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8Lost In Wonder44/100
Lost In Wonder is a limited performer who has shown little since finishing second on handicap debut last summer. Two modest efforts this year offer no encouragement and the yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 42 runs adds little confidence. The trip looks a fair question on what has been seen so far. Usually held up, he drops in class with recent form of 257-85 and remains unproven on standard to slow ground.
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9Deferred Interest37/100
Deferred Interest is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and remains winless after 11 starts. Dropping back from 1m6f to 1m4f asks a fresh question while the single run here produced a modest fourth. Mulholland's 10% strike rate from 220 rides at the track offers some encouragement though the horse's own form remains modest. Usually held up, his recent form is 86-440.
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10Dodging The Bullet37/100
Dodging The Bullet is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 12 starts and finished a remote fourth when tried here over 2m in December. Dropping back from 2m1f to an untested 1m4f asks a fresh question while the yard has failed to land a winner from 16 runs at Kempton. Course and ground experience is minimal and offers no encouragement. Usually held up, his recent form is -57742.
KTB verdict
Chesneys Charm is the KTB Selection. He heads the Fit Scores in a race full of modest, late-running types and his recent consistency gives him a solid platform despite the step up in trip and modest course record. The steadily-run pace should suit his held-up style if he can be delivered at the right moment from stall one. Main dangers are Lucy The Wire, who drops in class with solid yard form, and Golden Circet, who knows the track and has placed form on the surface, while Super Hit and Letmebetheboss add further depth to what looks a closely-matched event.
KTB Selection Chesneys Charm
This is the narrative read of the 8:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour being handy?
The race lacks a leader so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses have previous placed form at Kempton?
Golden Circet has been placed twice from five runs here, Super Hit has been placed three times from seven runs, Currumbin finished second on his latest visit, and Chesneys Charm, Lucy The Wire, Letmebetheboss, Mrembo, Deferred Interest and Dodging The Bullet have all run here without winning.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Kempton AW?
James Owen has a 16% strike rate at Kempton from 116 runs, which applies to both Lucy The Wire and Super Hit.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Super Hit steps up to 1m4f for the first time today.
How many of these runners are dropping in class?
Lucy The Wire, Golden Circet, Letmebetheboss, Lost In Wonder and Dodging The Bullet are all dropping in class.
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