4:15 Perth
This Class 4 Racingtv Handicap Steeple Chase (Div II) over 2m4f20y at Perth on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine where recent winners and course specialists stand out. The KTB Fit scores highlight one clear top pick on 67 while the rest cluster between 53 and 42, suggesting a race with a standout contender but plenty of depth among the mid-range runners. Conditions should suit several with good to soft form on their records, and the overall picture points to a contest where course knowledge and trip suitability will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one horse is likely to get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Kado Sacree is the one who tends to make the running or race prominently and should therefore take up that role here, setting a tempo that allows him to dictate. The remainder of the field are almost all held-up types who will be produced late, raising the key question of whether any of them can close the gap effectively against an uncontested front-runner on this track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kado Sacree KTB Selection67/100
Kado Sacree arrives in excellent order having won both starts since joining Olly Murphy, one of which was a course success here over this very trip. He goes well on good to soft ground with two wins from four runs and boasts a strong course record of one win from one start. The trainer holds a 30% strike rate at Perth from 210 runs with an A/E of 1.19 while Sean Bowen posts a 31% strike rate at the track from 354 rides with an A/E of 1.08. As a front-runner he is ideally placed to take advantage of the expected lone-leader shape and looks to have the best blend of ability, form and track knowledge.
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2Cossack Chach53/100
Cossack Chach possesses high-class ability on his best days yet remains lightly raced and has shown inconsistency. He steps up in trip today having shown little on his only previous attempt at this distance, and his sole run on good to soft ground also failed to produce a win or place. The yard’s modest 7% strike rate at Perth from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.57 is matched by Derek Fox’s 8% record here from 392 rides with an A/E of 0.74. A held-up runner, he will need to produce a strong late effort if the uncontested lead materialises in front.
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3Follow Charlie53/100
Follow Charlie is a smart performer with a solid record at Perth, having won three of ten starts here. His recent form has been patchy but includes two wins in the last five runs, and the step back up to this trip looks a positive given five wins from seventeen attempts at the distance. He usually races held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate at the track, the yard from 387 runs with an A/E of 0.67 and Ryan Mania from 270 rides with an A/E of 0.6, while he has one win from six on good to soft with two placed efforts.
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4Bois Guillbert52/100
Bois Guillbert is a smart performer who has shown up well at this track on his last three visits, finishing placed on one of them. He has winning form on good to soft with three wins from ten runs and three placed efforts, and he has been placed at today’s trip. Now 0-19 since his last success, he will be held up and produced late with high confidence in that style. Lucinda Russell’s modest 7% strike rate here from 126 runs with an A/E of 0.57 is offset by Jack Power’s solid 18% record at Perth from 28 rides with an A/E of 1.17.
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5Berkenshtaaap51/100
Berkenshtaaap won on his only previous start at Perth and has also won at today’s trip, though he steps up in class now. The yard’s strong 30% strike rate at the track from 210 runs with an A/E of 1.19 is a plus, yet Kevin Brogan’s modest 4% record here from 25 rides with an A/E of 0.25 is a negative and the small sample on good to soft leaves the ground an unknown; he will be held up.
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6Ned Tanner49/100
Ned Tanner has run creditably over this course in the past, finishing third on his most recent visit, and he drops back from three miles having already won twice at today’s trip. His placed effort on good to soft shows he handles the ground, though he has no wins from seven runs on it. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates here from large samples and he will be held up with high confidence.
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7Netywell48/100
Netywell has shown enough in recent runs to remain competitive at this level yet his course record is modest with a pulled-up and a fourth from two starts here. The trainer and jockey both operate at a below-par strike rate around Perth and he steps up in trip today for the first time; a nine-year-old who has only placed once on good to soft from eight attempts, he will race held up.
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8Garde des Champs46/100
Garde des Champs has won twice at Perth from 21 starts and is well suited by good to soft ground having placed four times from ten attempts. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m1f and while he has placed five times from 17 starts at this distance he is yet to win over it; dropping in class, the trainer’s modest 7% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey’s solid 13% record here and he will be held up.
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9Rock Dj42/100
Rock Dj has shown consistent placed form at this trip and steps up in class. Course connections are a positive with the trainer holding a solid 20% strike rate here from 20 runs, yet the jockey’s record at the track is weaker at 5% from 118 rides and the small sample on good to soft leaves the ground an unknown; he will race held up.
KTB verdict
Kado Sacree stands out as the KTB Selection. He has won both starts since joining Olly Murphy, one of them a course success over this trip on good to soft, and his front-running style perfectly matches the expected uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to overcome. The strong trainer and jockey figures at Perth further strengthen his claims. His main dangers are Follow Charlie, who has a fine record here and looks suited by the return to this distance, and Bois Guillbert, who has shown up well at the track on recent visits and has solid good to soft form. Cossack Chach cannot be entirely dismissed on his best days but has questions to answer on trip and ground.
KTB Selection Kado Sacree
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Kado Sacree, who tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that style.
How many wins has Follow Charlie recorded at Perth?
Three wins from ten starts at the track.
What is Olly Murphy’s strike rate at Perth?
30% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.19 from 210 runs.
Which horse has the highest number of placed efforts on good to soft ground in the field?
Garde des Champs with four placed efforts from ten runs on good to soft.
Has any horse in the field won over this trip at Perth before?
Kado Sacree has a course success here over this trip.
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