12:51 Ffos Las
This Class 4 mares' novices' hurdle at Ffos Las over 2m4f on good to soft ground brings together a field of eight lightly-raced or modestly-performed contenders, most of whom have very limited public form and several with questions to answer about the longer trip. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the selection Crescendo Lady on 58, with Fairy Park and Vrheligonne both on 55, underlining how open the race looks on paper. Trainer strike rates at the track vary markedly, from Ben Pauling's strong 26% to others operating at or below their general level.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape and high confidence in the forecast, the race is expected to be contested up front by Vrheligonne, who tends to make the running, and Upton Fern and Fireball Frenzy who race prominently. Several handy types are likely to apply pressure, while Crescendo Lady and Lara K are typically held up to produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the early gallop will prove a fair test for those stepping up in trip for the first time or whether it will expose limitations in stamina or ability among this novice bunch.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Crescendo Lady KTB Selection58/100
Crescendo Lady arrives with just a single run behind her and no official rating, so there is very limited public form on which to base judgement. She steps up to 2m4f today, which poses a fresh question, though the family record through full sister Libor Lad, who won twice from 20 starts, and one winner from the dam's four foals to race, provides a degree of encouragement. Trainer Laura Horsfall holds a 25% strike rate at Ffos Las from 12 runs, while Kevin Brogan operates at 13% from 40 rides at the track, both figures in line with their records elsewhere. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be ridden with patience in what is anticipated to be a genuinely-run race. As the KTB selection she is taken to put her limited experience to good use.
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2Fairy Park55/100
Fairy Park showed ability by winning a bumper on debut before finishing third when stepped up to a maiden hurdle, leaving her with only two career starts and therefore still lightly raced. She now moves up to 2m4f having last run over 2m1f, so the trip is an unknown that must be taken on trust, while she drops in class for this assignment. A full sister to modest winner Misteroddsocks from a family with limited success, her pedigree offers only cautious encouragement. Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 19% strike rate at Ffos Las from 27 runs and Brendan Powell is on 11% from 131 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, she is one of the more interesting lightly-raced types but must be treated with appropriate caution given the small sample.
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3Vrheligonne55/100
Vrheligonne has built a consistent profile with three seconds from as many bumper starts, suggesting she possesses some ability as she now makes the transition to hurdles. The step up to 2m4f for the first time poses a fresh question, and with no runs on good to soft the going suitability is also unknown from such a small sample. Trainer Ben Pauling boasts a 26% strike rate at Ffos Las from 95 runs, notably above his 15% elsewhere, while Ben Jones rides at a 17% rate from 215 rides at the venue, matching his overall figure. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she is likely to set the tempo or sit prominently in what is forecast to be a genuinely-run contest. She rates as one of the main dangers on her hurdling debut.
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4Upton Fern48/100
Upton Fern has shown little in three starts to date, producing a string of modest efforts that leave her ability open to question. She steps up to 2m4f today, which asks a fresh question, while the small sample also means both the going and her overall level remain hard to gauge with any confidence. A half-sister to Doc Penfro, who won once from nine starts, she comes from a dam who has produced two winners from three other runners. Trainer Debra Hamer has a 10% strike rate at Ffos Las from 223 runs, in line with her record elsewhere, and Robert Dunne matches that pattern with an 8% record at the track from 155 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she will be prominent early but has plenty to find on form.
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5Funny Hunny43/100
Funny Hunny is lightly raced with just one run in the last year and carries a modest recent form line of 32/4. The trip is a fresh question today after her last run over 2m, while the dam has produced only one other runner which did not win; trainer Dan Skelton has a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las from 112 runs in line with his record elsewhere but jockey Tristan Durrell is 0 from 10 at the track.
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6Lara K43/100
Lara K has shown very little in three starts so far with form figures of 767 and no official rating yet. The step up to 2m4f is an unknown that must be taken on trust; a half-sister to useful winner Bobby K from a dam who has had two winners from two other runners, she represents a yard with an 11% strike rate at Ffos Las while Conor Ring has a 6% record here.
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7Handfulofpromises41/100
Handfulofpromises has shown placed form on both starts so far yet remains lightly raced with only one run in the last year and now steps up in class. The yard records a 5% strike rate at Ffos Las from 87 runs, in line with their 7% elsewhere, while jockey Sean Houlihan has a 6% record from 96 rides here; stepping up to 2m4f is a fresh question and the dam has produced no winners from two other runners so this remains one to treat with real caution.
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8Fireball Frenzy40/100
Fireball Frenzy has shown ability in two starts, winning on debut before pulling up next time, and now drops back to 2m4f where he has already been placed once. The half-sister to prolific winner Cyclop suggests some stamina in the family; trainer Stuart Edmunds is 0% from 7 at Ffos Las while jockey Charlie Hammond is 6% from 48 rides here.
KTB verdict
Crescendo Lady is the KTB selection in a race where most runners bring limited evidence to the table. Her lightly-raced profile, combined with the encouragement from the family through full sister Libor Lad and the trainer's solid 25% strike rate at Ffos Las, give her scope to improve as she steps up in trip. She is expected to be ridden with patience from the rear in a race that should be run at a genuine gallop. The main dangers are Vrheligonne, who brings consistent bumper form and the trainer's strong local record while likely to set the pace, and Fairy Park, who showed promise in her two starts and drops in class. Upton Fern and the remainder of the field look held on what they have shown so far.
KTB Selection Crescendo Lady
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 22 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Crescendo Lady | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| Fairy Park | 4/7 | William Hill |
| Vrheligonne | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Upton Fern | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Funny Hunny | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Lara K | 150/1 | Bet365 |
| Handfulofpromises | 25/1 | William Hill |
| Fireball Frenzy | 13/2 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 12:51 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its hurdling debut after three placed bumper efforts?
Vrheligonne, who has form figures of 222- and is a front-runner likely to set or share the pace.
How many career starts does the selection Crescendo Lady have?
Just one run, with recent form figures of 5- and no official rating yet.
Which runner is dropping in class and has won a bumper on debut?
Fairy Park, whose form is 1/23- and who typically settles in midfield.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ffos Las for the yard of Vrheligonne?
Ben Pauling has a 26% strike rate at Ffos Las from 95 runs, above his 15% elsewhere.
Which horse has shown placed form on both starts but is stepping up in class?
Handfulofpromises, whose form is 22/ and who is lightly raced with only one run in the last year.
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