Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.19).
Deterministic profile computed from 188 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 10.5%
The read
It is weakest at Ffos Las (2.3% over 44 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.9% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.40). The yard also reads well in Chase races (20.7%, n=58) and off a 15-30-day break (19.2%, n=52). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 3.1% over 32 runners, 7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Tobefair (GB) — 9 wins from 30 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.9%−8.2
n=52 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −46.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+1.0
n=9 · A/E 2.14 · £1 −0.50
Debutants · first career start
10%−0.1
n=10 · A/E 2.74 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−10.1
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%+1.0
n=9 · A/E 2.63 · £1 +3.00
When favourite
15.4%
n=13 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −7.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.5%+0.4
n=38 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −22.80
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races20.7% vs 10.1% · n=58
Off a 15-30-day break19.2% vs 10.1% · n=52
Beyond 3m20% vs 10.1% · n=30
At Ffos Las2.3% vs 10.1% · n=44
Over 1m5f – 2m3.9% vs 10.1% · n=51
Off a 61-180-day break3.1% vs 10.1% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle11565.2%−59.25
Chase581220.7%+25.25
NH Flat1516.7%−8.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1011312.9%−8.95
Good to Soft46510.9%+3.75
Soft2200%−22.00
Heavy1000%−10.00
Good to Firm9111.1%−4.80
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ffos Las4412.3%−35.50
Worcester33412.1%+7.50
Newton Abbot26830.8%+6.05
Uttoxeter15320%+19.00
Ludlow1417.1%−9.80
Chepstow9111.1%+14.00
Taunton800%−8.00
Hereford800%−8.00
Stratford700%−7.00
Plumpton400%−4.00
Bangor-on-Dee300%−3.00
Exeter300%−3.00
Market Rasen200%−2.00
Fontwell200%−2.00
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 51101110%−15.95
Class 45835.2%−39.50
Class 312325%+0.70
Class 28225%+12.75
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite16318.8%0.73−4.70
2nd–3rd fav35925.7%1.54+6.20
4th–6th fav5647.1%1.06−14.50
7th+ in betting8133.7%1.34−29.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m6868.8%−12.55
1m5f – 2m5123.9%−34.00
2m1f – 2m4f39512.8%+9.75
Over 3m30620%−5.20
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223313%−24.50
202349816.3%+7.25
20245758.8%−17.70
20253239.4%−10.80
202617211.8%+3.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1391812.9%+0.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners5846.9%−28.70
5-7 runners53917%+12.95
11-13 runners4748.5%−23.00
14-16 runners2000%−20.00
17+ runners5120%+18.00
2-4 runners5120%−1.25
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 25 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alison Thorpe (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Barry John Murphy (3); 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0017041526914850
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Hold Your Fort (IRE) — Sodexo Live! Veterans' Handicap Chase Ascot · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£18,211
Tobefair (GB) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Oct 2019 · Class 2
£15,485
Tobefair (GB) — Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle Newbury · Feb 2017 · Class 2
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,180 runs since 2008 (291 horses).
Brian Boru (GB)15.4% · 2–13
Progeny have won 11% of 4,122 runs since 2008 (285 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,071 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,071 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Debra Hamer's strike rate?
Debra Hamer has won 19 of 188 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Debra Hamer do best at?
Worcester by strike rate: 4 wins from 33 runners (12.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Debra Hamer in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Debra Hamer's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 187 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Debra Hamer·SR 10.1%·A/E 1.19
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy