12:48 Hereford
This Class 5 hands-and-heels handicap hurdle at Hereford over 2m3f147y on good-to-firm ground brings together a field of 12 in which the KTB numbers identify a handful of useful performers clustered around the 100-104 mark. Prairie Diamond heads the Fit ratings on 68 and is the clear selection, while Lunar Orbit, Avada Kedavra, God of Fire and Raffles Nobu complete the principals, all rated in the mid-50s. The race features several horses dropping in class and a few making their first appearance at the track, with trip and ground questions scattered across the card.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, supplied by two or more habitual front-runners including Prairie Diamond and Charles Morin. Lunar Orbit, Avada Kedavra, God of Fire and Raffles Nobu are all prominent racers who will be on or close to that pace, while the hold-up horses such as Estate Planning and Inca may benefit if the speed collapses late. The key question is whether the front-runners can sustain their effort or whether the race will fall apart, handing the advantage to those racing off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Prairie Diamond KTB Selection68/100
Prairie Diamond is a useful performer who has already won here from two starts and brings solid recent form with two placed efforts after a break. He steps up in trip today having won twice from four starts at this distance, though he is unproven on good to firm ground. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate at Hereford from 139 runs, in line with his record elsewhere. As a front-runner he is sure to be prominent from the outset in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. He drops in class which should suit, and his course record of one win from two starts adds to his appeal. The selection arrives with everything in his favour bar the ground.
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2Lunar Orbit64/100
Lunar Orbit is a useful performer on official ratings who showed that level again when second on his most recent start. He has placed once from one run on good to firm and is in line with the yard's 25% strike rate at Hereford from 146 runs. The trip remains a question as he has tried it once without success. Prominent in his running style, he will be handily placed in a race that looks likely to be strongly run. The 4-year-old carries a 3lb claim and teams up with a jockey who boasts a 100% strike rate at the track from a small sample. His official rating of 104 matches the selection and keeps him firmly in the mix.
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3Avada Kedavra63/100
Avada Kedavra is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after two wins in his last four starts and holds an official rating of 103. He is 1 from 1 on good to firm but drops back in trip to 2m3f today having last run over 2m7f, so the distance is an unknown. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Hereford from 98 runs, in line with his overall record, while this is the horse's first run at the track. Usually prominent, he will be close to what is expected to be a strong pace. A 3lb claimer takes the ride and the drop in class looks a positive. Ground should be no issue given his record on good to firm.
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4God of Fire56/100
God of Fire is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placings from his last five starts. He has run just once at Hereford when finishing a respectable fourth and handles good to firm ground with a win and three places from five attempts. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of this six-year-old. His prominent run-style means he will be towards the front end in a strongly-run affair. The yard's 12% strike rate at the track from 34 runs is respectable, and he drops in class which could help. A 3lb claim is also in his favour.
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5Raffles Nobu56/100
Raffles Nobu is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in four of his last six starts from an official rating of 89. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous attempt at this distance, though he has won once from two runs on good to firm. The trainer holds a 27% strike rate at Hereford from 11 runs while this is the horse's first appearance at the track. Prominent in his racing style, he will be on or near the pace in what is set to be a strongly-run race. His consistency keeps him in the conversation even if the trip poses a question.
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6Miss Kassiopi56/100
Miss Kassiopi is a useful performer who has won here from two runs and arrives in decent form with a win and two places from her last four starts. The step up in trip looks a fair question as she has already won over this distance. Trainer Max Young has a 0% strike rate from 25 runs at Hereford, in line with his 3% at other courses, while the mare is 0-1 on good to firm ground.
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7King of The Bronx45/100
King of The Bronx is a useful performer on his best days but arrives in modest recent form after two ordinary efforts this year. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Hereford while the horse steps up in trip for the first time and has no experience of good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied on his debut at the track.
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8Chillhi42/100
Chillhi is a fair performer who has shown little spark in recent starts with a string of pulled-up efforts mixed in. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, and possesses a solid record on good to firm ground. Trainer has only four runs at Hereford which is too small a sample to judge.
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9Charles Morin40/100
Charles Morin is a fair performer who has shown some competitiveness on good to firm ground with a placed effort from four starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has only four runs at Hereford which is too small a sample to judge.
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10Lord Cauvelliere40/100
Lord Cauvelliere is a fair handicapper who has shown little spark this year, finishing no better than sixth in his last four completed starts. He has already been tried over today's trip without success and showed nothing when seventh on his only previous run here. The trainer's 6% strike rate at Hereford is in line with her record elsewhere.
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11Estate Planning37/100
Estate Planning is a fair performer who has been consistent enough through 17 runs without winning. The trainer's 4% strike rate at Hereford sits below their 8% at other tracks while the jockey has no recorded rides here. No experience on good to firm ground and a first try at this longer trip add unknowns.
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12Inca35/100
Inca is a fair performer who showed his best this year when winning over this trip last time out. He has no experience on good to firm ground and could not make an impact when tried here once before. The trainer's 5% strike rate at Hereford is in line with her record elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Prairie Diamond is the KTB Selection. He has already won at the track, brings solid placed form, drops in class and boasts a course record of one win from two starts. His front-running style should see him ideally placed in a race that is set to be strongly run, with the late collapse of the pace potentially playing to those who can stay on. The main dangers are Lunar Orbit, who showed his form with a recent second and has a strong trainer-jockey combination at the venue, and Avada Kedavra, who is 1-1 on the ground and arrives in decent nick. God of Fire and Raffles Nobu are next in the pecking order, though both face questions over the trip.
KTB Selection Prairie Diamond
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:16am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Prairie Diamond | 7/2 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Lunar Orbit | 11/2 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| Avada Kedavra | 11/1 | William Hill, 12:15am |
| God of Fire | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Raffles Nobu | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Miss Kassiopi | 16/1 | 7Bet, 12:15am |
| King of The Bronx | 66/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Chillhi | 66/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Charles Morin | 25/1 | 7Bet, 12:15am |
| Lord Cauvelliere | 25/1 | 7Bet, 12:15am |
| Estate Planning | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
| Inca | 2/1 | Bet365, 12:15am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:48 Hereford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hereford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hereford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hereford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Hereford?
Prairie Diamond has won here from two starts and Miss Kassiopi has also won here from two runs.
How many horses are dropping in class?
Prairie Diamond, Avada Kedavra and God of Fire are all dropping in class.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Prairie Diamond, King of The Bronx, Estate Planning and Inca have no experience of good to firm ground.
Who are the habitual front-runners in the field?
Prairie Diamond and Charles Morin tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hereford?
Nick Scholfield has a 27% strike rate at Hereford from 11 runs.
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