What is Dorian Provost's strike rate?

Dorian Provost has won 67 of 798 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Dorian Provost do best at?

Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 13 wins from 102 rides (12.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Dorian Provost ride most for?

Y Barberot, with 140 rides since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (11.4%).

Is Dorian Provost in form?

In the last 14 days: 26 rides, 4 winners, a strike rate of 15.4%. That is above the baseline of 8.4% since 2022.

What is Dorian Provost's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 797 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Dorian Provost

798 rides in the last 5 seasons · 465 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

In form — 4 winners last 14 days Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2022→)

from 1 Jan 2022

67–798

Wins / Runs

8.4%

Strike rate

n=798

197 (25%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=797 · 0.83 incl. margin

−45.67

£1 level stake

n=798 at SP · −5.7%

£1.47m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

9.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 160 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (58 rides). The rider is in form now — 4 winners in the last fortnight, above their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 798 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Sep 28.1% when favourite Y Barberot: 11.4% from 140 Claiming: 9.1% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −23.60 to a £1 stake over 207 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is firing: 4 winners from 26 rides in the last 14 days (15.4%, 7pts above the 8.4% baseline). Y Barberot supplies 18% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.4% vs 8.4%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (13.7%, n=197) and off a 31-60-day break (13.5%, n=141). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 4.6% over 219 rides, 3.8pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix Gladiateur at Longchamp (FR) (Sep 2026, £36,600). Seasonally, the rider fires May–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8%−0.4

n=462 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −54.50

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

10.3%+1.9

n=58 · A/E 0.99 · £1 +53.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.3%−2.1

n=207 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −23.60

When favourite

28.1%

n=64 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −6.90

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.1%+0.7

n=363 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −70.30

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.2%−2.2

n=356 · A/E 0.98 · £1 +46.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

16.7%+8.3

n=18 · A/E 2.45 · £1 +20.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With M Cesandri 15.4% vs 8.4% · n=65

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 13.7% vs 8.4% · n=197

Off a 31-60-day break 13.5% vs 8.4% · n=141

With M Brasme 2.2% vs 8.4% · n=46

With first-time headgear 3.2% vs 8.4% · n=62

Over 6f – 7f 4.6% vs 8.4% · n=219

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 795 67 8.4% −42.67

Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 384 26 6.8% −58.85

Soft 176 18 10.2% −54.42

Good to Soft 140 15 10.7% +115.60

Heavy 58 4 6.9% −31.50

Good 36 4 11.1% −12.50

Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville 229 17 7.4% −23.25

Chantilly 204 14 6.9% −47.50

Saint-Cloud 142 10 7% −93.40

Longchamp (FR) 102 13 12.7% +119.00

Vichy (FR) 22 4 18.2% +5.00

Compiegne (FR) 13 0 0% −13.00

Lyon Parilly (FR) 10 3 30% +4.93

Lyon-La Soie (FR) 9 0 0% −9.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 8 1 12.5% +33.00

Salon-de-Provence (FR) 7 2 28.6% +10.25

Dieppe (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 6 1 16.7% +4.80

Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00

Moulins (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Nancy (FR) 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 3 35 3 8.6% −18.00

Class 4 23 2 8.7% −8.67

Class 1 22 5 22.7% +89.40

Class 2 12 1 8.3% −3.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 70 19 27.1% 1.09 −7.90

2nd–3rd fav 127 18 14.2% 0.97 −31.07

4th–6th fav 222 15 6.8% 0.85 −52.00

7th+ in betting 379 15 4% 1.20 +45.30

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Just In Time Game (FR) 13 1 3 24 May 26

Allurre (FR) 12 3 4 19 Oct 26

Her Christopher (FR) 9 2 5 19 Oct 26

Chance (GB) 9 2 4 3 Feb 24

Memphis Tennessee (FR) 8 1 4 27 Oct 26

A Beauregard (FR) 7 1 2 18 Oct 26

Highbari (FR) 7 0 3 13 Oct 26

Pertusato (FR) 7 0 3 6 Jul 25

Moonwalk Step (FR) 7 2 3 10 Oct 24

Zasymoka (FR) 6 1 3 18 Oct 26

Colgan Senora (FR) 6 1 3 3 Oct 26

Zilya (FR) 6 0 0 6 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 465 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

4 from 26 15.4% · +7.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days15.4%

5-season base8.4%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

957811101315105133

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardY Barberot

18% of all rides
11.4% SR · A/E 0.99

TrainerRWSR£1

Y Barberot 140 16 11.4% −48.80

M Cesandri 65 10 15.4% +63.73

N Caullery 54 3 5.6% −12.50

H-F Devin 50 5 10% +18.20

M Brasme 46 1 2.2% −32.70

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2022→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.47m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 24 wins

Odemar (FR) — Prix Gladiateur Longchamp (FR) · Sep 2026 · Group 3

£36,600

Vanta (FR) — Qatar Prix de la Place de l'Etoile Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2026 · Class 1

£36,000

Colgan Senora (FR) — Sumbe Grand Handicap (3yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2025

£29,752

Notable horses

Allurre (FR) Chance (GB) Her Christopher (FR) Moonwalk Step (FR) Barbate (GB) Odemar (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Anodin (IRE) 22.2% · 6–27

Progeny have won 8.8% of 2,444 runs since 2018 (275 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.4% from 116.

Recoletos (FR) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 9.6% of 826 runs since 2022 (115 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 13.4% from 202.

Le Havre (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 12.4% of 5,884 runs since 2013 (750 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.5% from 296.

Sidestep (AUS) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 9% of 654 runs since 2019 (65 horses).

Wootton Bassett (GB) 0% · 0–17

Progeny have won 13% of 5,698 runs since 2015 (792 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Zarak (FR) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 15.2% of 2,028 runs since 2021 (329 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 18.3% from 278. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.7% from 373. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.6% from 257. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.9% from 203.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 798 · newest first

The latest 50 of 798 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 May 2022 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Sonny Angel (GB)T: M Munch Prix Du Vexin NormandClass 2 · 12.5f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 11/2

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Cedrus (FR)T: Louis Bernhardt Prix De De BeaufaiClass 3 · 12.5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 40/1

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Feelgood (FR)T: M Brasme Prix De Voltaire6.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 25/1

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Havanista (GB)T: H-F Devin Prix De Croissanville7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 14/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Vadazal (FR)T: M Seror Prix Du Poteau Des Brulis9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 13th 40/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Silver Reel (FR)T: Thibault Speicher Prix Du Domaine De Valgenceuse8f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 10/1

05 Nov 26 Chantilly (FR) Danaflo (FR)T: Y Barberot Prix Du Labyrinthe De Buis8f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 9/1

04 Nov 26 Le Croise-Laroche (FR) Baboshka (IRE)T: P Adda Prix De La Rianderie12.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 3/1

04 Nov 26 Le Croise-Laroche (FR) Eloise (FR)T: M Brasme Prix Victor & Luc Nolf12.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 7/2

02 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Shirdihenge (FR)T: Kevin Plisson Prix Alexandre Roussel8f · Heavy · 14 ran 12th 28/1

02 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Jiepies Melody (FR)T: C Plisson Prix Madame Claude RougetClass 4 · 8f · Heavy · 16 ran 6th 14/1

02 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Mister Bryan (FR)T: C Plisson Prix Go InterimClass 4 · 8f · Heavy · 15 ran 8th 11/1

01 Nov 26 Nancy (FR) Shalom (FR)T: M Seror Prix Monastir10f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 6th 100/30

01 Nov 26 Nancy (FR) Sarastro (FR)T: N Caullery Prix Race And CareClass 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 9/2

01 Nov 26 Nancy (FR) Rouvray (GB)T: Mme J Hendriks Prix Du Square De LiegeClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 3rd 8/1

01 Nov 26 Nancy (FR) Djin's (FR)T: M Seror Prix Saturne (asso Avenir)15f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 11/8F

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Francqueville (FR)T: Y Barberot Prix Du Plateau De La Madrie9.5f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 9/1

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Inventer (FR)T: M Cesandri Prix Du Pays De Caux9.5f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 12/1

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Parvage (GB)T: Y Barberot Prix Du Pays De Bray9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 14th 20/1

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Carmontelle (FR)T: H-F Devin Prix La Bamba6.5f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Dorian Provost's strike rate?: Dorian Provost has won 67 of 798 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.4% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Dorian Provost do best at?: Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 13 wins from 102 rides (12.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Dorian Provost ride most for?: Y Barberot, with 140 rides since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (11.4%).
Is Dorian Provost in form?: In the last 14 days: 26 rides, 4 winners, a strike rate of 15.4%. That is above the baseline of 8.4% since 2022.
What is Dorian Provost's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 797 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.