Horse profile
Simpson's Paradox (IRE)
by Mastercraftsman (IRE) out of Alpha Lupi (IRE) (Rahy)
26 runs · 18 courses · from May 2022
As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
Won at Killarney
Last run 19 Oct 2026 · 6th of 16
Last raced off OR 42
KTB Profile
Simpson's Paradox is 1 win from 26 starts, with that success coming at Killarney over 1m – 1m1f on heavy ground in Sep 2023 off a mark of 74. Typically held up, he has raced 14 times at 1m – 1m1f. He finished 6 of 16 at Gowran Park in Oct 2026, last raced off OR 42 which was 48lb below his highest ever mark.
Based on 26 archived runs · run-style from 12 commented runs since Aug 2024 · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
Typically held up
OR ↓ 48lb off peak
- 1–26Wins / Runs
- 3.8%Strike rate
- 5 (19.2%)Placed
- −21.67£1 level staken=26 at SP
- 0.37Fair A/E n=26 · 0.30 incl. margin
- 90Highest OR
- 65dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating42↓ 48lb off peak
42
42–90
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 96
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 10 | 93C | 71.5 | 3 runs · 93 / 69 |
| Heavy | 5 | 105B | 70 | 1 run · — |
| Good to Soft | 3 | 114C | 75 | — |
| Good | 3 | 72C | 66 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 14 | 105B | 70.5 | 3 runs · 93 / 69 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 4 | 114C | 67 | 1 run · — |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 96B | 75 | 1 run · — |
| 1m5f – 2m | 1 | — | — | — |
Jumps
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 28 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m5f – 2m | 2 | 88B | 66.5 | — |
Of 26 runs looked at, 2 have no figure: did not complete (1) · obstacles omitted — the race ran a shortened course (1).
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 24 figures from 26 runs · as at 27 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 12 analysed runs since Aug 2024
- Held up 9 (75%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 2 (17%) · 0 wins
- Led 1 (8%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 10.6% of 11,634 runs since Jan 2008 (842 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 23 | 2 | 8.7% | −1.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 1,345 | 156 | 11.6% | +1 | — |
| Good | 2,974 | 345 | 11.6% | +1 | 0 from 4 |
| Good to Soft | 1,532 | 166 | 10.8% | +0.2 | 0 from 4 |
| Soft | 1,969 | 182 | 9.2% | −1.4 | 0 from 11 |
| Heavy | 660 | 70 | 10.6% | 0 | 1 from 6 |
| Standard (AW) | 3,130 | 310 | 9.9% | −0.7 | 0 from 1 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 54 | 5 | 9.3% | −1.3 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,384 | 119 | 8.6% | −2 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 2,332 | 217 | 9.3% | −1.3 | 1 from 14 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3,816 | 438 | 11.5% | +0.9 | 0 from 4 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 2,587 | 285 | 11% | +0.4 | 0 from 5 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 1,087 | 114 | 10.5% | −0.1 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 326 | 44 | 13.5% | +2.9 | — |
| Over 3m | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | +8.2 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 27 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
Alpha Lupi (IRE) (Rahy)
6 siblings in the archive, 5 winners — best of them Alpha Centauri (IRE) (6 wins).
The wins came over 6f–1m; the highest grade won is Group 1 (Alpha Centauri (IRE)).
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha Centauri (IRE) | 10 | 6 | 6f–1m | Group 1 |
| Alpine Star (IRE) | 9 | 3 | 7f–1m | Group 1 |
| Discoveries (IRE) | 6 | 2 | 7f | Group 1 |
| Tenth Star (IRE) | 9 | 1 | 7f | Listed |
| Elitiste (IRE) | 5 | 1 | 7f | — |
| Bennu (IRE) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft | 11 | 0 | 0% | −11.00 |
| Heavy | 6 | 1 | 17% | −1.67 |
| Good to Soft | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Good | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Standard (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Class 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killarney | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.33 |
| Gowran Park | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Navan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Bellewstown | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Galway | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Gowran Park (IRE) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Down Royal | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Curragh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Dundalk (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Fairyhouse | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Punchestown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cork | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ballinrobe | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leicester | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Pontefract | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Windsor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Listowel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Leopardstown | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 14 | 1 | 7% | −9.67 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Foley | 8 | 0 | 0% | −8.00 |
| Keithen Kennedy | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Conor Maxwell | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Scott McCullagh | 2 | 1 | 50% | +2.33 |
| Chris Hayes | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| James Ryan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Sam Ewing | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| J J Slevin | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Conor Tierney | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jack Kearney | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Adam Caffrey | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Gina Mangan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Rowan Scott | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Kieran Shoemark | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Tongue tie | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Blinkers | 4 | 1 | 25% | +0.33 |
| Tongue tie + blinkers | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Visor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 2024 | 9 | 0 | 0% | −9.00 |
| 2023 | 6 | 1 | 17% | −1.67 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Type | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 22 | 1 | 5% | −17.67 |
| Hurdle | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 19 Oct 26+121d | Gowran Park (IRE) | Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I) Slowly away and soon among the backmarkers - still 14th at halfway before progress 2f out - kept on until no more to give inside final furlong to finish 6th | 6/16 | nk | 8-10 | 42 | 69C | 62A | Keithen Kennedy | 11/1 |
| 20 Jun 26+8d | Down Royal | Mongey Communications Handicap (0-60) Hesitant start - settled at back of field - urged forward 3f out - still down in 10th 2f out - improved to 8th with a furlong left - stayed on late to grab 3rd | 3/12 | 2¼ | 8-11 | 46 | 57A | 55A | Keithen Kennedy | 14/1 |
| 12 Jun 26+89d | Gowran Park | Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60) Held up towards the back - pushed along with no headway approaching 2f out - stayed on same speed late but well held | 8/14 | ¾ | 8-13 | 48 | 93C | 62A | Keithen Kennedy | 22/1 |
| 15 Mar 26+30d | Curragh | 1xBet.ie Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Held up towards the back - made no progress through the contest - well held at the finish | 20/26 | ½ | 8-10 | 52 | -1C | 52C | Chris Hayes | 11/1 |
| 13 Feb 26+62d | Dundalk (AW) | Dundalk Winter Series Leading Trainer & Jockey Championship Handicap (0-60) Slow to break and settled towards the back - pushed along with no headway 2f out - stayed on same gear through the final furlong to finish 7th | 7/13 | 1 | 9-10 | 54 | 96B | 75A | James Ryan | 16/1 |
| 2025 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 13 Dec 25+30d | Fairyhouse | Easter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Novice Handicap Hurdle Held up towards the back of the pack - made little impression through the race - dropped away and pulled up before 2 out | PU/18 | — | 10-6 | 90 | — | — | Sam Ewing | 66/1 |
| 13 Nov 25+24d | Punchestown | Matchbook Supporting Irish Racing Maiden Hurdle Held up towards the back - unable to make progress before 2 out - dropped away after 2 out | 15/21 | 4½ | 11-12 | — | — | 102C | J J Slevin | 80/1 |
| 20 Oct 25+317d | Gowran Park | Racing Club Membership Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) Sat handy behind front group early - 6th at halfway - shifted middle of course and pushed along 2f out - unable to threaten and stayed on same gear to finish 6th | 6/15 | shd | 9-10 | 54 | 70C | 91A | Scott McCullagh | 5/1 |
| 2024 · 9 runs | ||||||||||
| 07 Dec 24+34d | Navan | Mervyn Gray Construction Maiden Hurdle (Div 1) Held up at the back pulling hard - pushed along in mid-pack 2 out - unable to close and well held | 12/19 | 2½ | 11-0 | — | 45C | 79C | Conor Tierney | 125/1 |
| 03 Nov 24+25d | Cork | Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle Held up towards back of field - pushed along with little headway made approaching the straight - stayed on same speed to the line - finished eighth | 8/15 | 5½ | 11-2 | — | 88B | 94A | Jack Kearney | 12/1 |
| 09 Oct 24+47d | Navan | Yellow Furze Handicap (47-65) (Div 1) Handy early - pressed for effort 3f out - 4th approaching final furlong but unable to close - finished 8th | 8/16 | 1 | 9-11 | 60 | 114C | 69A | Conor Maxwell | 22/1 |
| 23 Aug 24+32d | Killarney | Brehon Hotel And Spa Apprentice Handicap Set the pace early - lost the advantage 6f out then pushed along in second - fought back into contention approaching the final two furlongs - couldn't find more a furlong out - finished 5th | 5/6 | 1¼ | 9-1 | 62 | 87A | 69B | Adam Caffrey | 18/1 |
| 22 Jul 24+17d | Ballinrobe | Tote Guarantee Available On-Course & At Tote.ie Handicap | 5/7 | 1¼ | 9-6 | 67 | 57A | 69A | Conor Maxwell | 16/1 |
| 05 Jul 24+39d | Bellewstown | McNally's Pharmacy 365 Handicap (47-70) | 6/14 | 3¼ | 10-2 | 70 | 66C | 73A | Conor Maxwell | 33/1 |
| 27 May 24+26d | Leicester | Leicester City FC Handicap | 5/11 | 1¼ | 8-12 | 72 | 75A | 72A | Gina Mangan | 66/1 |
| 01 May 24+16d | Pontefract | National Horseracing College Handicap | 7/9 | ¾ | 9-11 | 74 | 62C | 68C | Rowan Scott | 16/1 |
| 15 Apr 24+198d | Windsor | Ivy Crown Gardening Handicap | 11/14 | 3¼ | 9-9 | 75 | 72C | 60C | Kieran Shoemark | 12/1 |
| 2023 · 6 runs | ||||||||||
| 30 Sep 23+9d | Killarney | Download The New Tote App Median Auction Maiden | 1/7 | 9-5 | 74 | 72A | 80A | Scott McCullagh | 10/3 | |
| 21 Sep 23+23d | Listowel | Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Maiden | 5/11 | 1¾ | 9-8 | 76 | 69A | 79A | Shane Foley | 6/1 |
| 29 Aug 23+24d | Bellewstown | Tynan's Bridge House Bar Irish EBF Median Auction Maiden | 7/15 | ½ | 9-8 | 80 | 71C | 66A | Shane Foley | 7/4F |
| 05 Aug 23+17d | Galway | Bathshack Maiden | 2/11 | 1½ | 9-8 | 82 | 105B | 91A | Shane Foley | 13/8F |
| 19 Jul 23+91d | Killarney | Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden | 2/8 | ¾ | 9-8 | 82 | 74A | 80A | Shane Foley | 4/1 |
| 19 Apr 23+200d | Gowran Park | Gowran Park Golf Club Maiden | 4/10 | 2½ | 9-8 | 86 | 75A | 74A | Shane Foley | EvensF |
| 2022 · 3 runs | ||||||||||
| 01 Oct 22+25d | Killarney | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 5/10 | 2½ | 9-7 | — | 63A | 72A | Shane Foley | 9/2 |
| 06 Sep 22+116d | Galway | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 3/11 | nk | 9-7 | — | 80A | 82A | Shane Foley | 9/2 |
| 13 May 22 | Leopardstown | Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden | 6/7 | 1¾ | 9-7 | — | 29A | 57A | Shane Foley | 4/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Simpson's Paradox won?
- Simpson's Paradox (IRE) won 1 of 26 archived starts between 2022 and 2026, a strike rate of 3.8%. Placed 5 times in total (19.2% of starts).
- Who trains Simpson's Paradox?
- Simpson's Paradox (IRE) is trained by John Andrew Kinsella, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 19 October 2026.
- Who is Simpson's Paradox's sire?
- Simpson's Paradox (IRE) is by Mastercraftsman (IRE) out of Alpha Lupi (IRE), whose sire is Rahy.
- What going does Simpson's Paradox prefer?
- Simpson's Paradox (IRE) has the best record on heavy going: 1 win from 6 starts (16.7%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Simpson's Paradox's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 42, from the run on 19 October 2026. The highest on record is 90.
- What is Simpson's Paradox's sire's record?
- Mastercraftsman (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 10.6% of 11,634 runs since Jan 2008 (842 horses), Flat and jumps together.
- Who are Simpson's Paradox's siblings?
- Out of Alpha Lupi (IRE), Simpson's Paradox (IRE) has 6 other produce in our archive, 5 of them winners. Most wins: Alpha Centauri (IRE) (6). Highest grade won: Group 1 (Alpha Centauri (IRE)). The wins came over 6f–1m. As at Oct 2026.