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Trainer profile

John Andrew Kinsella

191 runners in the last 5 seasons · 29 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 93% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)
from 1 Jan 2022
10–191
Wins / Runs
5.2%
Strike rate
n=191
36 (19%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=191 · 0.84 incl. margin
−104.25
£1 level stake
n=191 at SP · −54.6%
£304k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
2.6%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05).

Deterministic profile computed from 191 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 5.3% Claiming riders: 5.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Curragh (10.8%, n=37), clear of the yard's 5.2% baseline. The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (8.3%, n=60).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%+0.1
n=38 · A/E 1.82 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+7.3
n=8 · A/E 3.11 · £1 +4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.2
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.2
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
25%+19.8
n=4 · A/E 7.56 · £1 +8.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%+0.1
n=76 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −47.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Curragh 10.8% vs 5.2% · n=37
With a new jockey booking 1.9% vs 5.2% · n=103
Off a 15-30-day break 8.3% vs 5.2% · n=60
On Good going 8.1% vs 5.2% · n=74
Over 6f – 7f 7.9% vs 5.2% · n=101
On Soft going 7.3% vs 5.2% · n=55
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 178 10 5.6% −91.25
Hurdle 9 0 0% −9.00
NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 74 6 8.1% −31.75
Soft 55 4 7.3% −10.50
Standard (AW) 22 0 0% −22.00
Heavy 16 0 0% −16.00
Good to Soft 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 37 4 10.8% −8.00
Naas 24 2 8.3% −4.00
Dundalk (AW) 19 0 0% −19.00
Gowran Park 15 1 6.7% −11.00
Navan 14 1 7.1% −10.25
Leopardstown 13 0 0% −13.00
Fairyhouse 10 1 10% −1.00
Cork 8 0 0% −8.00
Roscommon 8 0 0% −8.00
Limerick 8 1 12.5% +13.00
Killarney 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Sligo 4 0 0% −4.00
Down Royal 3 0 0% −3.00
Listowel 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00
Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 2 16.7% 0.85 −4.25
2nd–3rd fav 15 1 6.7% 0.59 −8.50
4th–6th fav 39 5 12.8% 1.85 +0.50
7th+ in betting 125 2 1.6% 0.73 −92.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Moltophino (IRE) 29 2 12 15 Oct 26
Tawaazon (IRE)from James McAuley 29 1 6 4 Oct 26
Bellaphina (IRE) 22 4 7 4 Oct 25
Simpson's Paradox (IRE)from Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 14 0 1 19 Oct 26
Legendsoftheland (IRE)then Adrian Wintle 10 0 0 19 May 25
Sleepless Knight (IRE) 10 0 0 7 Aug 24
Cage Rattler (IRE)then Sandy Forster 9 1 2 29 May 24
Rio Doce (IRE) 8 0 1 12 Oct 26
Engines On (IRE)from Mrs Prunella Dobbs 8 2 3 29 Aug 26
Play It Again Zaam (IRE)then Conor David Maxwell 8 0 0 27 Oct 23
Terre De Vega (GB)from William Haggas 7 0 1 18 Oct 26
Time'll Tell (GB) 5 0 0 24 Aug 23
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 29 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mrs Prunella Dobbs (2); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00062034013000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderConor Maxwell
26% of all rides
4.1% SR · A/E 1.74
RiderRWSR£1
Conor Maxwell 49 2 4.1% −20.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→
12
Archived wins
£343k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Bellaphina (IRE) — GAIN Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Jun 2025
£59,000
Bellaphina (IRE) — DNG Spring Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · May 2023
£29,500
Moltophino (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Habitat Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · May 2025
£29,500
Notable horses
Bellaphina (IRE) Moltophino (IRE) Definite Soldier (IRE) Engines On (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE) Cage Rattler (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Profitable (IRE) 6.5% · 2–31
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,408 runs since 2008 (356 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 3.4% · 1–29
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,816 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
James Garfield (IRE) 18.2% · 4–22
Progeny have won 9% of 722 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.1% from 183.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,628 runs since 2008 (842 horses).
Decorated Knight (GB) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.8% of 970 runs since 2008 (84 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.3% from 286. Weakest on Soft going: 5.7% from 141.
Legends Of War (USA) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 7.7% of 65 runs since 2008 (6 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 231 · newest first

The latest 50 of 231 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 July 2017 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Simpson's Paradox (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 6th 11/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Terre De Vega (GB)J: Terry Casey Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap8.5f · Good · 16 ran 9th 28/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Moltophino (IRE)J: Chris Hayes DNG Nationwide Handicap6f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 9/2J
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Rio Doce (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Thank You For Your Support Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 2nd 80/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Howya Pal (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 250/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Terre De Vega (GB)J: Terry Casey 1xBet.ie Proud Partners Of Irish Sport Apprentice Handicap8f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 28/1
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Business Plus Handicap6f · Soft · 22 ran 20th 40/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Moltophino (IRE)J: Declan McDonogh Kwiff Supercharged Joe McGrath Handicap5f · Yielding · 20 ran 3rd 15/2
19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 5/2F
19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Deeno Bambino (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Quinnbet Extra Place Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 14/1
05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Moltophino (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse On 6th & 13th December Handicap5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 11/4F
29 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Shay Wallace Holden Plant Rentals Apprentice Handicap6f · Yielding · 19 ran 5th 12/1
29 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Engines On (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy Tote Irish Cambridgeshire8f · Good · 17 ran 15th 33/1
23 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Big Evs At Tally-Ho Handicap5f · Good · 19 ran 5th 5/1
22 Aug 26 Curragh (IRE) Moltophino (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Mitsubishi Electric Handicap6f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 9/2
03 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Terry Casey Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap5f · Good · 15 ran 4th 7/1
03 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Moltophino (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap6f · Good · 11 ran 9th 6/1
28 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Howya Pal (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Caulfield Industrial Irish EBF Maiden7f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 100/1
28 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Terre De Vega (GB)J: Keithen Kennedy COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap8.5f · Yielding · 17 ran 16th 80/1
18 Jul 26 Curragh (IRE) Tawaazon (IRE)J: Keithen Kennedy WTW Willis Handicap5f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 9th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Andrew Kinsella's strike rate?
John Andrew Kinsella has won 10 of 191 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Andrew Kinsella do best at?
Curragh by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 runners (10.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is John Andrew Kinsella in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Andrew Kinsella's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 191 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).