Adam Carter
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.14). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 21% (58 rides).
The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (16.9%, n=77), clear of the rider's 10% baseline. It is weakest at Thirsk (0% over 34 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.7% (n=58, Fair A/E 1.09), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.3% (n=88, Fair A/E 0.38). Bryan Smart supplied 36% of the rides and edges the rider's average (13.4% vs 10%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well on Soft going (19.4%, n=36). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 4.7% over 64 rides, 5.3pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired Nov–Jan.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 534 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 534 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 29 October 2005 to 15 January 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Adam Carter's strike rate?
- Adam Carter has won 50 of 498 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Adam Carter do best at?
- Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 77 rides (16.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Adam Carter ride most for?
- Bryan Smart, with 179 rides since 2008 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (13.4%).
- What is Adam Carter's Fair A/E?
- 1.14, from 494 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.